WNBA 2nd-half storylines: Caitlin Clark, A’ja Wilson, legit contenders and the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes

The Las Vegas Aces are fifth in the standings and looking up at hosting playoff games (and at a civil rights lawsuit). The Minnesota Lynx lifted the Commissioner’s Cup, but slogged through July afterward. And Allisha Gray pocketed two-thirds of her base salary in one night by sweeping the All-Star Game competitions.

The 2024 WNBA season hasn’t gone as expected to this point, and there’s surely more in store when the league resumes Thursday. Each team will play around 15 games each before the playoffs begin Sept. 22.

The top of the standings don’t feature the Aces, the two-time defending champions who return four starters from the Olympic gold medal team. Caitlin Clark’s Indiana Fever and Angel Reese’s Chicago Sky are battling for the final playoff spots and Rookie of the Year honors. And the Phoenix Mercury are hoping to cap Diana Taurasi’s illustrious career by bottling up the magic from the 2021 Olympic cycle that led to a Finals appearance.

Here’s what to watch for in the last month of the season.

Aces as favorites? Not anymore

The back-to-back champion Las Vegas Aces (16-8, 4.5 games back) fell from overwhelming favorites to possible postseason road warriors looking up at the four teams that would host playoff games. The league’s playoff format is best-of-three first-round, followed by best-of-five semifinals and final. Playing the first two games of a series at home is a massive advantage, and Las Vegas used it to its advantage the last two seasons.

The Aces’ winning recipe was thrown off while veteran three-time WNBA champion point guard Chelsea Gray missed 12 games this season rehabbing a foot injury. The team struggled defensively and went 6-6, including its first three-game losing skid since 2019.

Upon Gray’s return, the defense improved by 10 points per 100 possessions, and the offense opened up for more success from 3. The Aces climbed back into hosting contention with a 10-2 stretch, but face the third-most difficult remaining schedule (.528 winning percentage) in the league. It also means there’s ample opportunity to overtake Seattle (17-8), awaiting in the penultimate regular-season game, and Minnesota (17-8), which it plays back-to-back later this month. Las Vegas still has two games each against New York (0-1 this season) and Connecticut (1-0).

In the Aces’ stead as favorites are the Liberty (21-4), the team they defeated in the 2023 Finals and the only one to take a playoff game from them (it was, expectedly, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn). Breanna Stewart (19.3 ppg, 9 rpg, 4 apg) and Sabrina Ionescu (19.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 6 apg) provided consistency while the team continued to build chemistry despite Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (knee) and Courtney Vandersloot (personal) missing games.

The Liberty face one of the easier schedules in the last 15 games (.442 opponent winning percentage ranks 11th-most difficult) with all four contests against the struggling Dallas Wings still remaining. — Cassandra Negley

Caitlin Clark leading Fever out of decade-long disappointment

The vibes in Indianapolis are immaculate, and Caitlin Clark’s rookie season is already historic. Clark, the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year, is the fourth player in league history to average at least 15 points, five rebounds and five assists per game. She’s averaging a league-best 8.19 assists, good for fifth all time and making her the third player to average at least eight per game.

Clark has lived up to expectations over the first 26 games of her professional career and could be even better over the last 14 of the regular season. During All-Star weekend, she said she was looking forward to not touching a basketball for a week during the Olympic break. It’s her first significant stretch of time off since before her senior year at Iowa.

The Caitlin Clark Effect has also carried over maybe more than anticipated. The team is averaging a franchise-best 16,898 fans per game, 5,000 more than its previous high in 2000 and on pace to set the league record. Washington averaged 16,202 in 2002, according to Across the Timeline.

The Fever (11-15, seventh) are solidly in the playoff picture and on pace for their best season since Tamika Catchings’ final campaign in 2016. Indiana is two wins away from tying its 2023 mark (13-27) and six from tying that 2016 total (17-17). Clark has the Fever on the upswing exactly as intended when they drafted her in April. — Negley

In an unexpected twist it is Connecticut, which had only one Olympian, with the most pressing personnel questions out of the break. In a rare midseason trade, the Sun added veteran guard Marina Mabrey from the Chicago Sky to bolster their 10th-ranked 3-point shooting (31.4%).

The struggles proved problematic in all three of their losses to New York, which leads the league in made 3s per game. And though the Sun are in second place, they’ve yet to defeat New York, fourth-place Seattle (0-1) or Las Vegas (0-1). The only two wins against a top-five team are against Minnesota by a combined six points, including a one-point overtime win in May.

Mabrey gives the Sun (18-6) more perimeter offense alongside DeWanna Bonner, which will also give Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones more space to work inside. Mabrey fell into a career-worst slump for the Sky earlier this year, but is a career 35.8% shooter and played her best games of the season against New York. In four games, she shot 13-of-25. That’s the late-season X-Factor that could lift the Sun to their first WNBA championship. — Negley

What does the Marina Mabrey trade mean for the Sky?

Mabrey’s trade to the Sun could improve Connecticut’s playoff chances, but its impact on the Sky is a bit more subtle.

Mabrey came to Chicago in 2023 after three years in Dallas, and the Sky paid a big price to acquire the guard. Former coach and GM James Wade gave up two first-round picks, a second and a third, and the rights to current Liberty player Leonnie Fiebich for Mabrey. Many people didn’t see Wade’s vision, and whatever it was, it never came to fruition as he left months later for an NBA assistant job. Teresa Weatherspoon was left to pick up the pieces and move the Sky forward. The Mabrey trade to Connecticut is just another of those steps.

Despite Mabrey being Chicago’s second-leading scorer this season, Chennedy Carter, Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso have emerged as the future of the franchise. Carter has found her fit with Weatherspoon and is capitalizing. Meanwhile, first-round picks Reese and Cardoso have immense potential as individual players and also as a formidable post duo. With Carter, who is one of the best shot-creators in the league, you have a Big 3 to build around. Mabrey doesn’t necessarily fit into the team as a role player, so sending her to Connecticut makes sense.

