Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for Week 14 of 2024 season

I had a choice to make.

If you’ve read this column for any length of time you are likely very aware that I have five kids and among them are two twin daughters, both of whom just turned 13. If you follow me on Instagram, you are potentially aware that the girls both do competitive cheer. And if you watch or listen to my daily show/podcast, “Fantasy Football Happy Hour,” on Peacock and YouTube or “Fantasy Football Pregame” on Sunday mornings (also on Peacock and YouTube) you know their team qualified for Nationals this week. I am currently writing this from a random hotel somewhere in Orlando.

And that’s why I had a choice to make.

In a normal week, by the time I get to Wednesday night, the heavy lifting is done. The research has been done, the players have been decided upon, and usually one part of the writing is finished — either a good chunk of the players or the opening story. I then grab a pizza, lock myself in a room and spend the rest of the night finishing it, usually getting to bed by 3 or 4 a.m.

This week, however, with the travel and prep of getting the girls and my wife to Orlando, well, was obviously different. I did some work on the plane ride down here, and more on Wednesday during the day, but as we approached early evening, it was clear a choice needed to be made.

The competition starts Thursday, but as part of the almost weeklong event, there was an opening kickoff party Wednesday celebrating all the young women competing at Universal Studios’ Islands of Adventure.

And as I munched on a slice at the team’s pizza party and my wife was going over the timing and logistics of the evening and the week, I realized something.

My plan had been to write this week’s opening about the girls and, of course, I want that to be as good as it can be. So, that would take time.

And that brings me to the choice I had to make.

If an opening story was going get done this week, it was only going to happen Wednesday night.

So, that was my choice. I could stay in my hotel room and write the opening story.

Or I could blow it off and go to Universal Studios Islands of Adventure with my wife, kids, and the rest of team, kids, and parents alike.

I’ve written before about “doing an open or not” and generally speaking, the research showed that people really like the opening story but even if it wasn’t there, they’d read the article.

Well, this is gonna be one of those weeks.

Younger Matthew would have blown off the event and written all night. Younger Matthew was a moron.

I’ll have more time to do this story right next week, but what I won’t have — won’t ever have — is more time with my kids. And there’s probably a column in that, too, but we’re not going there in this column either.

It’s late Wednesday night, so the only thing I’m gonna leave you with is the fact that we had a great time. Really incredible. Brooke’s favorite ride was The Incredible Hulk Coaster, while Samantha can’t stop talking about the Jurassic World VelociCoaster. Personally, my wife and I’s faves were all the Harry Potter rides, especially Hagrid’s Magical Creatures Motorbike Adventure.

But the whole park is terrific and highly recommended. Either way, that’s why you aren’t getting an opening story this week. I’ll be back on Sunday morning for “Fantasy Football Pregame,” airing 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube channel, but until then, I’m gonna go be a Cheer Dad.

It’s Week 14. Win or go home for many. May the fantasy gods be forever in your favor.

Let’s get to it. As always, thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go.

Quarterbacks I Love in Week 14

Joe Burrow at Dallas

Not to be negative but it doesn’t seem like Cincinnati’s late season run to squeak into the playoffs is going to happen. And it’s all because of the atrocious Bengals defense that has given up more points this season than any team outside of the Carolina Panthers. But the silver lining to that atrocious Bengals defense is that they force Joe Burrow to put up a ton of points each week just to stay in games. (Thanks for your fantasy service, atrocious Bengals defense!) Over his past four games, Burrow is averaging 27.8 FPPG and now he faces a Cowboys defense that since Week 6 is allowing the third-most PPG to quarterbacks at 22.2 per game. Dallas also ranks dead-last in red zone defense this season, while Burrow leads the NFL in red zone pass attempts. So, it’s no surprise that the Bengals have the second-highest implied team total this week. Or that I have Burrow ranked as my QB3 for the week.

