Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Caleb Williams and the Bears are down bad

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Hill is the WR41 in fantasy points per game this season, and the return of Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t helped as anticipated. The Dolphins shockingly have the second-lowest WR target share (49.1%) this season. Running back De’Von Achane led Miami in first-read target% on Monday night, when Hill was tied for third with tight end Jonnu Smith.

Hill has four times as many games with fewer than 25 receiving yards as he had over the past two seasons combined. Tagovailoa ranks 36th in deep throw attempt rate (7.7%). He recently passed Patrick Mahomes with the lowest average intended air yards (5.4) among all quarterbacks this season. Hill has taken a backseat to an offense that no longer throws deep (or scores as many points), and a wrist injury could help explain it.

Hill’s wrist has been bothering him reportedly since training camp (and worsened during his arrest), and the initial MRI showed a torn ligament. It could be contributing to his declining route win rate this season. Hill’s fantasy managers are surely panicking given the new offense and injury news.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb was able to maintain fantasy production with Cooper Rush in the past, but his first game this season was a disaster. Rush lost as many fumbles (2.0) as he got yards per attempt. It was the fewest passing yards in a game with at least 20 attempts since 2015. Rush finished with a completion percentage over expectation (-13.5) in the eighth percentile despite an average depth of target of just 6.4 yards (18th percentile). Lamb’s 10 targets resulted in 21 scoreless yards, including losing a touchdown in the sun.

Trey Lance wasn’t any better while taking two sacks and getting picked off on six pass attempts, as Dallas finished with 32 net passing yards. Dak Prescott is officially out for the season. A move to Lance would be a disaster for Lamb’s fantasy value, but Rush remains the starter in Week 11.

Lamb’s “expert consensus rank” this week is the WR15, as it’s hard to go too much lower on a player who leads the NFL in target share since Week 4. But Lamb’s new situation (and banged up shoulder) have fantasy managers entering the coping corner (he’s now a WR2).

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Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams isn’t likely in many starting fantasy lineups these days, but managers are still hoping for life from Chicago’s pass catchers. And from a bigger viewpoint, there’s real concern over the future of this year’s No. 1 draft pick. Williams is having one of the worst QB seasons in recent memory, ranking last among 106 quarterbacks since 2021 in catchable throw rate. He also ranks last in pressure-to-sack ratio over that span.

Chicago’s offensive line has been average in pass blocking, while Williams has the highest average time to pressure in the league. When not pressured, Williams ranks 31st in Success Rate. He has the worst completion percentage on throws 15+ yards among 468 QBs over the past 15 years. Williams’ first career nine starts haven’t been quite as bad as Bryce Young or David Carr, but he’s right in their territory.

Williams has faced the third easiest schedule-adjusted QB schedule so far! And he gets the eighth toughest moving forward. When not facing Jacksonville or Carolina defenses that rank bottom-three in EPA/pass this season, Williams has averaged 179.3 passing yards (5.3 YPA!) with only three touchdown passes over seven games. The Bears fired OC Shane Waldron, and even the discussion of benching Williams is shocking for someone with his college resume. Reportedly, some veteran teammates are calling for Tyson Bagent.

The Bears’ offense ranks last in yards per drive, EPA/dropback, sacks allowed and touchdowns since their Week 7 bye. Chicago hasn’t produced a top-20 performance at wide receiver since Week 6, and DJ Moore has only one all season. D’Andre Swift also suffers from Williams’ struggles, as his splits in wins (108.6 yards from scrimmage, 0.75 TDs) versus losses (72.0 YFS, 0.2 TDs) have been dramatic.

Williams obviously has a ton of time to improve, and a complete coaching overhaul during the offseason could help. But his NFL start has been highly concerning, and there’s zero chance New England or Washington would swap QBs right now.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas Jr. has seen his targets drop in half while averaging just 17.0 receiving yards over two games since suffering a chest injury. He also suffered from Mac Jones taking over at QB last week, which could last over the rest of the season with Trevor Lawrence dealing with a significant shoulder injury. Jones managed a meager 4.5 YPA last week against a Minnesota defense allowing the seventh most passing yards. Jones targeted his tight ends on 59% of his passes, which isn’t ideal for the rookie wideout. While Lawrence hasn’t been the prince we were promised, he’s still leading the league in end zone targets (after missing a game), and Jones is a notable downgrade.

Thomas ranks top 10 in yards per route run and sixth in fantasy points per target as a rookie, but his leap into fantasy stardom may have to wait until next season.

J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

Dobbins’ weighted opportunity share dropped to 56.5% last week with Gus Edwards’ return. He and Edwards both had 10 carries before Dobbins took the final five. On the plus side, Dobbins registered his highest route participation rate (74%) and target share (17%) of the season while recording 18 touches.

Dobbins was also unlucky last week, getting tackled at the one-yard line and watched Justin Herbert and Hassan Haskins punch in short scores. But Edwards (or Haskins?) could be a problem at the goal line, and Dobbins has gotten just 3.5 YPC since Week 3 while returning from Achilles surgery. Dobbins remains an RB2, but Edwards’ return is a hit to his fantasy value.