Fantasy Football storylines to watch in Week 9: Houston, we have a problem (without Stefon Diggs)

If I’ve learned anything over the last two months, it’s that context matters.

My oldest son came home with his report card earlier this month, and I could already tell he didn’t want to show me. Sure enough, he was behind in a couple of subjects. Hey, I wasn’t the perfect kid in grade school, either. But, in talking to him, I learned that his problem wasn’t that he didn’t get the material. He was rushing through it. After sitting with him a bit, he reworked a few assignments and got his grades back up. All’s well that ends well, at least for now.

After eight weeks, you might be one of those managers not wanting to show off your roster like you did back in August. And if you’re anything like me, you’ve memorized every unlucky incident or decision that’s befallen you. But, like the top storylines from Week 8, instead of focusing on the result, let’s walk through the underlying mechanics to find the actionable takeaways we can use so we can compete with the rest of our leagues.

Tua (and the Dolphins offense) is back!

A 234-yard outing doesn’t sound all that exciting for a QB. It comes off as a more ho-hum performance than anything else on the surface. But one thing’s for sure. Miami’s offense has its swagger back.

At first glance, a 30-yard completion to Tyreek Hill should be normal for the Dolphins. However, none of the WRs have made a reception on a pass of more than 20 air yards since Week 1. Of course, one throw doesn’t make up an entire offense (ask Anthony Richardson). But the quickness that’s defined the Dolphins’ passing game isn’t limited to pass-catchers.

• Tua Tagovailoa (Week 8): 2.16 (average time to throw), 0.27 (EPA per dropback)

• Tyler Huntley: 2.61, -0.25

• Skylar Thompson (as a starter): 2.84, -0.49

Per TruMedia, Tagovailoa’s deep shot to Tyreek took 1.7 seconds for him to pull the trigger. Similarly, Tagovailoa hooked up with Jaylen Waddle for 20 yards in the third quarter 1.2 seconds after the snap. Anticipatory throws are a feature of the passing game — not a bug. It’s part of why having Huntley, Thompson or Tim Boyle operate the offense didn’t make sense. Throwing to a location versus throwing to a player is a skill set they don’t possess. Tagovailoa’s accuracy and quick processing are what unlocks this offense and why the Dolphins’ skill players should be back in fantasy football lineups.

• Offensive Success Rate: 47.1% (w/ Tua), 38.3% (without Tua)

• Yards per Drive: 37.2, 21.0

• Red-Zone Plays per Game: 16.0, 9.0

In Tua’s first game back, Hill and Waddle maintained their roles as the WR1 and 2, with Hill hoarding 53.1% of the team’s air yards. Waddle’s designation as the X-receiver (only a 14.5% slot rate) adds volatility to his week-to-week outlook, but he still earned looks downfield and in scoring position. In either case, we should pay more attention to Miami’s backfield.

Week 8 marked the second straight game where Raheem Mostert handled all of the goal-line carries and the third consecutive contest with the most red-zone totes. We didn’t care because the offense was in a rut. However, with Tua enabling more plays in scoring position and De’Von Achane taking on a larger role as a receiver (+15.0% target share in four of seven games), Raheem Mostert (and Jaylen Wright) should be on our benches as the Dolphins get back on track.

Houston, we have a problem

Stefon Diggs is done for the season.

Nico Collins won’t be back until at least Week 10.

Houston’s dreams of a high-flying passing attack have turned into a nightmare before even getting to the midway point of the season. As a result, C.J. Stroud hasn’t finished as a QB1 in a month. Typically, we’d apply the “next-man-up” philosophy to the news about Diggs and pick up the WR he and company have kept buried on the roster. But I’d rather prioritize other popular pass-catchers on waivers this week.

Stroud has been under duress on more than 25.0% of his dropbacks in every game this season. In Week 1, it was OK to see him roll out of the pocket and create downfield. Again, it was Week 1. We expected the line to come together as the season progressed. Plus, he had Collins and Diggs. Now, with neither, the offensive line issues become all the more glaring.

Luckily, Stroud’s superpower of diagnosing coverages has limited negative plays. Despite the line failing, his 19.8% pressure-to-sack rate sits around the league average (18.9%). But, when coupled with fewer route technicians on the field, we’ve seen more mechanical issues from the Texans’ franchise QB.

I’ll admit, it’s just one pass. We’ve seen Stroud reset his body to connect with his pass-catchers even with defenders bearing down on him. The problem is his margin for error has become thinner. Any off-target throw, especially with time to operate, becomes all the more frustrating. Even worse, the play-calling hasn’t given us much confidence things will get magically get better.