Sam Darnold vs. Atlanta

Since Week 5, Atlanta is allowing touchdown passes at the third-highest rate, and they’ve also given up 20-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in four of its past five games. So yeah, it’s not all Kirk Cousins’ fault that Atlanta is free-falling all the way down to … tied for first place in the division? Bless your heart, NFC South. Anyway, I like this Falcons matchup for Sam Darnold — especially at home. Not counting Minnesota’s “home” game in the eastern Minneapolis suburb of London, England, Darnold is averaging 19.6 FPPG at home this season. He also has nine games this season with two or more touchdown passes, which is tied for most in the NFL. Do you think Kevin O’Connell wants Darnold to put up massive numbers to show up Kirk Cousins who bailed on him? Me too. I have Darnold as QB4 in Week 14.

Tua Tagovailoa vs. New York Jets

Since returning to action in Week 8, Tua Tagovailoa ranks fourth in pass attempts per game (36.0) and – during that stretch – 74% of Miami’s yards have come via the pass. That’s the fifth-highest rate over that period. Meanwhile, since Robert Saleh was fired (which feels like 300 years ago in Jets time, but was somehow just two months ago), the Jets are allowing 21.4 FPPG to quarterbacks and the sixth-most yards per pass attempt. Add to it that the Dolphins have an implied team total over 25 points this week, and there’s a lot to like about this matchup for Tua. He’s a top 10 quarterback for me.

Others receiving votes: Dating back to Week 8, Las Vegas is allowing a league-high 2.6 touchdown passes per game and the fourth-most fantasy PPG to opposing quarterbacks. This week they will be opposing one Baker Mayfield, whose Buccaneers have a top five implied team total in Week 14. … I’ll be watching Steelers-Browns primarily to see if Jameis Winston’s pick-six prayers are answered, but the Browns’ defense should do some praying, too. Cleveland has allowed a league-high 13 yards per completion this season, and the fifth-most yards per game on deep passes. That sets up as a good matchup for Russell Wilson, who leads the NFL in completion percentage on deep passes since becoming the starter. … Since returning from injury four games ago, Will Levis has thrown for multiple touchdown passes three times. Now, he gets a Jaguars defense that has given up 18-plus fantasy points to a quarterback in eight of their 12 games.

Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 14

Kirk Cousins at Minnesota

Riding a three-game losing streak is probably not how Kirk Cousins pictured his return to Minnesota. He probably pictured himself riding on a plane. Or in a car. Or maybe on a snowmobile. That would be fun. But regardless of what Cousins rides to Minnesota, he probably won’t like what he finds waiting for him there in the Vikings defense. Minnesota has the highest blitz rate in the league, while Cousins ranks 25th in passer rating when pressured (5 TD, 8 INT). The Vikings also play zone coverage at the second-highest rate (79%) and Cousins leads the league with 11 picks thrown against zone coverage. He’s also 18th in yards per attempt versus zone coverage. I have Cousins outside my zone of startable quarterbacks in standard leagues this week at QB19.

Aaron Rodgers at Miami

This week Netflix released the trailer for its Aaron Rodgers documentary set to come out December 17, and I honestly can’t imagine worse timing for a self-mythologizing Rodgers documentary to hit the market. I mean … 12 days after I put Rodgers on my Week 14 Hate List, Netflix thinks people will click on that? “No!,” America will say. “Rodgers is a Hate! I will instead watch ‘Is It Cake?’ holiday edition!” At least that’s what I imagined while getting high on ayahuasca. And apologies to Netflix, but Rodgers is a Hate this week for very good reasons. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging a league-low 5.4 yards per pass attempt, which is worse than Cooper Rush, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young (none of whom, to my knowledge, have Netflix documentaries). The Dolphins are also very good at home against opposing quarterbacks, giving up an average of just 12.9 FPPG to QBs when playing at Hard Rock Stadium. The Jets have the fifth-lowest implied team total this week, too. I have Rodgers outside my top 20 at the position this week. That is definitely not cake.

Running Backs I Love in Week 14

Alvin Kamara at New York Giants

At the Islands of Adventure, there’s a ride called Skull Island: Reign of Kong. In it, there is a terrifying giant ape. But that is make-believe. We don’t live in the land of make-believe. We live in a land of Giants that allow 5.0 YPC to running backs. Gentle Giants. Giants so gentle that, over the past four weeks, they are allowing the second-most PPG to running backs and have surrendered 20-plus points to a back in every game during that stretch. I think Alvin Kamara will have a field day against these gentlest of Giants. Kamara, by the way, is averaging 26 touches and a 22.5% target share over his last four games. He’s my RB2 for the week. Enjoy riding MetLife Island: Reign of Kamara.

