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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 8 Fantasy Football

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4 weeks ago

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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 8 Fantasy Football

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 8 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

It’s downright impossible to analyze this game without knowing if Jayden Daniels will suit up for the Washington Commanders. It sounds like he will attempt to practice Friday and could play despite suffering a rib injury in Week 7.

While we as viewers certainly want to see a battle between the first and second overall pick, Washington should consider taking the long view at this moment. This is a club that could win a weaker NFC East even if they drop this game.

Not to mention, it’s gone a little under-discussed how well Marcus Mariota played in relief duty last week. Yes, it was against the hapless Panthers but Mariota and the Commanders dog-walked that defense all afternoon. The veteran starter’s 132.8 passer rating was the eighth-best mark of his career and he chipped in with 34 yards on the ground. It was his best game in years.

The juice comes out of this game if it’s Mariota just from a narrative standpoint but his presence under center wouldn’t cause me to bench mainstay fantasy options in Washington like Brian Robinson Jr. and Terry McLaurin.

On the other side, the Bears come off their bye week and should feel great about their offense. Chicago’s “sink or swim,” no-kid-gloves developmental approach with Caleb Williams is beginning to pay dividends.

According to Next Gen Stats, Williams’ +29.4 EPA on in-breaking routes (In, Slant, Post, Angle, Crossing routes) is the third-best mark among quarterbacks this year and his 10.8 yards per attempt is the best among rookies since 2018. He’s playing big-boy quarterback and making high-level throws over the middle. The accuracy on those throws was on full display against Jacksonville in Week 6.

Williams has full grasp of this offense and, credit to Shane Waldron, he’s cut out a lot of the fat of this offense. Only DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet ran a route on more than 50% of the dropbacks per Fantasy Points Data in Weeks 5 and 6. No other wide receiver ran a route in these two games. Running back D’Andre Swift was at 49.3% and they’re mostly using him on screens, not ill-fitting option routes. Depth tight ends Gerald Everett and Marcedes Lewis ran 18 routes combined. The three wideouts and Kmet are the only players who matter at receiver and tight end.

That still makes this a tough nut to crack for fantasy. All of these guys are good players and Swift will get designed looks. No one will consistently be funneled targets but they’ll create a high-octane passing game as a whole. I’m looking for a post-bye rookie bump for Odunze because his film has been fantastic but it’s hard to make the math work for him to get eight to 10 targets per game unless another player is minimized.

The last time we saw these two teams, we got an electric Thursday Night Football shootout. We should be in for the same but the injuries in the Buccaneers’ wide receiver room cloud the picture.

There is no “Chris Godwin” role that someone is about to step into. His absence materially changes the offense. You also saw this was true for Mike Evans as the entire field constricted when he left with a hamstring injury against the Ravens. Yet, because this is a well-designed offense with a quarterback playing at a high level, we need to try and assess the future roles of the other players.

As mentioned in the video above, my gut is that Sterling Shepard mans the slot as the most reliable of this new-look receiver room. He’d be my favorite to lead the wideouts in targets. However, the big winner may be Cade Otton who, among wide receivers and tight ends, leads the team in screen targets and is a full-time player. He could slide into the top-12 tight end rankings rest-of-season. Rachaad White as an underneath option should see a volume increase and will likely play this week without Bucky Irving.

On the Falcons side, this group is well set up to smash this Bucs defense again. Todd Bowles’ zone and blitz-heavy scheme is particularly vulnerable to a veteran quarterback who has seen it all like Kirk Cousins. We saw that earlier in the season and there is no reason to think that will change.

Drake London has gained a first down on 11% of his first downs this year, per TruMedia, and while he works zone coverage over the middle, he has been targeted on 30.4% of his routes against man. He is a do-it-all receiver who is one of the five best fantasy plays on the board this week.

Whoever wins this game will go a long way to deciding who wins the NFC South. Godwin and Evans are so critical to this team that it’s worth wondering if the Buccaneers can survive without them. If they beat the Falcons, faith will be restored — if it’s wavering in their absence.

Most important Bills storyline: Amari Cooper ran a route on just 12 dropbacks in his first game with the Bills but when he was out there, he was a priority. Josh Allen threw the ball to him on 42% of those pass plays for 5.5 yards per route run. If that is any indication of his further usage, he should be the clear-cut No. 1 on this team. The Bills will still lean into the run but at the same time, if Cooper’s going to be at a 23% target share or better, then we are talking about a WR2, at a minimum, with a high weekly ceiling.

