Texas at Texas A&M prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, and stats

Texas (10-1) is having its best regular season in recent memory, with only SEC powerhouse Georgia handing them a loss to date. In fact, Texas achieved a 96%+ win expectancy in every victory except for an ugly 20-10 slog against @Arkansas (52%). Offensively the Longhorns rank 4th in SP+, 8th in rushing success rate and 15th in EPA/dropback. HC Steve Sarkisian can scheme winning gameplans in either phase of the game and have the benefit of falling back on the nation’s 2nd rated defense. UT’s elite secondary ranks 1st in yards per dropback allowed (4.0) and 2nd in EPA/dropback, while their rush D ranks 12th in EPA/rush but also is allowing an elevated 43.3% rushing success rate (73rd).

Texas A&M (8-3) dropped their opening game to a one-loss Notre Dame but then proceeded to go on a 7-win streak that included victories over @Florida, Arkansas, Missouri and LSU. However entering this game, the Aggies have lost two consecutive SEC contests to @South Carolina and @Auburn, so they’re looking to regroup. A&M is running the ball effectively, ranking 30th in rushing success rate and 24th in yards before contact. Their pass game has been plagued by inconsistency with a 58.8% completion rate (93rd), which lead to HC Mike Elko choosing to start dual-threat QB Marcel Reed over Conner Weigman. The Aggies rank 18th in SP+ defensive rating and ranks 13th in success rate allowed (36%). The number one problem has been allowing too many big plays, with Texas A&M ranking 121st in marginal explosiveness and 124th in yards per successful play allowed (14.0).

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

Game details and how to watch 2024 Texas at Texas A&M

· Date: Saturday, November 30, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Site: Kyle Field
· City: College Station, TX
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+

Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for Texas at Texas A&M – Week 14

The latest odds as of Wednesday morning courtesy of BetMGM:

This contest opened at Texas -4 but has since spiked to -5.5 and even a stray -6 if you shop it. There hasn’t been much movement on the moneyline, with A&M improving only slightly from an open of +185 to a market-high of +195 right now. Same with the game total, which has not budged from the initial 48.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Texas A&M has an outside shot at a CFP appearance with an upset of Texas and a victory in the SEC Championship game, while Texas is essentially locked in. Against the better defense on their schedule, Notre Dame and South Carolina, Texas A&M’s inconsistent offense got exposed. I don’t think the Aggies can keep pace with Texas, so i’m laying the -5.5 points, which I think gets to -7 by gameday.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Quarterback matchup for Texas at Texas A&M

• Texas:The Longhorns boast one of the most loaded QB rooms in the country between starter Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning. Ewers has completed 68% of his throws for 2,075 yards, 7.5 YPA and a 23-to-6 ratio. Despite the respectable numbers, his PFF passing grade of 66.5 is a drastic departure from his 85.6 passing grade from a year ago. UT is averaging a noticeably-low 7.5 air yards per target, which ranks 118th nationally, so HC Sarkisian has been more conservative in the pass game now that he has a top-flight defense to rely upon.

• Texas A&M: Former five-star QB Conner Weigman started the first two games before getting injured and missing the next three weeks. He returned to make three more starts before hitting 6-of-18 passes against LSU, which led to his removal in favor of dual-threat QB Marcel Reed. Reed has started six games and completed 59% of his passes for 8.0 YPA and a solid 12-to-3 ratio. His mobility has helped Reed to achieve a 11.8% pressure-to-sack rate and a 70th percentile PFF offensive grade. 

Betting trends and recent stats for Texas and Texas A&M

• Texas is throwing to running backs on 23.3% of team pass attempts, 12th-most in FBS. Quintrevion Wisner (TEX) has been targeted 39 times this season, 2nd-most among SEC Running Backs.

• Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.2% of 374 attempts this season, tied for 9th-best among FBS offenses. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed 20+ yards on just 8.6% of attempts this season, 5th-best among SEC defenses.

• Texas QBs have 16 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season, the most among FBS teams

• Texas has allowed 13 TDs this season, tied with Ohio State for the fewest among Power Conference teams.

• Texas A&M’s RBs have averaged 11.2 yards after the catch this season, 14th-best among FBS RBs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 8.7 YAC this season, best among FBS defenses.

• Texas A&M is 1-8 (.111) against the spread when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season, worst among Power Conference teams. (Average: .468)

• Texas A&M has allowed a completion rate of just 53% this season, 2nd-best in FBS. Notre Dame is #1 with a 49% completion rate allowed.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)

• Ohio State +320 to +275

• Georgia +500 to +400

• Texas +500 to +450

Highest Ticket%

• Ohio State 13.4%

• Texas 11.1%

• Georgia 10.5%

Highest Handle%

• Ohio State 15.9%

• Georgia 14.9%

• Alabama 12.1%

Biggest Liabilities

• Colorado

• Ohio State

• Alabama

College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)