NFL offseason power rankings: No. 3 San Francisco 49ers still looking to get their Super Bowl

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Kyle Shanahan was defensive, and for good reason.

You don’t hear about bad coaches or teams being unable to win big games. That label is always stuck on the ones who are good enough in the regular season to be championship contenders and often make playoff runs, just without a title at the end.

Shanahan was good enough to be offensive coordinator of an Atlanta Falcons team that was up 28-3 in a Super Bowl, he and the San Francisco 49ers led by 10 in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV five seasons ago and they led the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime of the Super Bowl last postseason. Shanahan and the 49ers are obviously good enough to win it all. They just haven’t.

Yet the questions were coming. Shanahan has been to three Super Bowls as a coach or coordinator and is 0-3, losing a lead each time. Suddenly Shanahan’s decision to take the ball first in overtime of the Super Bowl this past February became another easy punchline, though it wasn’t an obvious mistake and maybe not a mistake at all.

Logic has little place in most sports debates, but Shanahan tried.

“When you say ‘big games,’ we had to win a bunch of big games to get to Super Bowls,” Shanahan said. “We’ve won a lot of big games here. We won a lot of big games to get in the playoffs. The fact we keep getting there shows you guys how much we’ve won big games.

“I hope I can be part of a team that wins the game at the end of the year. But to say the Niners can’t win a big game would be an extremely inaccurate statement.”

The question is if the 49ers will get that opportunity again this season. On paper, there’s no reason they can’t.

The 49ers have a fantastic offense. Christian McCaffrey won NFL Offensive Player of the Year last season as he climbs up the list of all-time running backs. Brock Purdy will always have stubborn critics, but he was the most efficient quarterback in the NFL last season. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are elite pass-catchers, and Trent Williams is one of the best offensive linemen ever. And the defense is loaded as well with big-time players like Nick Bosa.

And nothing is promised. Last season the 49ers had a great shot to win their first Super Bowl since the end of the 1994 season. They were fantastic in the regular season and got the No. 1 seed. They picked up two comeback wins over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the playoffs to make the Super Bowl. They led the Chiefs 10-0 early in that Super Bowl, had a 19-16 lead in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter and a 22-19 lead in overtime. Patrick Mahomes got them at the end. It happens.

The 49ers bring back most of the roster and that probably includes Aiyuk, who made a trade request because he’s unhappy with his contract. The assumption is that Aiyuk will play out the final year of his deal because he has little leverage, but that and trade speculation regarding Samuel this offseason is a reminder that even the best roster has an expiration date.

The fact that the 49ers could practically run it back with the same roster after a Super Bowl appearance is rare. They were able to do that because Purdy’s contract is still one of Mr. Irrelevant. His cap hit this season is a little more than $1 million. That will change soon, assuming the 49ers extend him. For now, it keeps the 49ers’ window wide open.

It will close at some point, and probably soon. It does for most teams that don’t have Mahomes. The 49ers and Shanahan just have to make sure that if they have another opportunity to win it all, it doesn’t pass them by again.

Offseason grade

The 49ers knew this wouldn’t be a flashy offseason. The key pieces of the roster were mostly under contract for this season. The biggest news, other than Brandon Aiyuk’s unhappiness, was probably the team cutting defensive end Arik Armstead. Armstead was a great leader and got a three-year, $43.5 million deal from the Jaguars. The big addition was pass rusher Leonard Floyd on a two-year, $20 million deal. He can replace Chase Young, a midseason addition last season who left for the Saints in free agency. The 49ers are always looking to add to the defensive line and they also signed Yetur Gross-Matos and Jordan Elliott. The draft brought aboard receiver Ricky Pearsall in the first round, a pick that was questioned but is solid insurance if the 49ers have to move on from Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel next offseason. There was some movement for the 49ers but it was mostly quiet, as expected.

Grade: C

Quarterback report

The truth is, there’s no real point to the circular Brock Purdy debate. Whether he’s a good player who slipped to the end of the seventh round or just lucky to be along for the 49ers’ ride, it doesn’t really matter. He is hyper efficient in the environment he’s in, and that’s all that counts. Almost every quarterback, even some all-time greats, were helped out greatly by being in an ideal situation. Being a “system quarterback” is not the insult some think it is.

What does matter is Purdy’s upcoming contract. Based solely on results, Purdy deserves to be paid like every other elite quarterback. His 113 passer rating last season led the NFL by a mile and was the 14th best mark in NFL history. The 49ers have to figure out if Kyle Shanahan could just develop another quarterback at a bargain price, or if Purdy will be worth at least $50 million per season. The most likely outcome is the 49ers will pay up, because most teams do at quarterback, but it will become a regular part of what is likely to be another round of debates this season over Purdy’s true talent level.

