8 bold predictions for MMA’s 2025: Jon Jones’ next step, Tony Ferguson, Conor McGregor and more

The offseason is a short one in mixed martial arts.

What do we mean? Well, we’re barely three days removed from the final major MMA show of 2024, and yet this time next week, weigh-ins will already be locked and loaded for the first UFC event of 2025.

While that may not give us much time to stop and find our bearings, it does at least offer a brief window to pop on our prognostication hats and let loose with a few irresponsible and likely totally off-the-mark takes about the wonders in store for this volatile sport over the next 12 months. Join Uncrowned staffers Chuck Mindenhall, Ben Fowlkes, Petesy Carroll and Drake Riggs as we ring in the new year with our boldest MMA predictions for 2025.

1. Tom Aspinall will … lose

Mindenhall: It sounds preposterous to even say.

Aspinall has been so patient as the interim champ, so good, so above the board. It’s easy to like him. He carries power in his hands and makes fighting look easy. God bless him. But I know how this game works, and I know its cruelties like a loon knows his lake. MMA is where feel-good stories go to die. It might be Jon Jones that beats him, but probably not. It’ll be something far more anticlimactic. It’ll be Ciryl Gane who pulls the trigger.

Don’t shoot the messenger, I don’t like this any more than you do. But the crystal ball can be a little mean when shaken.

2. Jon Jones retires, but won’t stay that way…

Fowlkes: All the will-they-won’t-they drama surrounding a potential heavyweight title fight between Jones and Tom Aspinall has temporarily obscured the bigger picture for Jones.

I don’t think his retirement talk was entirely a ploy. I think he believes he’s just about ready to be done. I also think, whether he retires before or after a fight with Aspinall, he won’t be able to stay in the rocking chair very long. I think it’ll drive Jones crazy to see how fast the UFC promotional machine moves on to proclaiming someone else the GOAT. I think he’s been a UFC champ for so long that, at least at first, he won’t know who he is if he’s not that. So I think he’ll come back.

I think it’ll happen pretty quickly, too.

And if Alex Pereira still has his title by then, watch out.

3. UFC parts ways with Conor McGregor

Carroll: McGregor losing a sexual assault civil case was one of the biggest stories in Ireland in 2024 and his brands were swiftly boycotted en masse in the aftermath.

One more mishap in a career littered with them could force the UFC to part ways with its golden goose. And with McGregor’s interests seemingly veering towards the influencer boxing circuit, who would honestly be surprised if 2025 proved to be the end of his UFC tenure?

4. UFC finally invites one more division to the party

Riggs: It’s been overdue for quite some time, but I’m calling it here: UFC finally adds the women’s atomweight division to its roster in 2025.

I’ve long been all for the inclusion of 105 pounds on the world’s biggest MMA stage. My only issue with UFC opening those floodgates is my lack of trust in it being done right.

Atomweight has arguably been one of the two best women’s divisions in the sport worldwide. The problem is just that all of its talent is spread out across the globe, making it hard for your general fan to see. The strawweight division will provide some names to fill out UFC’s atomweight incarnation, but if UFC doesn’t have the consensus best fighter at the weight on the roster — RIZIN champion Seika Izawa — calling whoever is the UFC champion “the best” will be a joke. And with “The Ultimate Fighter” refusing to die, an atomweight division will probably emerge in a similar fashion to how “TUF 20” introduced strawweight to the organization in 2014, which is not ideal.

UFC CEO Dana White’s recent openness regarding atomweight and his continuously positive relationship with RIZIN gives me more optimism than I’ve had in recent years. The 14-0 Izawa has reached the end of the rope in RIZIN, as evidenced by her ludicrous RIZIN 49 matchup against Lucia Apdelgarim, who carries a sterling pro MMA record of 2-4.

There’s never been a more perfect star atop the atomweight mountain. It’s time, UFC.

5. You’ll need more subscriptions to watch the UFC

Fowlkes: A new broadcast rights deal is coming in 2025. This much is certain.

It also seems increasingly likely that the UFC will want to break up its product and spread it out across two or more different broadcast platforms. Maybe pay-per-views stay with ESPN. Maybe UFC Fight Nights go to Netflix. Maybe the UFC creates some entirely new tier of event with a new name to make some streamer feel like it isn’t just getting leftovers.

The end result for fans will be that ESPN+ is no longer a one-stop shop for all UFC programming, and thus the costs of following MMA’s weekly comings and goings go up once more.

6. Movsar Evloev wins a title

Mindenhall: Nobody advocates for Movsar, so this must be what it feels like to be a Colorado Rockies fan. But here are the facts. Movsar hasn’t loved his workload for a while now because he appears like once a year. Very seldom do we see him. It hasn’t helped that he’s a fight game delicacy, strictly for exotic tastes. He’s the black Périgord truffle of the UFC.

Given all that, he carries a natural chip on his shoulder. He’s always a little grumpy. He wants to get things moving, so he will fight twice in 2025, and the second one will be him beating Diego Lopes (who will beat Alexander Volkanovski) for the interim featherweight title while Ilia Topuria is on a lightweight title lark. The last part is pure conjecture, as how would I know if Topuria is going up for sure?

The other stuff is in the cards, though. Mark my words, Movsar Evloev will be a champion in 2025.

7. Jon Jones STRIPPED of heavyweight title

Carroll: For well over a year, I’ve been adamant that we are hurtling towards the same standoff we saw with Francis Ngannou and Jones before “The Predator” left for PFL.

Tom Aspinall and the UFC seem to be singing off the same hymn sheet when it comes to a unified heavyweight title fight. Jones isn’t wrong to be asking for big money for the proposed bout, but that doesn’t mean the UFC will come correct.

Mark my words: Once all parties involved fail to agree on a fee, Jones will be stripped to allow Aspinall take the reins at heavyweight.

8. “El Cucuy” wins … something

Riggs: I’m about to hit you with the saddest — yet happiest — thing ever. Hear me out.

Something has to give eventually, and the MMA gods have seen (more than) enough.

In 2025, Tony Ferguson will win. It may not be an MMA fight. It may not be a boxing match or a jiu-jitsu match, but Ferguson will win some kind of professionally televised sporting activity.

Car-jitsu seems completely up Ferguson’s alley if we’re being totally honest. Karate Combat would make for a welcoming new home. Ferguson in darts feels like something he’d be oddly great at. Even if “El Cucuy” remains in UFC, Dana White has to give him the ultimate softball at some point.

Right?

Please???

Open an APEX Fight Night with it if you have to, Dana. We don’t care. Let the man win, because we know he won’t stop trying.

Just as long as it’s not slap fighting…