Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Dissecting Jayden Daniels’ recent dip in production

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers

Samuel Sr. was supposed to see a spike in production with Brandon Aiyuk out, but he’s been the WR47 in fantasy points per game over four games since BA went down. It’s possible the lingering effects of pneumonia have contributed to Samuel’s disappointing box scores, but he has fantasy managers panicking either way. Samuel has -20% fantasy points over expected this season and remained quiet last week even with George Kittle also out. He’s taken a backseat to Jauan Jennings; Samuel has a 23.9% first-read target share over the last two weeks compared to 41.3% for Jennings.

Brock Purdy is now dealing with a sore shoulder, adding another concern. Moreover, Samuel is less likely to get carries in the red zone with Christian McCaffrey back in action. Samuel will likely have spike weeks, but the explosive plays haven’t been there, and Jennings has emerged as San Francisco’s clear No. 1 WR.

Samuel hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game since Week 2, and he’s finished as a top-10 WR just once this season. Samuel is still the WR15 in this week’s “expert consensus ranks,” but his fantasy managers are likely losing hope.

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Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels averaged 10.5 rush attempts, 53.7 rush yards and 0.7 rush TDs over six games before suffering a rib injury. He’s averaged 6.5 rush attempts, 27.5 rush yards and 0 rush TDs over four games since. However, Daniels’ opponents have featured three defenses ranked top four in QB fantasy points allowed over that span, including arguably the league’s hottest defense last week. Those defenses have also limited QB rushing, and Dan Quinn has insisted Daniels isn’t playing injured.

Daniels’ schedule looks much more favorable moving forward, so his recent slump (he’s been the QB21 in ppg over the last four weeks since the injury) may present an opportunity to buy low if your league’s trade deadline hasn’t passed.

Malik Nabers, New York Giants

Nabers has been the WR40 in fantasy points per game since returning from a concussion in Week 7. He already has the second most unrealized air yards (596) in the league, and now the Giants are turning to Tommy DeVito at quarterback. While Daniel Jones has been a problem, the move was financially motivated (possibly as well as the decision to bypass Drew Lock), so there’s concern Nabers’ situation has gotten even worse.

DeVito’s 6.2 YPA is close enough to Jones’ 6.5, but New York’s new QB owns a 17.2% sack rate and a lower aDOT. DeVito averaged only 172 passing yards and 0.9 TDs in five games where he played at least 80% of the snaps last year, but Jones averaged just 191 passing yards without Nabers last season, so maybe the downgrade won’t be significant.

Nabers hasn’t seen a single red-zone target since Week 4, so there’s an argument things can’t possibly get worse. Nabers ranks first in ESPN’s Open Score by a mile; his grade is 99, and the second best is 89. Moreover, the Giants go from having the league’s 12th-toughest WR schedule so far to having the second-easiest rest of season.

Fantasy managers have the right to be concerned, but regression, Nabers’ immense talent and a highly favorable schedule can still lead to top-15 WR production down the stretch.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Chubb got 4.5 YPC last week but saw a season-low 11 opportunities in a favorable matchup coming out of Cleveland’s bye. A short turnaround with an upcoming Thursday night game was given as a reason, but Jerome Ford ran more routes and out-snapped Chubb, 41 to 22. Chubb’s 61% rush share was a season low, and the score was 14-14 entering the fourth quarter, so game script wasn’t a major issue. Chubb’s snap share fell to 19% after the first quarter.

Cleveland’s offensive line has been a problem, and the Browns have one of the league’s highest pass rates over expectation since Jameis Winston took over. Chubb hasn’t looked the same (3.1 YPC) since returning from another serious knee surgery, and he has just two receptions over four games. The Browns have the fourth-toughest RB schedule rest of season, so Chubb looks unlikely to make the impact fantasy managers had hoped.

D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

Swift’s snap share (54%), route share (38%) and opportunity share (59%) all dropped during Chicago’s first game with new OC Thomas Brown last week. Swift recorded a 39-yard touchdown run, but Johnson took over the two-minute and goal-line roles. Johnson saw four opportunities in the red zone compared to one for Swift, including both goal-line attempts. Johnson recorded season highs in snap share (44%) and rush share (34%).

The offensive coordinator switch wasn’t all bad news for Swift; Chicago limited its sacks taken, Swift saw more outside carries and the Bears had by far the league’s lowest neutral pass rate (45%). However, Swift’s schedule goes from the second easiest up until now to the second-toughest rest of season.

Swift has looked rejuvenated this season, but Caleb Williams’ struggles have held back his production. Fantasy managers now have another concern with Johnson’s increased role.