BetMGM odds breakdown

The 49ers started the offseason as Super Bowl favorites at BetMGM, but that flipped to the Chiefs after the draft. It’s still close; the Chiefs are +550 to win it all, the 49ers are +600 and no other team is shorter than +1000. The 49ers’ win total of 11.5 is tied for the highest in the NFL. The 49ers are -200 to win the NFC West, the second-shortest odds of any division favorite (the Chiefs are -250 to win the AFC West). The 49ers show up in the awards odds too: Brock Purdy is tied for eighth in MVP odds (+1600), Nick Bosa is fourth in Defensive Player of the Year odds (+850) and Christian McCaffrey is the co-favorite with Tyreek Hill for Offensive Player of the Year (+750). There’s still a lot of faith in the 49ers in the betting community.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “George Kittle might be the most exciting tight end in the league; nobody at the position makes more splash plays than him. He’s scored a whopping 11 touchdowns outside the red zone in the last three seasons, six more than any other tight end. But those types of plays aren’t always repeatable year-over-year, and Kittle has to make his fantasy juice with very modest opportunity — he has seen 94 targets or fewer in four straight seasons.

“Often you have to separate fantasy value from real-life value, and this is one of those instances. Kittle’s game features an infectious joie de vivre and he’s probably building a Hall of Fame resume, but stepping into his age-31 season, I don’t think I’ll draft Kittle proactively.”

Stat to remember

Christian McCaffrey has become the type of workhorse running back we used to see 30 or more years ago. He logged 85% of the offensive snaps in nine of the 16 games he appeared in, getting 100% three times. Of the seven times he was under 85%, six were double-digit wins and he could take a rest. McCaffrey had injury issues in 2020 and 2021 that limited him to 10 games, but otherwise he has been an ironman even though he’s just 205 pounds.

And McCaffrey has been incredible for the 49ers since they traded for him. Last season he led the NFL in yards from scrimmage (2,023), rushing yards (1,459) and total touchdowns (21). He had another 420 yards and five touchdowns in the playoffs. He was the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year and is looking like a very good bet to make the Hall of Fame. McCaffrey is 28 years old and at some point the workload will catch up to him, but it seems like the 49ers will use him the same way this season. There’s a reason he’s the first overall pick in almost all Yahoo fantasy football drafts. He and quarterback Brock Purdy are probably the two players who the 49ers couldn’t afford to lose this season if they want to win the Super Bowl.

Burning question

Can the 49ers keep everyone happy this season?

The only problem with having a bunch of stars is you can’t pay them all. Brandon Aiyuk wants a new deal after a great 1,342-yard season, but he didn’t get it and requested a trade. There has been no indication the 49ers will pay him or trade him. He wasn’t practicing at the beginning of training camp. Trent Williams has been a first-team All-Pro each of the last three seasons for the 49ers, and he wants a new contract. He is holding out at the beginning of camp. It’s arguable that on a team of stars, Williams is the 49ers’ best player. And those are just the contract disputes we know about.

Presumably both players will play for the 49ers this season and do so at an elite level. But it’s worth keeping an eye on. San Francisco didn’t want to start camp with two of its stars unhappy as it chases a Super Bowl. Now it hopes that doesn’t create any chemistry issues for a very important season.

Best case scenario

In the first half of the first game last season, the 49ers took a 20-0 lead on the Steelers and made Pittsburgh — which would end up making the playoffs — look like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Starting with that game the 49ers spent most of the season as the consensus pick as the best team in football. (The Ravens’ win over the 49ers on Christmas changed that notion for the regular season, and we all saw the Chiefs win the Super Bowl.) Then the 49ers practically brought everyone back. This was a dominant team, and they can have a 15-2 type of season. If that happens, Brock Purdy is probably winning an MVP and his critics will lose their minds looking for new ways to discredit him. It’s easy to make jokes about Kyle Shanahan’s playoff failures, but he’s a great coach and there’s no reason this won’t be the season he and the 49ers win it all.

Nightmare scenario

Now that Brock Purdy has shown he’s no fluke, the floor on the 49ers is extremely high. Sure, the contract drama from the offseason isn’t ideal but it’s probably going to be a story for the summer and be forgotten by fall. The 49ers are so good that it’s hard to imagine them not winning the NFC West unless they have an incredibly unlucky season with injuries. That doesn’t mean the 49ers are going to win the Super Bowl, and at this point that’s all that matters. San Francisco played three playoff games last season: It trailed the Packers with two minutes to go, it trailed the Lions 24-7 in the second half and it lost to the Chiefs. We also saw the 49ers get worked over by the Ravens and Bengals at home in the regular season. The 49ers are good but not unbeatable. And the realities of the salary cap mean that the 49ers might not be able to keep their core together for much longer, especially with Purdy likely to get paid soon. It’s unfair to say a team’s season will be a failure if it doesn’t win a Super Bowl, but that’s the honest evaluation of the 2024 49ers.

The crystal ball says …

The 49ers are the rare team with no real weakness. It’s hard to not pick them to win the NFC. But the 49ers aren’t the highest-ranked NFC team in the offseason power rankings, so obviously I favor another team to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. It’s nothing against them, though the contract drama with Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams was a little concerning. The 49ers will be great again and like last season, whether they win a Super Bowl will be determined by a few bounces here or there. The 49ers have had two crushing Super Bowl losses to the Chiefs in the past five seasons, along with an NFC championship game loss at the Eagles in which they ran out of quarterbacks, They’ve had a lot of close calls. Another one this season and we’ll start to wonder if this group of 49ers will ever make it to the finish line and win a championship.