Premier League betting: Despite Manchester City’s status as extreme title favorites, there’s still value to be had Sunday

Oddsmakers think it’ll be a stunner if Manchester City doesn’t win the English Premier League title, but there’s still a way to get decent value on a Man City championship.

City is -1600 at BetMGM to win a fourth consecutive title on Sunday. Manchester City would be the first team in Premier League history to win four straight titles and is currently the first team since Manchester United in 2006, 2007 and 2008 to win three consecutive titles.

Man City got close to the 2024 title on Tuesday with a 2-0 win over Tottenham. The victory put City two points ahead of Arsenal before Sunday’s final day of fixtures.

Arsenal, meanwhile, is +900 to win the title despite a fairly straightforward title scenario even if it seems unlikely. Arsenal hosts Everton on Sunday as City hosts West Ham. If Arsenal beats Everton and Manchester City ties West Ham, the two teams will be tied with 89 points and Arsenal would win the league title via a superior goal difference. If Arsenal wins and City loses, Arsenal wins the league straight up.

The odds of City losing to West Ham are extremely low. But if you’re looking to profit off a Man City title, you should take the odds on the game and not the league title. Manchester City is -900 to beat West Ham. Sure, by betting that scenario you aren’t rewarded if both teams somehow lose on Sunday, but the chances of that happening are extremely slim.

A draw between West Ham and City is at +950, while West Ham is +1900 to pull the upset and put the league title race into chaos.

Arsenal, meanwhile, is -550 to beat Everton. The Toffees are +1300 to win and a tie is +650.

There’s not much meaningful at stake on Sunday outside of the title race. Aston Villa locked up fourth place and a spot in the Champions League with Tottenham’s loss on Tuesday. Villa is five points clear of Spurs. The three relegated teams have also been decided ahead of the final week of the season. Sheffield United is in last with 16 points. United is eight points behind Burnley in 19th and 10 points behind Luton Town.

Luton Town is three points behind Nottingham Forest in 17th and could tie Forest on points with a win over Fulham and a Forest loss to Burnley. However, Forest is 12 goals up in goal differential — that’s a chasm too wide for Luton Town to overcome.