2024 MLB Home Run Derby preview: Who will be this season’s long-bombs-away champion?

If everything is bigger in Texas, the homers better be, too.

The 2024 Home Run Derby is just around the corner. On Monday inside the cavernous, air-conditioned baseball warehouse that is Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, an octet of strong lads will launch lasers into the seats.

It is one of the most delightful events on the baseball calendar, a day that exists primarily because it’s a darn-tootin’ good time.

Rule changes

First things first, it’s important to note that there are a few notable changes to this year’s Derby format.

Instead of beginning the event with four head-to-head matchups, the first round is leaderboard style. Everybody will hit, and then the top four homer tallies will advance, with No. 1 facing No. 4 and No. 2 facing No. 3 in the familiar bracket setup in the semifinals.

Players are still tasked with crushing as many long balls as possible within a set amount of time, but there is now a total pitches limit. A round will end either when the clock expires — three minutes for the first two rounds and two minutes for the final — or when the hitter surpasses the pitch limit of 40 for the first two rounds and 27 for the final. The change is intended to slow the pace and reduce the chaotic energy that the event has occasionally taken on since the shift from an outs-based system to clock-based system in 2015.

The bonus round has also been tweaked. Previously, every player was granted 30 seconds of bonus time and could gain another 30 seconds if they connected on two homers over 440 feet during their round. Now, the bonus round will end whenever a player records three outs (any non-home run). If a player launches one at least 425 feet within the bonus round, they’ll be granted an extra out.

So who’s going to win? Let’s assess the 2024 Home Run Derby field.

The Orioles’ second-year shortstop will be 23 years, 19 days old on Derby night, which means a victory would make him the youngest long-bombs-away champion in the event’s history. Winning the title would also earn Henderson $1 million in prize money, which would more than double his current salary; a similar dynamic happened with Pete Alonso in 2019.

And there’s a real shot Henderson makes that happen.

Only Aaron Judge has cranked more homers this season, and only Judge is likely to prevent Henderson from capturing an American League MVP trophy at season’s end. He is a generational talent who swings with a special combination of violence and control. His hack is a cherry bomb in a phone booth, devastating explosiveness in a small window.

Throwing to Henderson on Monday will be the Orioles’ Triple-A skipper, Buck Britton, the older brother of legendary O’s closer Zack Britton. Buck, 38, has been a vital cog in Baltimore’s resurgence as the culture-setter at the final waypoint for so many of the club’s franchise-altering prospects, including Henderson.

Ozuna’s inclusion raised some eyebrows across the baseball world, considering his off-field history; the Braves DH was suspended 20 games in 2021 under MLB’s domestic violence program after he was arrested and charged for allegedly grabbing his wife by the neck and throwing her against a wall. Felony charges were later dropped, but Ozuna was ordered to complete a pre-trial diversion program under charges of family violence battery and simple assault.

Between that suspension, a series of injuries and a DUI charge in August 2022, Ozuna’s career once looked destined to fade away. But after posting an abysmal .425 OPS in April 2023, the Dominican slugger authored a remarkable turnaround. Shohei Ohtani and Judge are the only players with more homers than Ozuna since May 1, 2023. His performance this season — slashing .296/.374/.568 with 24 HRs and 75 RBI — has kept the Braves in the playoff hunt.

But Ozuna’s on-field resurgence does not inherently give his story a redemption arc; the road back is more complicated than that. Many will feel uncomfortable watching him in the spotlight, being celebrated on a national stage. It’s unlikely that the nuances of this conversation will be given the appropriate depth during the Derby broadcast. Shoehorning a player with this type of past into this event was a questionable, unforced error on MLB’s part. If he wins, the league will have to reckon with the consequences.

Braves bullpen catcher José Yepez will throw to Ozuna in the Derby.

Ramírez, who is participating for the second time, would be the first switch-hitter to raise the Derby trophy. At Dodger Stadium in 2022, the stocky slugger was limited by a thumb issue that meant he could only swing comfortably right-handed. But over his career, the delightfully pugnacious slugger has almost identical HR/PA rates from the two sides. Globe Life Field is a slightly better home run park for righties, but Ramírez might mimic what Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman did in 2023 and “switch plates” mid-contest.

Junior Betances, the hitting coach for Cleveland’s Triple-A Columbus Clippers, will throw to Ramírez in the Derby. They have a close relationship dating to when Ramírez matriculated up the system. Betances was based in the Dominican Republic doing operations out of the team’s D.R. complex. Including him here is a cool gesture to a guy who has known Ramírez forever.