Josh Jacobs at Detroit

Matt LaFleur referred to Josh Jacobs this week as a “coach’s dream.” And LaFleur is a guy who narrowly avoided having to coach a 40-something Aaron Rodgers, so imagine how amazing Jacobs must be to beat out that dream scenario of not having to deal with Rodgers. Jacobs has also been a fantasy manager’s dream this season, posting 20-plus fantasy points in five of his past six games. Over that same stretch, he has averaged 22.4 touches per game and Green Bay has the league’s second-highest rush rate, coming in just a few tush-pushes behind the Eagles. Jacobs also leads all players in goal-line rushes over that span and is second in red zone rushes. There’s every reason to think Jacobs will keep it going this week against a Lions team that could be missing three of their defensive linemen to injury. He’s RB8 this week.

Tony Pollard vs. Jacksonville

Tony Pollard is Reason No. 5,235,114 that fantasy football is wonderful. Not Tony Pollard specifically, per se. But the fact that anyone cares about a Titans-Jaguars game in early December when the teams are a combined 14 games under .500 and quarterbacked by Will Levis and Mac Jones. That’s almost entirely because of fantasy football and sports betting. Instead of complaining about an awful Jaguars team, fantasy football managers can celebrate that Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 100-plus scrimmage yards to a back in five straight games. They can celebrate that the Jaguars, during that same stretch, have given up a league-high 31.0 PPG to the position. They can celebrate that Jacksonville allows the second-most receiving yards per game to backs because that means Tony Pollard is in line for a productive day. Pollard ranks fifth among RBs in target share and, even with Tyjae Spears back last week, Pollard still handled 92% of Tennessee’s running back touches. Thank you, Jaguars. And thank you, Titans. I’m not saying I’ll actually watch all of your game … I don’t hate myself that much … but I will definitely take several looks at your box score on my phone. Pollard is my RB10 in Week 14.

Others receiving votes: It took a bit, but the Cowboys finally realized it’s not 2019 and have fully moved on from Ezekiel Elliott to Rico Dowdle. Over his past two games, Dowdle has 85% of Dallas’ RB touches for 47 touches overall. I like that kind of workload against a Bengals team that, over the past four weeks, has allowed the fifth-most fantasy PPG to running backs. … From available in most every league, to the No. 1 pickup for Week 14 on the waiver wire, to immediately making the Others Receiving Votes category in Love/Hate, the Isaac Guerendo tale is the rags to riches story of our time. At least that’s what I’ve been telling studios I’ve shown my movie script to. (So far, they disagree. And are very rude about it.) But look, Guerendo isn’t just an injury fill-in you hope will be productive in a running back-friendly offense. He actually has been productive already in his limited chances this season. He’s averaging 5.9 YPC and 14.5 FPPG in his two games with 10-plus touches. Guerendo also has a great matchup this week against a Bears defense that allows 128 rushing yards per game and 4.8 YPC to backs. … In his return to action last week, Isiah Pacheco only got eight touches and a snap rate of 33%. Those should both rise this week. As should his production against a Chargers team that, over the past four weeks, ranks bottom 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to running backs.

Running Backs I Hate in Week 14

Chuba Hubbard at Philadelphia

Okay, I know I said on “Fantasy Football Happy Hour” this week that I was, reluctantly, “Keeping it open” on Chuba Hubbard this week. And yea, I stand by that. We got six teams on bye this week, so I just can’t imagine you have better options than him. So, you’re likely starting him as a shaky, cross-your-fingers-and hope FLEX. But “Love/Hate” is not a start/sit column. It’s about expectations. And you can’t tell me Chuba Hubbard doesn’t have lowered expectations this week. Jonathan Brooks, who Carolina took with a second-round draft pick this year, has been active for the last two games and Hubbard’s RB touch share plummeted from 89% in Week 12 to 57% in Week 11. Last week, Brooks also got both of the Panthers’ goal-line rushes and 100% of their RB targets. That’s not exactly an ideal trend for all the managers who have been winning off Hubbard’s career season. And really, even with a full workload I would be down on Hubbard this week. Philadelphia allows the fifth-fewest PPG to running backs this season and, since Week 4, Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams are the only two backs to rush for more than 63 yards on the Eagles.

