NASCAR Playoffs: How real are Kyle Larson’s chances of elimination before Phoenix?

Could Kyle Larson really miss out on a chance to race for the 2024 Cup Series title?

The best driver in the Cup Series this season is fifth in the Cup Series standings heading into the final race of the third round on Sunday at Martinsville. Thanks to wins by Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick, the 2021 champion and six-time race winner this season is seven points behind Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron for the final spot in the final four.

In case you need a refresher on the NASCAR playoff system, a win automatically advances a driver to the next round. That’s why Logano and Reddick are guaranteed a shot at the title in Phoenix on Nov. 10.

If one of the other six drivers in the playoffs wins on Sunday, he’s in the final race too. If Logano or Reddick (or a driver outside the playoffs) wins the race, then two drivers will advance to the final round via their position in the standings.

Here’s a look at how each of the eight playoff drivers have fared at Martinsville ahead of Sunday’s race.

1. Joey Logano (won at Las Vegas)

• 31 starts, 1 win, 11 top fives, 19 top 10s

• Average finish: 10.8

Despite winning just once in 31 starts, Logano has the third-best average finish of any driver in Sunday’s race (the two drivers ahead of him are also in the playoffs). Martinsville has also been the site of Logano’s biggest playoff heartbreaks, but that won’t matter this year. He’s racing for the win and nothing else.

1. Tyler Reddick (won at Homestead)

• 9 starts, 2 top 10s

• Average finish: 19.3

Reddick’s win at Homestead is still incredible days later given his pass on the last lap of Ryan Blaney on older tires. He also really needed it to make the final round given his past performance at Martinsville. His best finish at the half-mile track is a seventh earlier this season.

3. Christopher Bell (4,132 points)

• 9 starts, 1 win, 1 top five, 3 top 10s

• Average finish: 16.2

Bell won this race two years ago to give himself a shot at the title. Last fall, he was seventh. He’s finished on the lead lap in six of his nine starts and given his points cushion to Larson, a lead-lap finish with a few stage points could be enough to advance to the playoffs.

4. William Byron (4,110)

• 13 starts, 2 wins, 5 top fives, 7 top 10s

• Average finish: 13.8

Byron has been very good at Martinsville after some early career struggles. He’s finished in the top seven in five of his last seven starts and won the spring race in 2022 and earlier this season. Simply running ahead of Larson in all three stages will be good enough to get into the playoffs unless a driver behind him in the playoff standings takes the win.

5. Kyle Larson (4,103)

• 19 starts, 1 win, 5 top fives, 7 top 10s

• Average finish: 16.7

Larson has been so much better at Martinsville at Hendrick than he was at Chip Ganassi Racing. From 2014-2019, Larson finished in the top 10 just twice. In seven starts with Hendrick, Larson has five top 10s and has never finished outside the top 20. He’s also led laps in four of the last six races. If you had to bet on a driver in a must-win situation, Larson is probably your first pick.

6. Denny Hamlin, 4,092)

• 37 starts, 5 wins, 19 top fives, 25 top 10s

• Average finish: 10.2

Is this set up to be another playoff disappointment for Hamlin? He didn’t have the speed to hold off Blaney and Reddick in the final laps at Homestead and is on the outside looking in heading into Martinsville. Outside of Richmond, there’s no better track for Hamlin to be racing at in this situation, however. Hamlin hasn’t won at Martinsville since the spring race in 2015, but he’s finished in the top five nine different times since and has led a ton of laps. Win No. 6 over nine years after No. 5 would be very sweet.

7. Ryan Blaney (4,072)

• 17 starts, 1 win, 9 top fives, 11 top 10s

• Average finish: 8.8

Blaney needs to do what he did a season ago. In 2023, Blaney led 145 laps to win his first race at Martinsville. A week later, he was the 2023 Cup Series champion. No active driver has a better average finish at Martinsville than Blaney does and his run of top-11 finishes is downright remarkable. He hasn’t finished lower than 11th since he was 20th in the 2018 fall race.

8. Chase Elliott (4,067)

• 18 starts, 1 win, 6 top ives, 11 top 10s

• Average finish: 12.7

Elliott’s season has been defined by consistency. But his second DNF of the season at Las Vegas has put him in a big hole heading into Sunday’s race. Elliott has 30 lead-lap finishes over 34 races this season, but needs much, much more than that. His Martinsville win came in the fall of 2020 on the way to his first Cup Series title.