The big-grinning outfielder signed a hefty, one-year pact with the Dodgers last winter, hoping to rebound from a subpar 2023 in Seattle. So far, it has been a win for all involved.

Hernández has given Los Angeles some much-needed consistency, and his 19 homers are second on the team to only Ohtani. This will be his first Derby; hopefully he does better than his teammate Mookie Betts did in his first go last year.

Thankfully, Hernández has some experience on his side, as he’ll have Dodgers third-base coach Dino Ebel throwing to him. Ebel has tossed Derby dingers many times, with Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson all using him as their pitcher. Another fun story to watch is that Ebel’s son, Brady, is competing in the high school home run derby on Saturday. If he advances to the final, he’ll get to swing between the pros at the big-league Derby with his dad watching.

For better or worse, nobody cares about the Derby more than the Polar Bear.

The intense seriousness that Alonso brings to the otherwise whimsical, party-like atmosphere of the event always makes for a hilarious juxtaposition. But the Mets first baseman, set to compete for the fifth straight edition, clearly knows what he’s doing. He won in 2019 and 2021. Another title in Arlington would tie him with Ken Griffey Jr. for the most Derby victories in MLB history. There were even some rumblings that his inclusion in the All-Star Game — Alonso was an MLB selection — was partially motivated by his inclination to compete in the Derby only if he were in the game.

Throwing to the impending free agent will be veteran baseball dude Dave Jauss, who threw to Alonso in ‘21 and ‘22. The 67-year-old Jauss, who is currently in the Washington Nationals‘ front office, has served as a big-league coach for the Mets, Pirates, Orioles, Dodgers and Red Sox. His outrageously consistent batting practice pitching performances in his two previous Derby outings made Jauss something of a baseball cult hero. It’s great to have him back in the mix.

The local guy and the only participant who wasn’t selected to the All-Star Game, García also competed in 2023. Texas’ only position player elected to the game, Marcus Semien, would’ve been an underwhelming fit, so good on MLB for finding another Ranger to step up. With the exception of Los Angeles in 2022, there has been a hometown hitter in every Derby since 2012.

García disappointed last year, cranking just 17 first-round taters, the second-lowest total in the event. He looked particularly exhausted after falling to fellow Cuban-born outfielder Randy Arozarena. He also failed to get the 440-foot home run bonus, which sank his round.

Rangers third-base coach Tony Beasley pitched to García last year, but it’s unclear if he’ll be throwing again.

García might live and play in Arlington now, but Witt grew up just 30 minutes from Globe Life Field. The entire All-Star experience (Witt’s first) will be something of a homecoming for the exhilarating Royals shortstop, but the Derby will be the biggest spotlight.

The 24-year-old has only 15 long balls this year, but that total is somewhat deflated by his home ballpark; Kauffman Stadium is one of the worst home-run parks in MLB. If Witt played all his home games at Dodger Stadium, for instance, Statcast says he would have 25 homers. And while this is Junior’s first Derby as a big leaguer, he won the annual high school derby that happens during one of the breaks of the MLB edition as a rising senior in 2018.

Pitching to him will be a former MLB reliever and Witt’s brother-in-law, James Russell. All three of Witt’s sisters married big leaguers, but Russell gets the nod for Junior’s first Derby performance. It’s something of a surprise that his father, Bobby Witt Sr., a former big-league pitcher himself and the individual who has thrown more batting practice to Junior than anyone, didn’t get the nod.

Nobody in MLB this season has more doubles than Bohm, whose 31 two-baggers lead baseball by five over Francisco Lindor. Unfortunately for him, this is a home run competition, not a doubles contest.

But Bohm is no slap hitter. Believe it or not, he has the fifth-longest average home run distance in this field, ahead of Hernández, García and Ramírez and just 3 feet behind Henderson. And seven of Bohm’s 11 round-trippers this year have been hit more than 400 feet. Also, he hits in a lineup that features Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, both of whom have top-of-the-charts juice, which might overshadow some of his power.

Bohm won a Home Run Derby while playing in the Coastal Plains college summer league and has tabbed the same guy who threw to him that day, Scott Wingo, for the big one. Wingo was a national champion at the University of South Carolina and played minor-league baseball for a few years before moving into college coaching. He is now the recruiting coordinator at Manhattan College.

If Bohm loses, at least he’ll end up with a mountain of doubles.

Prediction

Hometown favorite Bobby Witt Jr. defeats fellow hot-shot shortstop Gunnar Henderson in the final.