Fantasy Football Week 14 Fades: Warning signs ahead for Nick Chubb!

Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 14.

Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.

QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy may just be coming off literally the worst fantasy performance of his career, scoring just 2.16 fantasy points on the back of a 94-yard passing game with 0 TD and 0 INT on 29 attempts. To be fair, there were several things working against him in Week 13, including a shoulder injury that held him out of the week prior and the mid-game loss of Christian McCaffrey to what ended up being a season-ending knee injury. Unfortunately, things may not get any better in the week to come with a matchup against the Bears on deck. Though he’s another week removed from the shoulder injury, he’ll still have an uphill battle to face up against the Chicago Bears defense.

The Bears haven’t always been a shut-down secondary this year; remember that one pesky little Hail Mary? That was a trip. However, despite some lapses in judgment, they’ve got some skill in the secondary between CBs Jaylon Johnson (one of the best in the biz) and Kyler Gordon along with safety Kevin Byard — and they have allowed just 11 TDs all season. They’ve been much more susceptible on the ground; it seems likely that HC Kyle Shanahan will lean on that weakness instead of emphasizing the passing game with a banged-up Purdy and several missing weapons.

Heat check 🔥 Given the challenging matchup on deck for Purdy and the fact that he’s not 100% healthy, he’s better left on benches in most single-QB leagues.

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RB Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers starting RB J.K. Dobbins was placed on IR with a knee injury ahead of Week 13, setting Gus Edwards up as the potential workhorse in a Jim Harbaugh-Greg Roman offense favoring the run and earning some hype in fantasy circles. Unfortunately, not much actually came of the hype; Edwards saw just six total carries on the day (32 yards) to Kimani Vidal’s six and one for Derius Davis.

The Chargers have a matchup on deck with the Kansas City Chiefs this week — a bit of a trap spot for most RBs this season. Just one RB has scored more than 15 fantasy points against the Chiefs in 2024 — James Cook in Week 11, who was still held to just 20 total rushing yards (2.22 YPC) on nine attempts, though he did manage to score two red-zone TDs. Though Edwards is theoretically the Chargers’ RB1 moving forward, competition for touches paired with a bad matchup has this penned as a bad week to count on him.

Heat check 🔥 Edwards showcased his low floor in Week 13 despite leading the backfield. Expect him to be a boom/bust prospect again in Week 14 (with bust being a much higher likelihood).

RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb’s return to football has been one of the greatest stories in all of football this year, with many questioning whether or not he would ever play the game again following a catastrophic knee injury in 2023. Though he’s made his return to the field, he hardly looks like his old self. In six games since his activation from IR, Chubb is averaging just 3.30 yards per carry (40.5 rush yards per game) and a career-low 40.2% successful run rate per Pro Football Reference. He’s similarly marking career-low averages in yards after contact per attempt (2.62) and breakaway yardage (6.2%) per PFF.

It seems like the Cleveland Browns have caught onto Chubb’s declining efficiency, too, as he saw just 34% of snaps, splitting the backfield with Jerome Ford, each with just nine carries on the day (and Ford was far more efficient with his touches, averaging 4.5 YPC to Chubb’s 2.3). The only thing saving Chubb’s day was a five-yard receiving touchdown in the fourth quarter.

This week, the Steelers have another matchup on deck with the Pittsburgh Steelers, this time on the road. Chubb had a season-high 20 carries in their Week 12 meeting but failed to surpass 60 rushing yards (despite scoring two TDs on the day). The Steelers are allowing just 4.1 YPC (fifth-lowest average in the league), including 2.6 rush yards after contact per attempt fourth-fewest), giving up the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs — a bad spot for an inefficient runner losing work in his own backfield.

Heat check 🔥 Given the downward trend in usage for Chubb and the challenging matchup on deck, he’s better left on fantasy benches if you’ve got better options.

WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

You know how there are some franchises that just … have a guy’s number? It feels like we have a large enough sample size watching DK Metcalf go up against the Arizona Cardinals to say there might be some truth to that … and unfortunately for fantasy football managers who are probably in desperate need of a big day from him, he’s got his second matchup of the year against this divisional foe. Metcalf has played 10 games against Arizona in his career and has never once exceeded 59 receiving yards.

On top of his general lack of success against the Cards in his career, Metcalf also enters this matchup a bit banged up, having dealt with a nagging shoulder injury. The Cardinals have been pretty decent against opposing wideouts, too, as of late. Dating back to Week 7, Arizona has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game (22.03) and just a single receiving TD (fewest in the NFL) to opposing wide receivers. The Cardinals’ secondary is allowing the 10th-lowest completion rate on targets to WRs lined up out wide in that span and the fifth-lowest passer rating on such plays.

Heat check 🔥 There aren’t many conceivable situations you’re sitting Metcalf, but realize that this probably isn’t the matchup in which he’ll help you win your week.

WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers

There was no shortage of surprise when Adam Thielen came out in Week 13 to post an 8-99-1 line on 10 targets … especially considering it should have been two scores. Oh, then there was the ridiculous one-handed grab that made him look like primetime Thielen — not a 34-year-old who recently returned from a severe hamstring injury that earned him a seven-game stint on IR.

Unfortunately, there’s some reason to believe Thielen might not keep the ball rolling, as he will be tasked with facing Philadelphia Eagles rookie slot corner Cooper DeJean this week. Since taking over the starting role in Week 6, the rook has been unstoppable. He’s allowed just 6.9 yards per reception since then, including five pass breakups, tied to lead all cornerbacks with 27 total tackles while leading the pack in defensive stops (14) per PFF.

Heat check 🔥 Given that you’ve been without Thielen for a good part of the 2024 season, it’s (hopefully) unlikely that you won’t be able to find some other options.

TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

When it rains, it pours — especially if you’re the Jacksonville Jaguars. Over the past month, the Jags have lost two of their three starting WRs to season-ending injuries (Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis) and now will likely be without QB Trevor Lawrence rest-of-season, who has been placed on IR and is expected to undergo shoulder surgery in the coming weeks. That means it’s Mac Jones time … unfortunately for our fantasy rosters.

In Week 14, the Jags will travel to face the Tennessee Titans — a quietly challenging matchup for opposing TEs this year. Tennessee is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to TEs this year, including the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position while tied for the third-lowest YPR (8.7) given up despite having faced several quality tight ends this year. Their biggest game allowed this season was back in Week 18 (13.8 points to Sam LaPorta on a 6-48-1 line), having allowed an opposing TE to exceed 50+ receiving yards just once all season. Engram should still see target volume given the injuries in the offense, but Mac Jones under center is a clear downgrade for all of Jacksonville’s pass catchers.

Heat check 🔥 The TE position is already a volatile one. Unless you’re stacked at the position with another option like Brock Bowers, you’re probably still looking to start Engram, just with the awareness that his ceiling is not as high with Jones under center, and it’s not the best matchup.