Rachaad White vs. Las Vegas

While I wait to hear back from movie studios on my Isaac Guerendo biopic, I am also working on a treatment for a “Breaking Bad” spin-off series. Only instead of the main character being Walter White, it’s Rachaad White. And it’s called “Breaking Bad (At Fantasy Football).” I know. It sounds incredible. Because it is. Anyway, it’s all about how White has just 33% of Tampa Bay’s RB touches since its Week 11 bye, and that he’s seen just two targets in the passing game over that stretch compared to nine for Bucky Irving. Oh, and in the dramatic final episode, White is defeated by a Raiders defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy PPG to running backs over the past four weeks.

Gus Edwards at Kansas City

Gus Edwards was not the beneficiary of J.K. Dobbins’ absence last week. In fact, he got just 55% of the Chargers’ backfield rushes. That kind of workload likely won’t produce much against a Kansas City defense allowing a league-low 57 rushing yards per game and 3.3 YPC to running backs. And don’t forget: Edwards has a target share below 2% this season and a route participation rate of just 18%. In a game in which the Chargers are four-point underdogs, Edwards is not going to be used in the passing game. I mean, if he matches his receptions for the entire season in this one game, he will get … two. I have Edwards down at RB29.

Pass Catchers I Love in Week 14

Malik Nabers vs. New Orleans

Malik Nabers is on pace to break Puka Nacua’s record for most receptions in a season by a rookie … and also land second on that list all-time behind fellow rookie Brock Bowers. Classic Giants. They even manage to lose when they do something right. But the Giants definitely know what they have in Nabers. Since Week 2, his target share is 39% and he only has one game under 30% over that stretch. Now, I’m not saying he will break Nacua’s record in this game. I don’t quite see 31 receptions for him on Sunday. But he might get closer than you’d think against a Saints defense that, over the past four weeks, is allowing the most fantasy PPG to wide receivers. The Saints have also given up 17-plus PPG to a WR in every game during that stretch. Give me Nabers as a top 10 WR this week.

Drake London at Minnesota

In the off chance the Falcons do make the change to Michael Penix Jr. this season, I’m fairly certain the rookie won’t have trouble grasping the playbook. It’s fairly simple. For example, upon entering the red zone, the Falcons run a play called “Throw it to Drake London.” At least that’s my guess. Because London has 49% of Atlanta’s red zone targets this season. That’s tops in the league. In fact, no other player is even above 40%. And really, a lot of Atlanta’s pass plays are “Throw it to Drake London.” Over the last three games, he has a 35% target share. (Wide receivers who have seen a target share of 25% or more versus the Vikings this season are averaging 19.4 PPG.) By the way, 50% of London’s targets over that three-game stretch have come in the slot. That’s significant heading into a matchup with the Vikings. Get this: Minnesota is allowing the third-most receptions per game and fifth-most yards per game to the slot. London is also WR9 this week.

Mike Evans vs. Las Vegas

Since returning from his hamstring injury two weeks ago, Mike Evans has a 28% target share and is fourth among wide receivers in yards per route run. So, his hamstring is clearly healthy. However, he did miss practice this week with a calf. (To be clear: Evans has an apparent calf injury. He did not decide to take a day off and spend it with a young cow.) But assuming Evans was just taking a rest day, I love him facing this Raiders defense. Over the last four weeks, the Raiders are allowing the fifth-most PPG to wide receivers, and Vegas has allowed at least one touchdown to a WR in each of its past five games. Evans, by the way, is tied for the league lead in end zone targets this season despite missing time. I have him at WR12 this week.