Most important Seahawks storyline: If not now, when for Jaxon Smith-Njigba? The Seahawks’ 2023 Round 1 pick hasn’t been bad as a pro but he’s only been fine, in my opinion. Seattle will need more. If Seattle doesn’t have DK Metcalf at full strength, we should see a big bump for JSN considering how much this offense has used its receiver room.

A receiver with a sub-9.0 aDOT like Smith-Njigba needs a ton of volume to be a big-time producer in fantasy. Targets farther down the field will increase the margin for error. From charting his routes, I think he can win in the intermediate area. If we don’t see him get more of those looks with Metcalf hobbled or out, then it’s plain to see this group disagrees with that assessment.

This should be the “wheels up” moment for JSN but we just haven’t seen it yet.

Most important Colts storyline: We saw a different-looking Colts offense than what we got early season. Anthony Richardson barely registered any designed runs in Weeks 1 and 2 but it was a staple concept in Week 7.

The Colts need to do something to settle Richardson down. He’s playing too fast and it’s causing his already shaky accuracy to be non-functional. Part of what they can do to calm Richardson is to take out the RPOs to give him a mental breather and add in more designed rush attempts to make the offense more efficient. Positive down and distance plays take some of the burden off Richardson to push the ball at the rate he did early in the season. There’s no guarantee it works but this can be part of the solution.

Most important Texans storyline: The Texans’ offensive line is an issue. Houston struggled to pick up blitzes and stunts to a stunning degree in Week 7 against the Packers. No shade at Green Bay but I didn’t find their plan on defense all that advanced. I came away more concerned with what Houston is installing up front. If this protection situation doesn’t get solved, there will be persistent roadblocks to Houston reaching its ceiling as a passing unit.

Most important Eagles storyline: The Eagles are 30th in neutral pass rate over the last two weeks and it makes complete sense. With the way Saquon Barkley and the offensive line are playing, along with the limitations of the passing game, it makes sense to lean into the run.

That creates a volume squeeze in the passing game and so far, A.J. Brown isn’t leaving room for anyone else. In his three healthy games, Brown has a 56.3% share of the air yards and 31.1% of the targets. He is the top-scoring wide receiver in this range. If this continues, DeVonta Smith will be quite volatile as a WR2. He’s a great player and will have his weeks but there are levels to this and Browns is operating at a higher plane than almost any wideout in the league.

Most important Bengals storyline: The Bengals offense has scored just 38 points and averaged 173.5 net passing yards per game the last two weeks. It appeared this unit was ready to start cooking after falling just short in an overtime, high-scoring affair with the Ravens in Week 5 but the encore has been more of a whimper. This looks like another potentially point-driven game but given the inconsistency of this unit and the run-heavy nature of the Eagles, this game could contain less fantasy goodness than the name-brand players in this game might lead you to believe. You’re still starting the main guys in this offense but we haven’t seen a game where both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have popped off.

Most important Ravens storyline: The Ravens are the most dangerous offense in the league. Derrick Henry leads the NFL with 873 yards rushing, Lamar Jackson is pacing for a third MVP and both Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman are top-24 fantasy receivers. There will be volatility with those receivers but they cement the ceiling of the offense.

Mark Andrews has started to pop back up in the offense, as well. He isn’t a full-time route participation player and hasn’t handled a big volume game but he’s involved in the red zone. He may not be vintage Mark Andrews but he’s back in the circle of trust for fantasy as a TE1. It helps to be tethered to this offense.

Most important Browns storyline: The two guys to see a big volume boost in the wake of the Amari Cooper trade were Cedric Tillman and David Njoku. Tillman stepped into the X-receiver position Cooper vacated and led the team with a 36.7% air yard share on 12 targets. Tillman is likely the best bet in the room going forward. He profiles as a Courtland Sutton type of X-receiver. However, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore will continue to hold down roles; there’s just more upside of the unknown with Tillman. Njoku led the way with 14 targets and got most of the designed looks in space. With Jameis Winston now under center, Njoku could be set to go on a run similar to what we saw late last year with Joe Flacco when the Browns tight end was one of the most productive options at the position.

