Scotland's International Goods Trade: Quarter 3 2023

In the year ending September 2023 compared to the previous year, the Netherlands remained Scotland’s top goods export destination, accounting for a fifth (20%, £6.9 billion) of the value of Scotland’s goods exports during this period.

Scotland’s goods exports to the Netherlands increased by 7.9% (up £500 million) during this period, which was primarily driven by an increase in oil exports (up £295 million, 6.2%) and other transport equipment which had a very large increase in percentage terms (up £224 million, 2210.4%). A very large percentage increase in the volume of exports of other transport equipment to the Netherlands was also seen over this period. Oil exports accounted for around three quarters (74%) of the value of Scotland’s total goods exports to the Netherlands. Over half (54%) of the value of Scotland’s total oil exports were to the Netherlands.

It should be noted that the Rotterdam effect may have an impact on the interpretation of these figures; this effect refers to the possibility that trade flows through major ports like Rotterdam may ultimately be on their way to final destinations outside of that country. Therefore the figures for the Netherlands may be inflated.

The top ten export destinations accounted for two thirds (66%) of the total value of Scotland’s goods exports. 

Figure 10. The Netherlands remained Scotland’s top destination for goods exports in the most recent year

Value of goods exports to top ten export destination countries and percentage of total exports in year ending September 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q3 2023

Table 7. The value of Scotland’s goods exports to the top ten export destination countries, £ billions, year ending (YE) September (Q3) 2019, 2022, 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q3 2023

There was a marked reduction in the value of exports to Ireland over this period, which is as a result of decreased value in the exports of gas.

When oil and gas are excluded, USA emerges as the top goods export destination, accounting for 16% (£3.9 billion) of the value of Scotland’s goods exports in the year ending September 2023 compared to the previous year. Over a quarter (26%) of Scotland’s total goods exports to USA were drinks. Almost a fifth (18%) of Scotland’s total drinks exports were to the USA. Several important products for exports to the USA increased in export value over this period, including chemical materials and products (up £75 million) and medicinal & pharmaceautical products (up £71 million). The value of Scotland’s oil exports to USA decreased by 53.3% (down £84 million) over this period. Notably all of these named products exported to the USA either decreased in volume exported (including a 7.4% decrease in volume of beverages) or remained largely the same in terms of volume, meaning there could be a large impact of price changes and inflation on the value of exported goods to the USA.

Figure 11. When oil and gas are excluded, USA was the top export destination for goods exports
Value of goods exports to top ten export destination countries and percentage of total excluding oil and gas, year ending September 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q3 2023