Yankees vs. Royals 2024 ALDS Preview and Prediction

The latest World-Series-or-bust October for the Yankees begins Saturday against the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS and, for all the caterwauling and hand-wringing over recent playoff duds in The Bronx, this one might deliver the most ear-splitting fan response yet if it ends poorly.

The Yanks have not won it all since 2009. Their fan base is hungry/angry. This may be the year they all finally chill. The team is built on two towering, historic offensive stars and an ace and there are plenty of other ingredients for a deep postseason run, including the supporting cast in the lineup and solid arms. They had the AL’s best record (94-68) for the 43rd time in franchise history and are the league’s top seed.

But they were also sometimes bewildering to watch, looking unstoppable when they won and basement-dwelling bad when they lost. Which team shows up now, at the most crucial time of year, in Game 1 against the fifth-seeded Royals on Saturday?

What the Yankees have going for them

Aaron Judge. Juan Soto. Gerrit Cole. It’s a pretty nice troika to have. If their stars cook in October, look out, baseball world.

Judge had another mammoth year, leading MLB with 58 homers, 144 RBI and a 1.159 OPS (comical). He led in other categories, too, but even the Internet does not have the kind of space needed to list them all. He and Soto (41 homers, .988 OPS, incredible platform year for his free agency) are a Modern Age Ruth and Gehrig or any other duo you’d like to name.

They fronted an offense that was one of three in MLB to average five runs per game. The Yanks (5.03 runs per) were the best in the AL and they led MLB with 237 homers. They also walked 672 times, 70 more than the runner-up Dodgers. If that holds, there will be Yankees on the bases during the playoffs.

Cole is a frontline starter rounding into form after not pitching until June because of injury. He had a 3.41 ERA during the season but might be peaking now – he’s got a 2.25 ERA over his last 10 starts and has held hitters to a .182 average. He’s only thrown 95 innings so far. Does that mean he’s certified fresh for October?

Beyond Cole, Carlos Rodon is starting Game 2. He’s had some wobbles, but pitched much better in Year 2 of his contract, with a 3.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He gave up just two runs to the Royals over 13 innings this season. That was a comforting rebound from his meltdown in Kansas City to end his 2023 season. Either Luis Gil, an AL Rookie of the Year candidate, or Clarke Schmidt figure to start Game 3.

The Yankees bullpen, sixth in relief ERA, had its moments during the season. Clay Holmes is no longer the exclusive closer, but can get a bushel of ground-ball outs, and Luke Weaver will close or perhaps be used to throttle a hairy situation in an earlier inning.

What the Royals have going for them

For starters, they have probably the one player anyone in baseball would pick to start a team with, 24-year-old Bobby Witt Jr., the likely AL MVP if not for Judge. The dynamic shortstop led MLB in average (.332) and hits (211) and also had 88 extra-base hits, including 32 homers, 31 steals and a .977 OPS. He’s not afraid of “the moment,” either, driving in the winning run in both victories in the Wild Card Series.

The Royals are also a good defensive team, ranking seventh in Defensive Runs Saved, according to Sports Info Solutions. They are very good at squelching the running game, allowing only 58 steals, the fewest in MLB. The next-closest team, the Tigers, gave up 96. Freddy Fermin (45 percent caught-stealing rate) was very good, but the Yanks would have a better chance to run against slugger Salvador Perez (23 percent CS%, a tick better than league average), who started both Wild Card games.

Kansas City was 13th in runs per game (4.54) during the season and only scored three times in beating Baltimore to advance. But Witt and Perez offer longball threats and Vinnie Pasquantino has returned from injury and should boost run production. Is it enough to counter the Yanks?

The Royals could ride a bullpen that delivered 7.2 scoreless innings against the Orioles. They’ve got several relievers who could go multiple innings, which is pumpkin-spiced catnip to managers in October.

The Yankees will win if…

They hit. Sounds simple, eh? But they haven’t thrived at the plate in recent postseasons. Whatever you think of batting average as a stat, their October averages over their last six postseasons are alarming. Starting from 2017, they go like this: .209, .219, .239, .262, .188 and .173.

Judge has 13 career postseason homers, a 48-homer pace over 162 games, but he’s only batted .211. There is significant pressure on him, as the face of the franchise, to deliver now.

It’s not only him, of course. Soto could add millions to an already-huge contract-to-be by rampaging through October. Giancarlo Stanton has 11 postseason homers in 27 games as a Yankee (a 66-homer pace) and looms as a threat. Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has an .825 OPS as a Yankee and added speed and pop since a midseason trade, could be key if the big boys fizzle. So could Gleyber Torres, who batted .333 with an .859 OPS in September.

The Yanks must also squash some of the mistakes that popped up a little too frequently during the season. They’ve blundered on the bases – can’t run into dopey outs with this much firepower in the lineup – and they made 93 errors, the seventh-most in MLB. Of the six teams with more, only one made the playoffs – the Mets, who had 94.

The Royals will win if…

Their rotation comes together. They used Cole Ragans and multi-pitch beast Seth Lugo, two of the top six pitchers in baseball this year via FanGraphs’ version of WAR, in the Wild Card round, so Michael Wacha will get Game 1 of the ALDS. Wacha knows what an elite postseason feels like – he was the 2013 NLCS MVP for the Cardinals. He’s been particularly good against Judge (1-for-18, 11 strikeouts) and Torres (1-for-16).

Ragans (3.14 ERA) and Lugo (3.00 ERA) should be ready for Games 2 and 3. What if the Royals got a split in Yankee Stadium and went home with Lugo looming? Could be a path to an upset. And nothing is beyond these Royals – they went 56-106 last season, but added some veterans over the winter and improved, winning 30 more games this year. And (at least) one playoff series, too.

Prediction

Yankees in five games in the rebirth of one of the great October rivalries. (The teams met four times in the ALCS from 1976-80, with the Yanks winning three).

Yes, these current Yanks are frustrating. But they’re loaded, too. And now that their October boogeyman is gone – you know who we mean, the former trash can enthusiasts – maybe they soar. At some point in his career, Judge is going to take over a postseason series or perhaps an entire October. What if he and Soto, feeding off each other like they have all season, pull a Ruth-Gehrig, circa the 1928 World Series? Gehrig hit four home runs and batted .545. Ruth slugged three homers and hit .625. Those Yanks (duh) swept the Cardinals.

This time, a similar offensive burst could be the start of a pinstriped October. Finally.