The Sky are currently fighting for a playoff spot and likely won’t make too much noise in the playoffs. But the second half of the season will really allow Carter, Reese and Cardoso to step into the spotlight, giving fans a glimpse of what’s to come. — Eden Laase

Who can win the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes?

The bottom of the standings is the race for Paige Bueckers, the 2021 national player of the year at UConn, but don’t expect any tanking. Unlike the NBA, the WNBA Draft lottery takes the cumulative records for the last two years into account for lottery odds.

Los Angeles is on pace for the best odds after finishing 17-23 in 2023 and sitting at 6-18 currently (23-41 cumulative). The franchise began a full rebuild this year in Curt Miller’s second season at the helm before an ACL injury to No. 2 overall pick Cameron Brink negatively impacted its progress. Of the four teams at the bottom, the Sparks have one of the tougher schedules. The Sparks still have to face New York twice, Connecticut three times and Seattle twice.

Washington (19-21 last year, 25-38 cumulative) could also be up there in the lottery odds. It’s also rebuilding and could pair Bueckers with 2024 No. 6 pick Aaliyah Edwards, her former UConn teammate.

Dallas (28-37 cumulative) and Atlanta (26-38) are also in the mix, and Chicago (28-36) could fall if the Sky struggle over the last month. The Wings have the right to swap first-round picks with the Sky from the Mabrey trade.

The draft class includes LSU forward Aneesah Morrow, USC and former Stanford forward Kiki Iriafen and Kentucky guard Georgia Amoore, formerly of Virginia Tech. Guards Olivia Miles (Notre Dame) and Azzi Fudd (UConn), who have both dealt with knee injuries, could also come out. Players no longer have an extra year of eligibility under the COVID-19 guidelines that expired this past spring. There will also be a roster added in December, when the Golden State Valkyries select players via an expansion draft. — Negley

Are the Lynx and Storm legit?

The Liberty and Aces have emerged as the two favorites to contend for a title, and the Sun aren’t far behind. But where do the Lynx and Storm fall in the “championship contenders” conversation? Both have the personnel to make a deep playoff run, and I could see one of them even making the finals, depending on matchups. But while the other three have wiggle room, things would have to go perfectly for the Lynx and Storm in order for one of them to win a title.

For the Lynx, Napheesa Collier is having an MVP-caliber season, averaging 20 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.2 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Kayla McBride is having the best shooting season of her career, and Alanna Smith has emerged as a great third-scoring option. As a unit, the Lynx are a tough, cohesive team, but they may not have enough talent to compete with the Aces or Liberty. After Collier, it’s hard to see the rest of the Lynx winning one-on-one battles.

The Storm have heaps of talent individually, but are still trying to put it all together. Their Big 3 of Skylar Diggins-Smith, Nneka Ogwumike and Jewell Loyd are three of the best players in the league at their respective positions, but they aren’t clicking as a trio yet. Meanwhile, Ezi Magbegor is coming off a fantastic Olympic performance for Australia, and Jordan Hotston is coming into her own as the team’s fifth starter. If this team figures out how to mesh as a unit, it could make for an interesting playoff contender. As it stands, the Storm are 3-6 this season against the Aces, Liberty and Lynx. — Laase

The Wings have endured injuries or illnesses to just about every player on the roster this season, but no one’s absence has been as impactful as Satou Sabally’s. She had a breakout last season, averaging 18.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.8 steals per game to lead the Wings to a semifinal appearance. Sabally missed the first half of the 2024 season with a shoulder injury she sustained playing for the German national team in February, but she is expected back Friday against the Sun.

Sabally is a talented, versatile player who impressed during the Olympics despite not being 100% healthy. She changes things for the Wings by adding depth offensively and defensively. Her scoring abilities also take some pressure off Arike Ogunbowale, who has had to do everything for Dallas in Sabally’s absence. There’s no doubt the Wings are a different team with Sabally, but at this point in the season, her return may be too late. The Wings are last in the WNBA with a 6-19 record, so no matter who they put on the court, a playoff spot seems nearly impossible. Still, Sabally is a can’t-miss talent, so having her back on the court is great for the league, even if it might not help Dallas much this season. — Laase

A’ja Wilson looks to claim MVP

Unless something crazy happens, the MVP race is all wrapped up. Breanna Stewart, Napheesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas all had cases, but A’ja Wilson is running away with the award. The only mark against her early in the season was that her team was struggling, but now the Aces are back on track. And even during their down stretch, Wilson was still putting up major numbers.

She’s already a two-time MVP in 2020 and 2022, so improving on previous success is a challenge. But Wilson is exceeding expectations. She set a record in June for most consecutive games with 25 points (8), and her stats continue to put her at the top of the league in multiple categories. She’s first in points per game (27.2), rebounds (12) and blocks (2.9). Wilson is also adding new elements to her game. This season she’s excelling at scoring off the drive and taking defenders off the dribble, even from past the 3-point line. She’s also added long-range shooting to her game, making 39.5% of her 3-point attempts. In summation: No one can guard Wilson, and no one wants to be guarded by her.

As for the other awards, Rookie of the Year is Caitlin Clark’s to lose, but double-double queen Angel Reese can still make a play for it. Cheryl Reeve looks like the Coach of the Year after taking the Lynx from a losing record to third in the standings with championship aspirations. The race for Most Improved Player may end up being the most interesting with players like the Wings’ Maddy Siegrist coming back from injury, the Sparks’ Dearica Hamby putting up some of the best numbers in the league, and the Sun’s DiJonai Carrington making headlines for her pesky defense. — Laase