Thursday Night Football Falcons vs. Buccaneers: Fantasy football breakdown

You can watch Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs. Buccaneers at 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT on Amazon Prime Video.

The NFL has shown no mercy in putting Kirk Cousins on primetime — he of the previously ugly primetime career record — this season, as the Falcons will once again take center stage. This time, 2-2 Atlanta will take on the 3-1 division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are fresh off a 33-16 drubbing of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Let’s get to the biggest fantasy football storylines for this TNF matchup.

What’s up with Bijan Robinson?

Now, that question assumes that Bijan Robinson has been an utter fantasy waste, failing to get even close to his top-six preseason ADP. That’s not accurate — Robinson has been fine, scoring double-digit fantasy points the first three weeks of the season. But, again, he had a top-six ADP. He hasn’t surpassed 15 fantasy points all season. What gives?

Sure, he’s had some tough matchups (vs. Steelers, @Philadelphia, vs. Kansas City, vs. New Orleans) against teams who rank above average against the run. What’s scary is that Robinson ceded a ton of work to backup Tyler Allgeier last week, which is the last thing fantasy football managers want to see.

Robinson has been dealing with a hamstring injury as well, so maybe that’s what’s held him back. Of course, the Falcons could continue to split work between him and Allgeier in this game in order to protect Robinson somewhat. That said, it would behoove the Falcons to lean on the run against a Buccaneers run-funnel defense, which would open up the play-action game. Speaking of which …

Is this the Drake London blow-up game we’ve been waiting for?

Drake London was everyone’s favorite breakout candidate this season. All the boxes were checked: 1) he got a new, better quarterback 2) he got a new, innovative, exciting offense and 3) to quote Matt Harmon, he is “verifiably good at the game.” It all seemed too right, too good, to not happen.

So of course, through four weeks, we’re left wondering if we were all wrong.

London was a virtual no-show in Week 1 (to be fair, the entire Falcons offense was a no-show) before bouncing back with a 6-54-1 line in Week 2. The good times kept rolling in Week 3, as London scored another touchdown. And while he didn’t score again in Week 4, he secured another six catches for the third consecutive week. Perhaps even more importantly, London attracted 12 targets in the passing game; he now has 31 targets in four games, good for 7.75 per game. He’s trending in the right direction.

As mentioned, the Falcons will need to lean on the run to set up the play-action pass game. This will aid them in targeting London off play-action in the middle of the field — he’s run 124 routes in the middle of the field, per TruMedia. Fantasy and Rams fans alike will recall how deadly this system was using Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in middle-of-the-field play-action plays. And with the Bucs expected to score their fair share of points, London will be relied upon to move the chains and create some explosive plays through the air.

With London seeing positive gains every week this season, be it in receptions, touchdowns and/or targets, expect a gain in big plays for him in this game.

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Bucky Irving > Rachaad White?

By now, everyone knows the Rachaad White problem. He’s been a great receiving weapon for the Buccaneers, but he’s been far from efficient on the ground. Meanwhile, rookie Bucky Irving has seen his usage increase every game this season. That came to a head in Week 4, as the two backs split carries right down the middle, and Irving scored his first touchdown.

The window to get a solid return in a trade for Rachaad White has probably closed, but keep an eye on his receiving work in this game. If he’s able to step up as a weapon in the pass game — especially with Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan already ruled out — perhaps that window will open again and fantasy managers can cut bait while getting something in return.

Of course, if Irving’s workload increases to the point that it invades White’s passing-game work, well … that window may be welded shut.

Pick-up-and-play: Cade Otton, TE, Buccaneers

Drop: Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons

What we have here is a tale of two tight ends moving in completely opposite directions.

On one side, we have an unheralded tight end who has collected 17 targets and 13 catches in the last two games. On the other, we have a big-name TE who was supposed to break out this season but instead reached rock-bottom in Week 4: three targets, zero catches — and zero fantasy points.

I don’t think the entire football community was wrong about Kyle Pitts as a prospect. He is a physical freak who had an excellent rookie season. But I do suspect he’s lost his way with some of the more technical aspects of football; even Kirk Cousins himself was reportedly helping Pitts with his catch point during the preseason. The entire Falcons offense has shown some signs of improvement every week, balancing moments of brilliance with others that clearly show a lack of practice reps between the team’s new quarterback, receiving weapons and the offensive system as a whole. So maybe there’s hope for Pitts (although, his coach doesn’t seem to be paying much mind to all this).

Of course, fantasy managers trying to win every week can’t afford to hope, especially not at an already bad TE position. Dropping Pitts may sting, but there are better options for this week on the waiver wire — like Otton (28% rostered).

Otton has flashed in the past, but a lack of consistency has held him back throughout his young career. But the 6-foot-5, 25-year-old TE has been getting consistent looks from Baker Mayfield and the potent Bucs passing game the past couple of weeks. As mentioned, the team is also dealing with injuries at receiver, so while the Falcons’ strong secondary will have their hands full trying to stop Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Otton might get some easy looks as a security blanket and big target. Not to mention, Otton is also third on the team in red-zone targets (3) behind Godwin and Evans this season.

If you’re done with Pitts and missed out on the likes of Tucker Kraft, Cole Kmet and Zach Ertz off the waiver wire, consider Otton on TNF.