Michigan at Ohio State prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, and stats

Michigan (6-5) is contending with the inevitable after-effects from their iconic 2023 National Championship run, as their 76th ranked SP+ offense has dramatically reduced their ability to keep pace with the newly expanded Big Ten. UM went 4-2 through the first half of the schedule, but then dropped 3-of-4 to @Illinois (21-7), Oregon (38-17) and @Indiana (20-15) before scorching Northwestern 50-6. The Wolverines have finally settled on former walk-on QB Davis Warren who emerged from an early-season three-QB rotation to win the job. Michigan ranks second-to-last nationally (134th) in passing explosiveness and play at the 118th slowest pace in the country. Their run defense is top-flight, while UM’s secondary ranks 26th in pass explosiveness but is allowing a 61.4% (79th) and is a few notches down from their dominant 2023 version.

Ohio State (10-1) is defeating opponents by an average scoring margin of 27 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking Top 10 on each side of the ball in 3-and-out rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The main area of weakness on offense is the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 96th with a 10.6% blitz down sack rate and 72nd in overall sacks per pressure (20%). Defensively OSU is superb, ranking 1st in FBS according to SP+. The Buckeyes are facing the sixth-fewest number of deep passes in the country, with just 9.8% of passes defended coming 20+ yards downfield. They are allowing a somewhat elevated 60.3% completion rate, which ranks 61st nationally. Outside of a thrilling 32-31 loss to Oregon in Autzen Stadium, Ohio State has been flawless and staked their claim to a CFP Playoff appearance with a commanding 38-15 victory over Indiana in Week 13.

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Game details and how to watch Michigan at Ohio State

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Game odds for Michigan at Ohio State – Week 14

The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:

• Moneyline: Ohio State (-2000), Michigan (+1000)

• Spread: Ohio State (-20.5)

• Over/Under: 43.5 points

The look-ahead line for this game was at Ohio State -10 preseason, but now we’re at -20/20.5 across the board in early trading. The most favorable current moneyline odds are OSU -1428 and Michigan +1100, but Ohio State is sitting in the -2000 range on average. This game total briefly opened at 47.5 but is now available between 42.5 and 44.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks: “Ohio State just hung 38 points on Indiana and has scored at least 31 points in all but two of their 11 games this season. With Ohio State chomping at the bit to avenge their current Michigan losing streak, and the Wolverines being a shell of their 2023 selves, I am taking the Buckeyes to score 31.5 points against the Wolverines.”

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Quarterback matchup for Michigan at Ohio State

• Michigan: The quarterback three-man-weave between Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle failed in their effort to replicate departed QB JJ McCarthy’s success. Orji was notably behind the others in terms of passing acumen, producing just 148 passing yards on 43 attempts before mercifully being pulled in favor of Indiana transfer Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was barely serviceable before retiring and turning the job back to Warren. Since being reinserted into the starting role against Michigan State in Week 9, Warren has stabilized the position completing 64.3% of his passes with a 6-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging a mundane 5.8 yards per pass attempt. To his credit, Warren has thrown just one interception with a 13% pressure-to-sack rate since regaining his job and has earned a respectable 69th percentile PFF offensive grade on the year.

• Ohio State: Fifth-year QB Will Howard transferred from Kansas State to Ohio State this offseason, now the veteran former Wildcat leads the nation’s fifth-ranked SP+ offense for a top flight national title contender. He’s completing a scintillating 73.7% of his throws and is working with future first-round pick wideouts in Emeka Egbuka and generational freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient pass attack ranks 2nd in success rate and 5th in yards per dropback despite throwing just 11.2% of their passes 20+ yards downfield (110th). Howard’s 88.8 PFF passing grade is the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous best being 72.7.

Betting trends and stats for Michigan at Ohio State

• Michigan’s previously impenetrable secondary has intercepted 7 of 344 attempts this season (49-to-1 ratio), which is the 4th-lowest interception rate in the Big Ten. Purdue ranks last with a 67 pass attempts-to-interception ratio.

• Michigan’s offense has thrown for 1,541 passing yards in 11 games this season, the 7th-worst mark among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 151.7 passing yards per game this season, 4th-best among FBS defenses.

• Michigan’s RBs have averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch this season, the 5th-worst of FBS Rushers. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 5.1 YAC to RBs this season, 8th-best among FBS defenses.

• Ohio State’s opponents are holding the ball for an average of 30.4 seconds per play, which is the longest plays per second faced of any defense in the FBS. The OSU D ranks 1st nationally in points per scoring opportunity (2.47) and Red Zone touchdown rate (36%)

• Jeremiah Smith (OSU) has gained 899 yards on 52 receptions (17.3 YPR) this season, the 6th-best of Qualified Power 5 Skill Players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season, 25th-best among FBS defenses.

• Will Howard (OSU) has thrown 16 TDs on just 32 pass attempts in the Red Zone this season, the best Pass Attempts per TD among Power Four Quarterbacks.

• Quinshon Judkins (OSU) has averaged 6.1 yards from scrimmage per touch this season, 3rd-best among Big Ten Running Backs; TreVeyon Henderson is running for 10+ yards on 26.5% of his carries (26/98), the highest mark in FBS.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)

• Ohio State +320 to +275

• Georgia +500 to +400

• Texas +500 to +450

Highest Ticket%

• Ohio State 13.4%

• Texas 11.1%

• Georgia 10.5%

Highest Handle%

• Ohio State 15.9%

• Georgia 14.9%

• Alabama 12.1%

Biggest Liabilities

• Colorado

• Ohio State

• Alabama

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