Most important Cardinals storyline: Is Marvin Harrison Jr.’s volatile production due to coaching, Kyler Murray playing below average or the rookie wideout playing below expectation?

Yes!

We are in an “all things are true” section of the proceedings with the fourth overall pick.

Overall, I still believe Harrison will be a great wide receiver in time and he separates well on over-the-middle routes against man coverage. We just don’t see him get those routes nearly often enough. He’s playing a role that leaves no margin for error for consistent production, and his own play, along with that of his quarterback, has erased what wiggle room was left. Harrison can continue to operate as a fantasy starter because there will be big weeks but we’re past the point of expecting consistent results.

Most important Dolphins storyline: Tua Tagovailoa is set to make his return in Week 8. This offense has crumbled in his absence, in disturbing fashion.

Does his return alone bring them back into the circle of trust?

Conceptually, Mike McDaniel and the coaching staff never changed the offense despite employing backup quarterbacks with strikingly different play styles. That’s not really a mark in favor of McDaniel as an offensive designer but it should make putting Tagovailoa back in the mix simple. Just don’t forget that this group was a bottom-half success rate unit in Week 1 and got smoked in Week 2. There might be deeper issues we need to be concerned about for Miami beyond Tua’s availability.

Most important Packers storyline: It’s time for the fantasy community to come to terms with where the Packers’ wide receiver room stands. Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed are the clear top receivers here — and the former deserves more respect.

Doubs holds a critical role for this offense. He is the best X-receiver candidate who not only clears out space for guys underneath, but he’s also developed into a target earner over the middle. Doubs had some issues with drops in his rookie season but at this point, he may have the most reliable hands on the team. He certainly brings a toughness over the middle and through contact element at the catch point that some of the guys like Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are lacking. That’s why Doubs will continue to lead this room in snaps.

Most important Jaguars storyline: Tank Bigsby had a monster game last week in ideal conditions. The Jaguars committed to the run game despite a small deficit to start the matchup. We’ve seen so far that even without Travis Etienne Jr., Bigsby can be scripted out of trailing games. That is a concern this week against a strong Packers offense. Not to mention, Green Bay’s defense has been better at defending big-play rushing attacks this year, ranking seventh in EPA per rush allowed. Bigsby is still a top-24 back so he can make your fantasy lineup but just remember, there is some volatility in this equation.

Most important Cowboys storyline: The Cowboys needed a bye week, not that they stayed out of the spotlight thanks to numerous public comments from their owner. The coaching staff certainly needed a breather to assess some changes needed across the roster. The Mike McCarthy regime hasn’t been flawless but they’ve done well off the bye of late.

Dallas needs to investigate its pass-game concepts and how its deploying CeeDee Lamb. There have just been so few easy-button, layup slants to Lamb, which were automatic last season. You also wonder if they’ll come out of the bye week getting Rico Dowdle more work as the RB1. The win over Pittsburgh wasn’t pretty due to turnovers but it felt like one of the games where the offense ran at a good pace. That game saw Dowdle featured and Lamb moved around to create openings for Jalen Tolbert.

Most important 49ers storyline: The 49ers wide receiver room is in flux with Brandin Aiyuk now on IR and Deebo Samuel coming off a stint in the hospital. We’ve seen Jauan Jennings have some massive moments this year in relief duty but even he’s dealing with a hip injury. Jennings is the most likely man to step up and start in place of Aiyuk and he’s been efficient this year. He ranks inside the top 20 among all wideouts in EPA and success rate on his targets, per TruMedia.

However, if he misses this game, it will likely fall to rookie Ricky Pearsall to play a ton of snaps.

Pearsall led the receivers in routes run in his first NFL game, which was certainly not the plan after his long absence following an August shooting. You can see what the 49ers want out of Pearsall as an option route runner from the slot and outside man-beater but he is still getting up to speed. His time may not be now but it will come soon. Given these pass-catcher injuries and a weak Dallas defense on the other side, this feels like a great game to put the ball in Jordan Mason’s hands 20-plus times.

