Leon Draisaitl’s Contract Extension Will Be A Massive Discount

While nobody knew it at the time, Leon Draisaitl did the Edmonton Oilers a huge favour when he signed his eight year, $68 million contract extension in August of 2017. Although it was deemed an overpay by many at the time, his 50-goal, 100-point breakout in 2018-19 turned it into one of the best value deals in the league. After years of outperforming his cap hit, it’s time for Draisaitl to cash in. What might that look like?

Evolving Hockey projects his next contract at $13.5 million over eight years, while The Athletic’s model pegs him at being worth $12.5 annually over that period of time. Recent reporting from TSN’s Ryan Rishaug predicts that the AAV will be north of $14 million.

The current AAV record belongs to Auston Matthews, at $13.25 million, on a four year contract that begins this season. That works out to about 15% of the $88 million salary cap for this season. That number would likely be lower if stretched out over a full eight year deal.

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The previous record was Nathan MacKinnon‘s $12.6 million, which kicked in last season, and was worth about 15% of that year’s salary cap. Connor McDavid‘s $12.5 million AAV took up 15.7% of the cap when it kicked in.

If we follow that math and simply give Draisaitl 15% of the projected $92 million cap for next season, we arrive at a $13.8 million AAV. Spread out over eight years, that would add up to a $110 million dollar deal.

But of course it’s not quite that simple. Draisaitl isn’t the number one star on his own team, and his running mate McDavid is due for an extension in a year’s time. That deal will almost certainly be more expensive than Draisaitl’s, and certainly break whatever AAV record is in place by then. So let’s instead look at some past players and teams in similar situations.

Draisaitl’s closest comparable of the cap era is Evgeni Malkin. Both are big, European centres who play in the shadows of the best player of their generation who was drafted the season after them, and both players have won a Hart Trophy and at least one Art Ross. Though he’s one year older than Sidney Crosby, Malkin debuted a year later, and so his contract extension came a year later.

Crosby signed for twelve years and an $8.7 million AAV, before the new CBA capped contracts at eight years. Even so, his AAV stayed the same, and it’s likely Sid took less so the Penguins could go Cup-chasing. The next year, with the new CBA in place, Malkin inked an eight year deal at $9.5 million per year. That was worth 13.8% of the cap to Crosby’s initial 13.5%.

None of those numbers approach the 15% number that’s become standard across the league. Malkin likely took after Crosby and returned to Pittsburgh on a sweetheart deal, to try and build a contender. As we all know, that out worked perfectly.

The other comparable situation is one General Manager Stan Bowman knows well: Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The year after Malkin’s deal, the two Blackhawks stars signed matching eight year contracts worth $10.5 million annually. When they kicked in, both deals were worth 14.7% of the salary cap.

The Draisaitl comp is harder here because while Kane was by far the more productive player, Toews was the #1 centre and face of the franchise, widely touted as a top-five player in the league. On top of that, both players were due for extensions at the same time. Bowman really didn’t have a choice but to sign the pair to identical contracts. Unfortunately, not only did Toews contract age poorly as he’s dealt with health issues, Chicago never won a Stanley Cup under these two contracts.

In fact, the only team to ever win a Stanley Cup with a contract worth $10 million annually is the Florida Panthers, who pay both Aleksander Barkov and Sergei Bobrovsky $10 million.

As evidenced by the two examples above, two superstars needing extensions is a good problem to have. The Penguins and Blackhawks won three Stanley Cups each thanks to their dynamic duos. If the Oilers are going to repeat that feat, they’ll need to extend both Draisaitl and McDavid.

To that end, I’d predict a Leon Draisaitl contract to come in at something like eight years and $13.5 million per year, similar to the projections. That number compensates him for the lost earnings on his last contract while still being good value for the team. On Draisaitl’s end, he takes a little bit less than he probably could get (and certainly would get on the open market) in exchange for the opportunity to chase Stanley Cups with his friend and running mate McDavid, while still setting a new AAV record.

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