3 things to know about the SEC: Georgia, Texas lead big group of playoff contenders

Winning your conference is very important in the era of the expanded College Football Playoff.

The top four conference champions will receive byes to the second round of the 12-team postseason. With just four power conferences remaining following the demise of the Pac-12, a conference title is essentially a guaranteed off week.

With the 2024 season quickly approaching, here’s a look at the SEC as the conference enters year one of its post-Nick Saban era.

SEC champion odds

Are Georgia and Texas really the clear favorites?

The Bulldogs enter 2024 as the betting favorites for both the SEC title and the national title. It’s easy to see why. QB Carson Beck is a Heisman favorite entering his second season as a starter and there’s four- and five-star talent all around him. Plus, this is a team that will surely be motivated after missing the playoff a season ago following an SEC title game loss to Alabama.

The running game should be in good hands with Florida transfer Trevor Etienne. Georgia has always gone with a committee approach at running back under Kirby Smart, but Etienne should be the lead back after averaging 5.7 yards a carry and scoring eight touchdowns a season ago.

Georgia’s defense will be incredibly deep again and should be very good against the pass. The Bulldogs were much better against opposing passers in 2023 and didn’t allow more than 200 yards passing in any of the final five games of the season.

The biggest question is a schedule that’s the toughest for any playoff contender. The Bulldogs visit Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, while Tennessee visits Athens. That’s four games against the next five teams with the best odds to win the conference.

Texas hosts the Bulldogs on Oct. 19, a week after playing Oklahoma in the teams’ first rivalry game as members of the SEC. The Longhorns reloaded at wide receiver for QB Quinn Ewers after Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell were early round draft picks. Former Alabama WR Isaiah Bond transferred to Austin along with ex-Oregon State WR Silas Bolden and former Alabama TE Amari Niblack. The team also signed five-star WR Ryan Wingo as part of the class of 2024.

Jaydon Blue is now the primary running back after a preseason knee injury to CJ Baxter. He was the team’s primary rusher as a freshman in 2023 after Jonathon Brooks’ season-ending knee injury. The defense needs to replace linemen Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat, but should still be stout up front. Don’t be surprised if Texas is a slight favorite at Michigan in Week 2.

Ole Miss doesn’t have Alabama on the schedule this season as it has loaded up for a College Football Playoff run. The Rebels lost RB Quinshon Judkins and WR Dayton Wade but bring back nearly everyone else on offense. Former South Carolina WR Antwane Wells will be an impact transfer if he’s fully recovered from the foot injury that sidelined him in 2023.

The defensive line has also been bolstered through the transfer portal. The Rebels were bossed by both the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs a season ago and it’s clear the line was a priority heading into 2024.

As you know by now, it’s a new era in Alabama, with coach Kalen DeBoer replacing the retired Nick Saban. Alabama lost a fair amount through the transfer portal in the offseason and there are questions at wide receiver. But we trust DeBoer’s offensive track record as a head coach and are more intrigued with the defense under former South Alabama head coach Kane Wommack. The Tide also have a tough schedule with road games at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma and a home game vs. Missouri along with the matchup against Georgia on Sept. 28.

How many SEC teams make the playoff?

Seven SEC teams can reasonably harbor College Football Playoff hopes. And it’s a certainty that the SEC won’t get seven teams in the 12-team field.

Four or five feels like the right number. If five SEC teams get in and all four of the favorites to win the SEC make the playoff, that leaves just one spot for the rest of the conference.

If we had to pick the fifth playoff team we’d go with Missouri. The Tigers reloaded the defense through the transfer portal and have QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden III back for another season. Mizzou also has perhaps the most favorable schedule in the SEC. The Tigers don’t have to play Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss or LSU.

LSU is replacing Heisman winner Jayden Daniels along with NFL first-round WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. The offense should still be very good with Garrett Nussmeier taking over for Daniels, but it’s reasonable to expect some regression. The Tigers hope to make up for that step back with an improved defense under former Missouri DC Blake Baker. LSU gave up 6.1 yards per play in 2023. That number needs to improve significantly for the Tigers to have a chance at making the playoff.

Tennessee fans have very high hopes for former five-star QB Nico Iamaleava as he takes over for Joe Milton. Iamaleava flashed his potential in the Citrus Bowl win against Iowa and will have WRs Squirrel White and Bru McCoy back to throw to. The UT defensive line should be one of the best in the conference with DE James Pearce (10 sacks) back. Coach Josh Heupel’s return to Norman on Sept. 21 against Oklahoma will be a fun one.

Texas A&M’s odds to win the conference seem a bit inflated. The Aggies could and should be better in Mike Elko’s first season than they were in the last season of the Jimbo Fisher era. But the leap from seven wins to SEC title contender is a big one. A healthy season from QB Conner Weigman will go a long way. He suffered a foot injury in September of 2023 that sidelined him for the rest of the year.

Who else can make a leap?

In 2022, both Tennessee and LSU won four more games than they did in 2021. A season ago, Missouri improved by five wins. Will any team that we haven’t mentioned above make a similar leap into contention as a preseason contender has a down year?

Kentucky is intriguing with the additions of former Georgia QB Brock Vandagriff and former Ohio State RB Chip Trayanum. The Wildcats lost five of their last six SEC games in 2023 as the passing defense couldn’t stop opposing QBs from completing passes. Offenses completed nearly 68% of their throws last year against the Wildcats. Fixing that is a massive priority given games against Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas.

Auburn could be 4-0 before Oklahoma visits on Sept. 28. The Tigers need a leap from QB Payton Thorne in his second year on the plains. The former Michigan State QB completed 61% of his throws for just 1,755 yards a season ago. After the Sooners visit for Auburn’s fifth home game in five weeks, the Tigers head to Georgia, Missouri and Kentucky for their next three games. That could be a season-defining stretch.