Most important Giants storyline: In Weeks 1-6 Daniel Jones was pressured on 36% of dropbacks, per PFF, and posted a 4.1 yards per attempt. With less pressure and Andrew Thomas in the mix, a left tackle Jones trusts implicitly, he checked in with a solid 16.7% pressure-to-sack ratio. That crumbled last week when he was pressured on 47% of his dropbacks against the Eagles without Thomas. Jones maintained a similar 4.2 YPA but took a sack on 50% of his pressures. Jones can execute a functional offense but the entire house crumbles when he feels the heat and doesn’t trust what’s in front of him.

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All quarterbacks get worse under pressure but Jones is more susceptible than most. Next Gen Stats noted that the Eagles defense recorded all of their sacks with a four-man pass rush and it was the highest sack rate (21.6%) with a four-man pass rush in a game this season. I’m concerned a sinking offensive line will thwart what’s been an acceptable season from Jones — and take down all the skill-position players with it.

Most important Steelers storyline: Russell Wilson provided a tangible upgrade to the Steelers quarterback position because of his effectiveness on play-action passes.

Wilson has a certain “veteran-ness” in how he executed the play-fakes. He sells them intently and makes quick decisions — launch it or check it down — with the football when he flips back to face the defense. There is an art to that. At the same time, detractors will note that most of those effective play-action shots were just moon balls to George Pickens where the receiver did most of the work at the catch juncture. However, that is … the whole point of having George Pickens on your football team. Give him a chance to win downfield and track those deep-arcing throws that Wilson loves to unfurl.

One reason to maybe watch: Jameson Williams is set to miss the next two games with a suspension for performance-enhancing substances. Does Williams’ absence clear the deck for a Sam LaPorta workload increase? As a rookie, LaPorta ran a route on 70.8% of the dropbacks and was targeted on 26% of those patterns, per Fantasy Points Data. This season, his route participation is down to 66.2% and he’s only drawn a target on 11% of them. The only real change in the passing game is Williams emerging as a legitimate volume earner and the whole attack being more vertically inclined. Nothing about LaPorta the player has changed, it’s just about the conditions around him. At least, that’s been my read. If his involvement sticks anywhere close to that level, we can have a different conversation.

One reason to maybe watch: We continue to investigate the Drake Maye experience for New England. The Patriots rookie has completed 66% of his throws through two weeks at 7.4 yards per attempt. He’s faced pressure and stood in its face to deliver passes downfield. The game doesn’t look too big for him and any analysis that he was years away from being a functional pro looks foolish. He played well against Jacksonville despite his best man-coverage receiver, DeMario Douglas, missing chunks of the game with an illness. A healthy Douglas will only make life easier against a tough Jets pass defense. As Sal Vetri mentioned on the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, Maye could be your escape hatch if you drafted a disappointing QB1 this year.

One reason to maybe watch: Javonte Williams checked in with the second-best success rate among running backs with 10-plus carries last week and was tied with Aaron Jones for fourth in percentage of carries to go for 10-plus yards (21.4%). He’s been heating up as a runner and the Broncos run game has looked better with him as the clear lead back. Williams is also third among running backs in targets this year. He is unlikely to crack the RB1 ranks but this is a solid fantasy profile. With a matchup against the Panthers on deck, this is the week to throw him into lineups.

One reason to maybe watch: The Chiefs made a trade for DeAndre Hopkins and it sounds like he could play this week. Andy Reid mentioned Hopkins’ awareness of space as a big selling point for how he fits into the offense and alluded to the role JuJu Smith-Schuster and Rashee Rice played this year. That sounds like Hopkins will get some reps as the power slot receiver. At the same time, he is still a matchup advantage as an X-receiver because he can win jump balls outside.

Either way, Hopkins has multiple paths to get onto the field early. He’s an intelligent player who can win on quick routes and be in the right spots. That is not a skill in the bag for the other Chiefs wide receivers.

One reason to maybe watch: It sounds like the Saints will be getting some critical players back quite soon.

Getting No. 1 wide receiver Chris Olave back in the mix will be huge, especially as big-play maven Rashid Shaheed is on IR. Olave’s barely played with Spencer Rattler and his consistent separation skills will be huge in settling down the rookie quarterback.

The offensive line getting healthier might be the bigger deal. We were all excited about the deep play-action passes and motion in the early chapter of the season but everything was based on an efficient zone-run scheme. If Alvin Kamara gets rolling again, that opens up so much for the aerial attack.

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