Pros and Cons: Should Yankees trade for Mason Miller?

We are starting our series of looks at potential Yankees trade targets with a real pie-in-the-bullpen candidate because, after all, isn’t the MLB Trade Deadline all about pursuing big dreams?

And, make no mistake, the Yankees have them, what with a World Series drought percolating since their last title in 2009. Perhaps Mason Miller, the superlative Oakland Athletics reliever, can help them realize those Fall Classic fantasies.

Would he be costly? Oh, yes. And though SNY’s Andy Martino has said it remains hard to see Brian Cashman paying an astronomical price for a reliever, there’s enormous pressure on the Yanks to make impactful moves this season. Enormous.

They don’t know if they’ll have Juan Soto, a pending free agent, beyond this year. Aaron Judge, right now the best player in baseball, is in his age-32 season. This might not be the year to balk at spending prospects to fill holes on this year’s model.

And, obviously, based on the recent skid in which these Yankees have looked uncomfortably like the 2023, going-nowhere version, there are holes. One is in the bullpen. (Actually, probably, more than one). But the glaring one is a hard-throwing bat-misser to complement closer Clay Holmes, the sinker-baller who thrives by inducing weak contact and ground balls.

That complement is Miller. Here’s a look at the pros and cons of the Yankees trying to make a deal with Oakland for the righty, who owns a nifty 2.02 ERA entering Thursday’s games.

The Pros

Miller, 25, is a highlight-in-waiting whenever he steps on the mound, thanks to a four-seam fastball that averages better than 100 miles per hour and has maxed at 104. Batters are “hitting” a woeful .131 against that pitch and his slider, which clocks at 87 mph, is a strong partner, limiting opponents to a .143 clip. He annihilates hitters.

He’s got 14 saves in 16 chances and has allowed only 16 hits in 35.2 innings, while striking out 62 and walking 13. He is averaging 15.6 strikeouts per nine innings and fanning 46.6 percent of the batters he faces, more than double the MLB average.

We’d have to listen to more of that infernal two-strike noise the Yankees play at the Stadium, if Miller were in pinstripes. But he would sure light up the Bronx crowd with his blazing stuff.

And help the bullpen, which needs it. After Thursday’s game in Toronto, the Yankees have a 3.47 bullpen ERA, fourth in MLB. Not bad, but their pen has been tumbling – up until June 1, the relief ERA was 2.85, second in the Majors. Overall, the Yankees’ pen has generated 1.5 WAR, according to FanGraphs, which ranks just 17th.

Imagine the combo of Miller in the eighth inning, blowing away hitters with heat and his slider, followed by Holmes’ bowling-ball sinker, which has induced grounders at a rate of 66 percent, well over the MLB average of 42.6 percent. Sounds like nightmare fuel for hitters that could last through October.

The Yanks will have to figure out some other pen roles and may need to add more arms, including a lefty. But Miller would be a flame-throwing, monster get. That would also mean he didn’t go to the Orioles, who are believed to be hunting relief help, too.

The Cons

It’s no sure thing that Miller will become available – that’s the first con. The Yankees and A’s have been successful trading partners multiple times in the past, but that doesn’t mean GM Brian Cashman can pry Miller from Oakland.

And the cost may be prohibitive, anyway. Someone this good would be pricey and Miller won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026 and won’t be a free agent until 2030. So make that verrrry pricey, considering all that club control. The A’s, rightfully so, would look to add big talent in return.

Would the Yankees part with a huge prospect haul? Is a reliever, any reliever, worth multiple top-end farm pieces? Dunno for sure, but you might want to ask the 2016 Cubs. Bet they’d say yes.

Still, relievers are volatile as a group, which is why contenders spend so much of their time around the deadline trying to get them. Every team with playoff hopes needs relief pieces, whether it’s because their own corps has been beset by performance fluctuation or injury. So investing heavy prospect capital in a reliever, even one as enticing as Miller, is a risk.

Miller was diagnosed with a UCL sprain last May and did not return to the Majors until September, though he did not require surgery. The A’s controlled his workload when he returned and he made six big-league appearances, though the results were not nearly as spectacular as they have been this season.

One last con: The Yankees may have their big bullpen arm in house already, depending on how they view Luis Gil’s workload going forward. Gil has already thrown 85.2 innings this season and his career-high is 108.2 in 2021. He only threw four innings all of last season. Could the Yanks move him to a relief role and use his high-octane stuff to set up for Holmes? They might not need Miller then.

The Verdict

The Yankees dipped deep into their farm system to acquire Soto, but prospects exist to help the big-league club, whether that’s in pinstripes or as trade fodder. If Miller is gettable, they should pursue him.

Here’s a compromise: Evaluate Gil as a reliever first. His last four starts (8.82 ERA) haven’t been anything like the first 12, when he had a 1.82 ERA and gave up only 30 hits in 69.2 innings. If the Yanks are going to limit his innings, maybe his four-seamer, hard changeup and slider troika plays up in the pen.

If Gil-to-the-pen is not in their plans, so be it. Go for Miller.

Not every prospect is going to be a star – just cruise through prospect lists from a few years ago and you’ll see – and big-time talent is worth the risk. This is a big season in the Bronx. Not the time to balk at prices for what could be a piece that not only gets them to October, but helps them get through it, too.