• Early-Down Passing Rate: 54.3% (w/ Collins), 48.9% (w/out)

• RB Target Rate: 16.3%, 17.4%

• TE Target Rate: 14.3%, 24.4%

Tampa Bay lost Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and OC Liam Cohen responded by featuring his TEs and RBs on 52.1% of Baker Mayfield’s attempts. Without Collins, Houston has done the opposite. They’ve called more running plays (behind a line that can’t block) and offered fewer short-area options for Stroud. There are no layups here.

Joe Mixon’s elite workload will keep him insulated from the offensive inefficiencies. Dalton Schultz already had 15.0% of the team’s targets in four of his last five games and will be a mid-range TE2. But keep an eye out for Tank Dell. He’s played primarily on the outside with Collins out, giving Diggs the underneath role. But if the Texans have any hope of contending in the AFC South, OC Bobby Slowik has to find ways to get the ball to his most dynamic receiver.

Is Bo Nix more than just a streamer?

If we, as a community and as a culture, could do away with National Tight Ends Day, I’d be fine with that decision. But I’ll make an exception here:

First off, shoutout to Adam Trautman, the pride of Dayton (my hometown), for the one-handed grab. He, along with 10 of his friends, boosted Bo Nix to career-highs in passing yardage and total TDs (three passing, one rushing). Nix was the QB2 on the week! But I can already hear the pushback on considering him as a weekly starter.

Denver played Carolina. Every team Carolina has faced has scored three touchdowns or more. If you need a get-right game, check to see when the Panthers are on the schedule. OK, fair.

However, let’s add some context to the Nix hype.

• Designed Rushing Rate (last two years of college): 11.2% (Nix), 19.8% (Daniels), 15.4% (Maye), 15.7% (Williams)

• Scramble Rate: 4.9%, 13.7%, 13.5%, 5.9%

• Passing aDOT: 6.7, 8.9, 9.8, 8.8

• Completion Rate: 74.7%, 69.5%, 64.6%, 67.2%

Nix operated the Oregon offense with quick darts to his receivers. Despite the lower aDOT, he was one of the most efficient passers across the middle of the field.

More important for fantasy, the boy can scoot!

Coming into the league with Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye overshadowed his 146 carries to close out his time in college. Regardless, Nix’s mobility has given him a floor for fantasy value.

• Rushing Yards per Game: 32.4 (7th-most amongst all QBs — min. 128 dropbacks)

• Rushing First Downs: 24 (4th-most)

• FPPG as a Runner: 6.2 (5th-most)

Last season, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson all maintained their QB1 ranks, averaging 7.0 or more points per game on the ground. Nix, at QB9 on the season, isn’t too far behind with 6.2 PPG. And, critically, his passing acumen has taken a step forward.

Admittedly, if you look at his accuracy, the progress would be hard to spot. But focus on where he’s throwing the ball. Nix averaged -0.24 EPA per dropback on throws to the middle of the field in Weeks 1-4. His efficiency has jumped to 0.10 over the last month. Denver’s use of 12-personnel groupings has also been on the rise, giving Nix more receiving options (Krull, Trautman and Adkins). And with a top-rated blocking unit, the rookie QB has faced pressure at the eighth-lowest rate.

The Broncos faced the Ravens, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders and Browns before their bye. Three of those rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Kansas City, the toughest of the group, has surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards to QBs. Given his floor as a rusher and increased performance as a passer, Nix belongs in the conversation as a weekly starter moving forward.

Ladd McConkey has entered the rookie WR chat

After eight games, this rookie has the second-highest target share of any first-year WR (23.9%). His 24.1% TPRR in the first two months of his career is greater than Ja’Marr Chase’s (22.8%), Justin Jefferson’s (22.0%) and CeeDee Lamb’s (21.6%) in theirs. And, unless you read the subtopic heading, you wouldn’t know who it was.

Marvin Harrison Jr.? Nope.

Brian Thomas Jr.? No, and I hope he’s back on the field soon.

It’s this guy:

Ladd McConkey has quietly earned WR1 volume since the Chargers’ season opener. The former Bulldog has had one game with less than 20.0% of the team’s targets or air yards. And the dip was primarily due to a hip injury he sustained the week prior. Regardless, McConkey and Justin Herbert have been in sync since the beginning of the season, and McConkey has asserted himself as Herbert’s WR1.

