Fantasy Football Week 12 Start Sit Decisions: Stack the Dolphins

Quarterback

Start: Jared Goff, Lions

Goff was the poster boy of this article last week, putting up 414 yards and four scores in a blowout win over the Jaguars. We’re going right back to the well for Week 12. The Colts have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year and the Lions have the highest team total of the week at 29.25 points. Goff is averaging 344 yards and 2.3 touchdowns against top-10 fantasy matchups for quarterbacks this season and has topped 300 yards in all three contests.

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Start: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

The Dolphins are slowly opening their offense in the weeks following Tua’s return to the lineup. They had a -3% pass rate over expected in his first two games back. That is up to +3% in his two most recent games.

Even with a conservative approach, Tua has quietly risen to the top of the spreadsheets once again. He currently ranks fourth in EPA per play and seventh in CPOE this year. Vegas is buying the rebound as well with a 26.75 implied team total, the fourth-highest of the slate.

Sit: Drake Maye, Patriots

Maye’s fantasy output has been wildly impressive given the state of his offensive line and the Pats’ weapons. His rushing output has played a big part in his 18.2 fantasy points per game. Maye is averaging 41 yards per game on the ground. That aspect of his game might not exist this week. The Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this year and are elite at defending scrambles. They have given up just four explosive gains on scrambles and are top-five in preventing scramble yards.

Sit: Sam Darnold, Vikings

Darnold is staring down a nightmare matchup with the Bears. Chicago has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and ranks second in EPA per dropback allowed.

The Bears have given up two QB1 performances this year. Darnold is down to 16.8 fantasy points per game over his past six appearances averaging 20.6 through the first month of the year. A date with arguably the best defense in the NFL isn’t going to turn things around for him.

Running Back

Start: Brian Robinson, Commanders

The Commanders are at home, favored by over 10 points, and have a 27.75 implied team total. This is the spot of all spots for a two-down running back. Washington has also leaned into their ground game when they pull ahead. The Commanders have a 56 percent run rate when up by more than a field goal. That is the 10th-highest mark in the NFL. Dallas is also facing the fourth-lowest pass rate over expected this year. It doesn’t get better than this for Robinson.

Start: James Conner, Cardinals

Speaking of teams who take the air out of the football with a lead: The Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has a 57 percent run rate with a lead of even one point, the fifth-highest mark in the league. To no one’s surprise, this has sent Conner’s fantasies production through the roof in Cardinals wins.

He gains an additional 5.7 carries for 35 yards in wins versus losses. The Cardinals are slight favorites over Seattle this week, putting Conner in position for an RB1 outing.

Sit: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys

With his team projected for a double-digit loss, Dowdle needs a pass-catching role to fall back on in lieu of a high carry total. That job, however, belongs in part to Hunter Luepke. Dallas’s fullback has been on the field for 74 percent of the team’s long down and distance snaps over their past three games. He has seen the bulk of the two-minute drill snaps, relegating Dowdle to fewer than half of the routes. A less-than-complete role through the air makes him a high-risk RB3 for Week 12.

Sit: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers

Jonathon Brooks making his debut isn’t ideal for Hubbard, but his matchup with the Chiefs is an even bigger issue. The Chiefs are allowing 12.5 fantasy points to opposing running backs this year. That is the least points with a 1.7-point margin to team No. 31. They have faced the fewest rush attempts and allowed the fewest yards. As 10.5-point dogs, the Panthers won’t get the chance to establish the run this week.

Wide Receiver

Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

It’s JSN week once again. Even with DK Metcalf back in the lineup on Sunday, the former Buckeye led Seattle with a 35 percent target share. The 49ers are more susceptible to underneath receivers than deep threats, so it was the perfect setup for Smith-Njigba. Luckily for him, his Week 12 date with Arizona is a similar situation. The Cardinals are top-10 in preventing deep completions this year, putting JSN in position for another No. 1 WR game.

Start: Courtland Sutton, Broncos

Sutton has been dealing over the past four weeks. He is averaging 19.1 PPR points per game and is the WR5 overall during that stretch. His elite volume metrics suggest this pace is sustainable as well. He has a 30 percent target share and a 46 percent air yards share over his past four appearances.

Sit: Malik Nabers, Giants

With Daniel Jones not only benched but also cut, the Giants are turning to Tommy DeVito under center. That is as bleak as it gets for the wide receivers. Since 2018, DeVito ranks 90th out of 94 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play. He averaged 17 completions for 172 yards in his five full starts last year. Nabers is also playing through a groin injury that cropped up late in the week. It’s past time for the Giants’ season to be over.

Sit: DJ Moore, Bears

Moore’s role in the Chicago offense has been dwindling for weeks. Even with four screen looks in Week 12, Moore’s target share still sat at third on the team, behind both Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. He had a 26 percent target share through five weeks. That has fallen to 22 percent in his past five appearances. His air yards share is also down nine percent. Moore is far from a true No. 1 receiver and his offense has been struggling for a month.

Tight End

Start: Zach Ertz, Commanders

Ertz has a 20 percent target share and at least five targets in four of his past five games. He is 10th in target share and fifth in air yards share among tight ends this season. Ertz is the PPR TE10, plays on a top-five offense, and is seeing a strong cut of the passing game. This isn’t rocket science.

Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins

Smith is the TE5 since Tua returned to the lineup in Week 8. He is fourth among tight ends in yards (212) and seventh in receptions (18) during that stretch. Smith has fully supplanted Jaylen Waddle as the de facto WR2 for Miami, logging a 19 percent target share to Waddle’s 14 percent over the past month.

Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens

Andrews’ role came crashing back to Earth last week with an 11 percent target share. That was tied for his lowest mark since Week 4. It also coincided with Isaiah Likely, who missed Week 10 with a hamstring issue, returning to the lineup. Andrews ran 21 routes to Likely’s 19 but was out-targeted by the latter 4-3. This development has Andrews back in the TE2 ranks for Week 12.

Sit: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings

Hockenson is in a similar spot to Andrews. His role was outstanding in Week 10 but collapsed on Sunday. He ran a route on 57 percent of Minnesota’s dropbacks and earned a 10 percent target share. Through three games since returning from injured reserve, Hockenson has run a route on 63 percent of Darnold’s dropbacks and has a 16 percent target share. Those are Jake Ferguson numbers: Not terrible, but not TE1 material either.