3 things to know about the ACC: Can anyone crash the Florida State and Clemson party?

Winning your conference is very important in the era of the expanded College Football Playoff.

The top four conference champions will receive byes to the second round of the 12-team postseason. With just four power conferences remaining following the demise of the Pac-12, a conference title is essentially a guaranteed off week.

With the 2024 season quickly approaching, here’s a look at the ACC. Will someone other than Florida State or Clemson make a run at the title?

—per BetMGM

A clear top three?

Is the ACC going to be won by either Clemson or Florida State again in 2024? Since Virginia Tech won the conference in 2010, Pittsburgh (2021) is the only team outside of Clemson and FSU to win an ACC title. Over the past 13 seasons, Clemson has won eight titles while the Seminoles won their fourth a season ago.

FSU’s title last season came as the ACC moved away from its divisional format. The Seminoles didn’t play the Tigers in the title game though. Clemson was just 4-4 in conference play and Louisville finished second to FSU.

The Seminoles are the favorites to repeat after adding DJ Uiagalelei to replace Jordan Travis at quarterback. The former Clemson and Oregon State QB is in his final season of college football and will have plenty to work with at FSU even though players like Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Trey Benson need to be replaced.

Florida State’s defense should be very strong again after allowing less than 20 points per game and tallying 46 sacks in 2023. The unit added defensive end Marvin Jones Jr. from Georgia and LB Shawn Murphy and DB Earl Little are two of five transfers overall from Alabama.

Clemson, meanwhile, stayed quiet in the transfer portal as usual. Dabo Swinney has been averse to adding transfers and is counting on improved offensive play in offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s second season.

The Tigers scored fewer points and averaged fewer yards per play in 2023 than they did in 2022 as the offensive scheme change wasn’t a smooth transition. Cade Klubnik struggled and threw for fewer than 3,000 yards. He’s looking for a rebound year and will need some help from his receivers. No Tiger receiver has broken the 1,000-yard mark since Amari Rodgers in 2020 and the biggest total in that span is Antonio Williams’ 604 yards in 2022. He played in just five games in 2023.

Miami hopes to crash the two-team party with a bunch of incoming transfers after a disappointing 2023. The Hurricanes added former Washington State QB Cam Ward and ex-Oregon State RB Damien Martinez through the transfer portal. The hope is the Hurricanes will have a top-tier offense coupling them with wide receivers Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George.

The defense added former Washington DB Mishael Powell and ex-Tennessee DL Tyler Baron. Powell will be tasked with replacing Kam Kinchens in the Miami secondary. Baron bolsters a defensive line that returns Rueben Bain (7.5 sacks). He tied for the team lead in sacks with LB Francisco Mauigoa a season ago. Mauigoa is back to lead the linebackers after he also had 10.5 tackles for loss.

The teams who also harbor title hopes

NC State added former Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall over the offseason. McCall was phenomenal in Jamey Caldwell’s offense with the Chanticleers, but took a step back in 2023 before he suffered a concussion and missed multiple games. Having Kevin Concepcion to throw to is a big plus. Concepcion was the team’s second-leading rusher and its leading receiver as a freshman in 2023.

The Wolfpack need to replace Payton Wilson and Jaylon Scott on defense, but linebackers Sean Brown and Caden Fordham are both back.

Virginia Tech returns its entire starting offense from 2023 after taking a huge step forward. The Hokies averaged just 19.3 points per game and 4.7 yards a play in 2022. Last season, Virginia Tech improved to 29.5 points a game and 6 yards a play. QB Kyron Drones threw just three interceptions and rushed for over 800 yards while throwing for over 2,000.

The Hokies also have a manageable schedule. They avoid both SMU and NC State and get Clemson at home in November. Their toughest game looks to be a trip to Miami in late September.

SMU is a sleeper to win the ACC in its first season if it can rebuild the offensive line. QB Preston Stone, RB Jaylan Knighton, WR Jake Bailey and TE RJ Maryland are all back, but the line needs to replace both tackles and three starters overall.

After making the ACC title game a season ago, Louisville has former Oregon and Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough at quarterback to replace Jack Plummer. That could be an upgrade, but Shough has never played in more than seven games in a single season. Can he stay healthy for his seventh season of college football?

How will Cal and Stanford acclimate to their new cross-country reality?

As the Big Ten and Big 12 added teams from the remains of the Pac-12, Cal and Stanford were forced into a marriage of convenience with the ACC. The Bears travel to Florida State, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest in 2024, while Stanford heads to Syracuse, Clemson and NC State. Trips to Seattle and Boulder are going to feel like 15-minute bus rides by comparison.

Like the odds above suggest, Cal is in a much better position for a solid season than the Cardinal are. The Bears travel to Auburn as part of their non-conference schedule but should contend for a bowl berth for a second straight season. The Bears bring back RB Jaydn Ott (1,315 rushing yards in 2023) and added former North Texas QB Chandler Rogers in the transfer portal. Rogers threw for over 3,300 yards in 2023.

The defense is loaded with upperclassmen, including Xavier Carlton and David Reese. They combined for 11 of the Bears’ 24 sacks last season.

Stanford is still in the early stages of a rebuild in Troy Taylor’s second season. And it doesn’t help that the Cardinal are facing a very tough schedule. Stanford continues its annual rivalry with Notre Dame and also has Virginia Tech, SMU and Louisville on tap.

WR Elic Ayomanor is back after his breakout game against Colorado in 2023. He had 62 catches for 1,013 yards a season ago. The entire offensive line is back as well as Stanford aims to run the ball a lot better than it has recently. It seems hard to believe, but Stanford hasn’t averaged over four yards a carry since 2017.