• Target Share when Herbert Pressured: 36.7% (highest on the team)

• Target Share in Obvious Passing Situations: 24.6% (highest on the team)

• Deep-ball Target Share: 17.4% (tied for team lead)

If Herbert needs a WR to win, he’s chosen McConkey. They’ve connected at every level of the field, and it’s either been the rookie’s technical skills as a route runner or the veteran’s pocket presence that’s kept the Chargers on schedule. However, even after a career day, I’m hesitant to slot him into my starting lineup.

• Neutral Early-Down Passing Rate: 51.2% (18th)

• Pass Rate Over Expectation: -4.3% (19th)

• Average Dropbacks per Game: 31.1 (25th out of 31 qualifiers – min. 128 dropbacks)

There’s no doubt the Chargers have their WR1. But the offense, specifically the passing game, doesn’t offer the same number of opportunities to their top receiver each week as others. Here’s where using rate stats can get us into trouble.

The highest amount of targets McConkey has earned in a single game is seven. He’s averaging 6.3 a game. For reference, so are Allen Lazard and Jerry Jeudy. Put another way, McConkey has 45 targets on the season. So does Nico Collins, and he’s missed three games. McConkey’s team situation puts him in the high-end WR3 category.

Games like Week 8 are always in the cards for McConkey. And, since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers have had positive pass rates in each of their three games. But he’ll have to rely on efficiency (3.70 yards per route run) to get there, not a healthy workload. Plus, he’s got another aspect of the offense to contend with that keeps him out of the end zone.

J.K. Dobbins has beaten the odds and been a workhorse RB for the Chargers. The former Raven has taken over 50.0% of the rushing attempts in all but two games and secured an 11.0% target share. Think of him as a slightly lesser version of Josh Jacobs. Both see plenty of touches, but Jacobs has the better offense. But in Dobbins’ case, he has some competition waiting in the wings.

Dobbins opened the season with a 19.4% explosive play rate. He had five runs of 30 yards or more in two weeks. Since then, his 17 attempts per game have kept him churning out yards and TDs. but Kimani Vidal is ready to take on more work when the time comes. Dobbins is a locked-in starter for the time being, but Vidal should find his way onto your bench if available on waivers.

I’m buying this Kyle Pitts resurgence, and so should you

I realize just by typing this I’ve jinxed him and anyone rostering him.

Falcons fans, I’m sorry.

Anyway, boxscore results aside, we saw the athleticism of Kyle Pitts, which made us want to draft him, on display in Week 8:

Pause the clip at five seconds. Count how many defenders are within about five yards of Pitts (I’ll be fair; one of the LBs was already a step behind). Now, add in the context he scores on this play. Having him use his size and burst to get into the open field is what we’ve always wanted. Accordingly, a couple of elements stuck out, giving me the confidence to trust him as an every-week starter:

• Target Share: 13.0% (Weeks 1-4), 19.0% (Weeks 5-8)

• Targets per Route Run: 14.0%, 26.0%

• Air Yard Share: 16.0%, 20.0%

Pitts’ raw volume has ticked up throughout the last month. He has just three fewer targets (27) than Cade Otton and more receiving yards (314) than Otton (240) and Hunter Henry (210). Coincidentally, Drake London’s usage has been on the decline. Atlanta’s WR1 hit a season-high of 13 targets in Week 5. Since the inflection point, London has fallen to a 21.0% share of the looks. Usually, I wouldn’t see any direct relationship between the workloads for a WR and TE. However, the overlap in how OC Zac Robinson has deployed the two lends credence to the idea.

• Slot Snap Rate: 29.4% (Weeks 1-4), 32.8% (weeks 5-8)

• Slot Target Rate: 7.1%, 24.6%

• aDOT: 10.1, 7.8

Lining up in the slot doesn’t guarantee you’ll earn a target from there. I say this mostly for myself, who looks at slot snap rates as a gauge of route diversity and conflates the two. Anyway, Kirk Cousins has more than one option in the middle of the field now. Go back and look at Pitts’ pre-snap alignment on the TD catch-and-run. The route concepts and his athletic traits are the perfect match.

Acquiring pieces of Atlanta’s offense should’ve been on our radar for a while. Since Week 2, they are one of six teams with top-10 marks in rushing and passing success rate. Only the Lions, Commanders, 49ers and Ravens have averaged more scrimmage yards per game. The environment for Pitts was always conducive to fantasy production. Now, the scheme (with him involved) should continue to set him up for strong performances in the weeks ahead.