Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul predictions, odds, expert picks: Can Tyson turn back the clock?

DALLAS — It’s actually happening. Mike Tyson will compete in a professional boxing match for the first time since 2005 when he steps into the ring Friday, and welcoming him back will be 27-year-old YouTube sensation-turned-pugilist Jake Paul.

Putting anyone’s personal feelings aside, this is undeniably a spectacle. Paul vs. Tyson kicks off a potentially new era of Netflix live combat sports. To set the scene, the action goes down inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys play.

The Paul saga is lasting longer than anyone expected when he entered boxing professionally in 2020. Regardless of the result, people’s feelings toward him will not change, and he’ll stick around for whatever can top a fight like this. On the other hand, Tyson is surely — and hopefully — getting in the ring for one last time at 58 years old.

Our bizarro main event isn’t the only compelling (for better or worse) match on Friday’s lineup.

In the co-main event, fans will be treated to a highly anticipated rematch between arguably the world’s two best female boxers, Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano. Gold will be on the line in that bout along with Mario Barrios’ defense against Abel Ramos in the preceding match.

But who will get their hands raised?

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

200-plus pounds: Jake Paul (-210) vs. Mike Tyson (+170)

Embrace the chaos, folks. What more needs to be said?

This matchup revolves exclusively around the unknown and one question that can’t be answered until fight night: Do Tyson’s skills supersede his age of 58? If the iconic puncher can get over the proverbial hump that is Father Time, Paul has no hope outside of a big shot.

This is still “Iron Mike” we’re talking about.

Although Tyson (50-6, 44 KOs) hasn’t fought in a pro bout since his 2005 loss to Kevin McBride, he did return for an equally bizarre 2020 exhibition against fellow legend Roy Jones Jr. While Tyson looked solid in that match and would have won had a winner been determinable, it was against a 51-year-old Jones. The same Jones lost a majority decision to former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis in 2023.

Paul’s best asset in boxing is his power. He’s worked on his fundamentals gradually over his 11 matches (10-1, 7 KOs). We won’t kid ourselves and say his competition has proven he’s a future world champion or anything. It has not, and the glaring evidence of that is his lone loss, a split decision to mediocre boxer Tommy Fury in February 2023.

Speed and every other physical advantage goes to Paul by default of his youth. The eight two-minute rounds and 14-ounce gloves might do Tyson somewhat of a favor. He has to last long enough for that to matter, though.

The stage is set for a big knockout on either end. Flip a coin between incredible happiness and sadness. Power is the last thing to go and it will have to be Tyson’s saving grace as we’ve seen Paul hurt by lesser knockout artists, albeit minimally. Unfortunately for the integrity of the sport and its legends, we’ll have to take the realistic outcome. And that’s a Paul knockout.

Pick: Paul

138 pounds: (C) Katie Taylor (+105) vs. Amanda Serrano (-140)

This is the real main event, ladies and gentlemen.

Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano II is a rematch of one of the best boxing matches in recent memory. Some even say ever, especially among women’s boxing matches. If you haven’t seen it, get hyped and watch it on YouTube because it’s a great time.

The first fight had a somewhat controversial result — nothing new for boxing at the highest level. Taylor won the fight via a split decision after coming on strong in the second half of the 10-round war. I scored the fight in favor of Serrano, with the first six rounds 10-9 for her, and the rest for Taylor via the same tally.

Serrano started the action very aggressively and dictated the fight immediately. She successfully backed up Taylor for six rounds and had her on the ropes defending. The formula worked so well that she should have gotten the nod and nearly put away Taylor in an insane fifth round. That was a wrap if she poured it on heavier in those staggering moments.

Taylor, 38, has gone 2-1 (23-1 overall) while the 36-year-old Serrano is 5-0 (47-2-1 overall) since their April 2022 clash. Taylor has shown more signs of slowing than Serrano, starting with their first fight, and there’s no reason Serrano should stray from her original game plan. If anything, she won’t lay off when there’s blood in the water. She’ll claim the WBA, WBC, IBF, WBO and The Ring lightweight titles, and don’t be surprised if it comes by stoppage.

Pick: Serrano

140 pounds: (C) Mario Barrios (-1600) vs. Abel Ramos (+650)

Mario Barrios, 29, has gotten back on track with three straight wins after his first career losses (29-2, 18 KOs) to Gervonta “Tank” Davis and Keith Thurman. There’s no shame in losing to either boxer, and Barrios has remained a fixture and top competitor. He’s still working to take things to the upper echelon and gets a nice spotlight to show off against Abel Ramos.

A win for the 33-year-old Ramos would be a big upset. Barrios will be the toughest challenge of his 36-match career (28-6-2, 22 KOs). If Ramos can make the match dirty and take shots to give some, his durability can shine as he’s only been finished once with 22 under his belt. Unfortunately for Ramos, he and Barrios are going in different directions with their skill development. The champ is too slick and packs a punch of his own.

“And still” for the WBC titleholder Barrios.

Pick: Barrios

Paul vs. Tyson can’t be topped in the “freak show” category, but Friday’s card also has this one to give it a good run for its money.

Whindersson Nunes, 29, is a Brazilian YouTuber who followed the Paul blueprint and decided he wanted to box. His success rate has been mixed in his amateur matches thus far. Like Paul, Nunes went against MMA fighters and fellow YouTubers before he made his pro debut in September 2023, which he lost to Thai YouTuber “My Mate Nate.”

What am I even typing here?

The 33-year-old Neeraj Goyat is an actual 18-4-2 pro boxer and 2-0 MMA fighter with several national and international accolades. This is a thing that is happening.

Pick: Goyat

Preliminary quick picks:

Shadasia Green def. Melinda Watpool

Lucas Bahdi def. Corey Marksman

Bruce Carrington Jr. def. Dana Coolwell