Glenn Campbell: Labour is back in Scotland – this is big

Labour is back in Scotland.

For the first time since 2010 they have won a national election north of the border, crushing the SNP and bringing to a juddering halt the nationalists’ long-running winning streak.

This is big.

The SNP successfully persuaded independence supporters to back them in all three Westminster elections in the decade since the 2014 referendum.

That was an almost unbeatable coalition of support. If anything like 45% of voters side with one party and the others have to share 55% between them – the party of 45% wins.

This time that link appears to have broken.

To many in Scotland, Labour presented itself as a better route to political change. Their new MPs from Scotland have helped secure a landslide victory across the UK and oust a Conservative government.

That said, it so happens Labour would have beaten the Tories without winning any seats in Scotland – a scenario the SNP advanced in the campaign without any obvious electoral benefit to themselves.

There may have been other reasons for voters to turn away from the nationalists.

Frustrations with their domestic record in government at Holyrood. The shadow of an ongoing police investigation into the party’s finances. Three first ministers in just over a year.

Internal arguments over gender reform and the now-defunct power-sharing deal with the Greens may also have had an effect.

Their defeat will have consequences. At Westminster, the SNP will lose status, privilege and public finance now that it is no longer the third placed party.

Gone too is the guaranteed spot at questions to the prime minister every Wednesday. That right switches to the Liberal Democrats.

The SNP had hoped this election would increase democratic pressure for another referendum. That particular political football appears to be burst – at least for now.

Opinion polls suggest around half the Scottish electorate still favour independence even if it was not their priority at this election.

An incoming Labour government has work to do to persuade these voters that Scotland’s best long-term future is as part of the UK.

Similarly, the SNP needs a new strategy if it is to revive the case for independence.

In normal circumstances, there would be serious questions over the future of any party leader who presided over such a spectacular defeat.

But as John Swinney took over the leadership from Humza Yousaf just weeks before the election was called, I suspect he can avoid much of the blame and will be allowed by his party to pick up the pieces and try to rebuild before the Holyrood election in 2026.

He certainly has vast political experience, including enduring three election setbacks when he was last leader of the SNP in the early noughties. We’ll see.

If Labour’s dramatic comeback at the expense of the SNP is the main Scottish headline from election 2024, it is also what makes the story here different from England.

The main struggle has been between Labour and the SNP, not between Labour and the Conservatives.

In truth, it has been a bad result, for both parties of power in Scotland.

After 17 years in government at Holyrood, the SNP appears to be in serious trouble.

The Conservatives, running the UK government for the last 14 years, have also suffered a setback – sliding from second to joint third-placed Scottish party at Westminster.

It could be worse for them if the Liberal Democrats beat the SNP in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire. That result’s been delayed until Saturday.

The Tories have only actually lost one Scottish seat – down from six to five MPs. It is those massive Labour gains from the SNP that have done most to displace their overall standing.

In the past, the Scottish Conservatives have successfully corralled unionist voters to beat the SNP in some parts of Scotland.

That may still have had some potency this time but my overall sense is that the public did not see this as an independence election. It was not a defining issue.

Boris Johnson’s dishonesty over Partygate during Covid and the economic failure of the mini-budget during the brief administration of Liz Truss may have turned some voters against the Tories.

Campaign mis-steps from Rishi Sunak, such as cutting short his participation in D-day commemorations, may have stunted the potential for growth the Scottish Tories felt was possible six weeks ago.

Having failed to get re-elected to Westminster, their Scottish leader Douglas Ross can fall back on his job as a list MSP at Holyrood.

However, his credibility as a devolved politician has taken a knock given that he made clear he would be quite happy to abandon his post representing the Highlands and Islands in the Scottish Parliament had he won a seat at Westminster.

We already know he’s quitting his leadership position, pre-announced during the campaign following an internal row about his decision to be a Westminster candidate.

The Conservatives are now seeking new leadership at both Scottish and UK level and given the extent to which the right leaning Reform UK ate into their vote, there’s likely to be a significant argument within the party over where on the political spectrum they should position themselves.

They can have that argument in opposition, while Labour takes over the business of governing the UK.

For Scotland, Labour has talked about a new partnership with the government at Holyrood – which may be easier to promise than deliver.

There’s also the pledge to establish a new publicly owned energy company, headquartered in Scotland.

Across the UK, they face the enormous challenge of fixing the public finances after Covid costs, a huge spike in inflation and a significant increase in borrowing costs.

That’s an inheritance that could shorten the length of any honeymoon period for an incoming government that has promised not to raise key taxes. Tough decisions lie ahead.

This election may feel a little like Labour’s landslide under Tony Blair in 1997 but their victory this time comes without the optimistic promise that “things can only get better”.