George Kittle vs. Chicago

Christian McCaffrey’s injury-plagued season has not been kind to those who drafted him 1.1. But CMC’s injury has been like a painful little turbo boost of fantasy points for everyone who drafted George Kittle. Get this: In the seven games Kittle has played this season without McCaffrey in the lineup, he is averaging 18.0 PPG. That would make him TE1 in PPG on the season ahead of Brock Bowers. Kittle also has six touchdowns and a 24% target share in those McCaff-free games. Now, with CMC on the shelf again, Kittle gets a favorable matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed 15-plus fantasy points this season to Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, and Evan Engram.

Others receiving votes: Kansas City allows the most receptions and the second-most receiving yards to the slot. Now they will face the extremely slotty Ladd McConkey, who, assuming he plays, saw a 50% target share last week and accounted for 78% of LAC’s receiving yards. … The Jaguars allow the most yards per game to perimeter wide receivers and the most yards per game on deep passes. That’s a great matchup for Calvin Ridley, who will also likely be playing with a little extra revenge game motivation. … On the other sideline, give me some Brian Thomas, Jr. in this game. He’ll be facing a depleted Tennessee secondary that has seen both L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie head to IR. The Titans have also given up 15-plus fantasy points to a WR in three straight games. … Since Chicago’s change at offensive coordinator three games ago, Keenan Allen has a 27% target share and is averaging 18.7 PPG. The Bears also rank seventh in red zone pass rate during that stretch. And hey, if firing coaches helps the Bears’ offense, they’re going to get even better this week. … So, Marquez Valdes-Scantling didn’t really pan out with the Packers. Or the Chiefs. Or the Bills. But what about this Saints version of Valdes-Scantling? There might be something there. Not only does he have four touchdowns in four games, but he also has an insane 22.8 aDOT and has seen 55% of his targets on deep passes. This week he faces a Giants defense that allows the highest completion percentage on passes of 20-plus air yards. … Over the past four weeks, Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 21.6 PPG to tight ends. The Bengals have also allowed a touchdown to a TE in every game during that stretch. So yeah, it’s a good matchup this week for Jake Ferguson. … Kansas City gives up the most receptions per game to tight ends and the most yards per game to tight ends. It’s very kind of them. They want everyone to have their own Travis Kelce. So, give me some Will Dissly this week against the Chiefs. In the eight games since LAC’s bye, Dissly has an 18% target share.

Pass Catchers I Hate in week 14

DK Metcalf at Arizona

The wide receiver position has been a big disappointment in fantasy this season and the Arizona Cardinals are one of the main culprits. The Cardinals give up the third-fewest yards per game on deep passes. Even worse, the Cardinals have allowed only one touchdown to a wide receiver since Week 7. One! That’s nearly two months. And over that same stretch, the Cardinals are allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy PPG to wide receivers. In short, the Cardinals are jerks. And while I’d love to see DK Metcalf teach them a lesson and have a huge day, Metcalf has four receptions or fewer in five of his past six games. He’s outside my top 15 at the position this week.

Adam Thielen at Philadelphia

Thielen had his best game of the season last week against the Bucs, putting up an 8-99-1 line on 10 targets for 23.9 fantasy points. This week will be very different against the Eagles. Since Philadelphia’s Week 5 bye, the Eagles are allowing the fewest fantasy PPG to wide receivers. Over that same stretch, they are also allowing the fewest yards per game to the slot. In fact, the only player to score a touchdown from the slot against Philadelphia during that time was my little Cooper Kupp. But hey, even if Thielen puts up 0 fantasy points this week, averaging 11.95 FPPG for Weeks 13 and 14 isn’t bad, right? Thielen is outside my top 40 WRs this week.

Dalton Kincaid at Los Angeles Rams

A total of 37 tight ends have seen 30-plus targets this season. Of that group, Kincaid ranks 33rd in yards per target. Ooof. Kincaid has also finished as a top 12 TE just three times this season. And now he gets a Rams defense that, since Week 3, has seen only three tight ends go for more than 45 receiving yards against them. Look, I don’t understand why Bills fans would jump through a flaming table, but I do understand why Dalton Kincaid managers might have the urge to be destructive. Kincaid is outside my top 10 tight ends this week.