Keys to a fantasy football victory in Week 14

Dominate in Week 14 with Sal Vetri’s keys to a fantasy football victory.

Pick-up-and-play: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. JAX

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is coming off his best game of the season in Week 13, catching three of his eight targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns. This was his second top-10 finish at the position in the past three weeks. Westbrook-Ikhine has now scored eight touchdowns in his last eight games. It’s unlikely he continues to score a touchdown on 29% of his receptions this year (five times more than the league average) but he may not have to based on his recent usage.

Westbrook is coming off a season-high eight targets. He’s now earned at least 20% of the Titans’ targets in four of his last five games. During this stretch of five games, he’s been able to produce top-24 numbers in four starts. With six teams on bye, Westbrook is a pickup-and-play option this week. He’ll take on the Jaguars who allow the most receiving yards per game and second most receiving touchdowns this season.

Sketchy spot of the week: Nick Chubb vs. PIT

Chubb is coming off a quietly concerning game. In Week 13, Chubb caught a last-second receiving touchdown to save his fantasy day and post 11.5 points. But overall, this was a poor showing from Chubb. He turned nine carries into just 21 yards and even lost playing time to Jerome Ford in this game who was two times more efficient with his carries. Chubb is now averaging just three yards per attempt this season, ranking 71st among all RBs. He has just one run of 10+ yards and has yet to top 60 total yards in any of his six starts.

It won’t get easier for Chubb this week as he takes on the Steelers’ fourth-ranked run defense. Pittsburgh allows just 90 total rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Chubb was able to produce 18.5 fantasy points in Week 12 against Pittsburgh, but this was mostly due to two goal-line touchdowns in a bad weather game. He only managed to average 2.9 yards per carry against the Steelers earlier this year. Chubb is worth benching this week, assuming you have viable replacements.

Best spot of the week: Jakobi Meyers @ TB

Meyers is coming off his fourth top-20 finish in his last five games. In Week 13 against the Chiefs, Meyers earned 11 targets which resulted in a strong 97 yards on six catches. Since the Raiders changed play-callers heading into their Week 10 bye, Meyers has earned a 25% target share (10.7 targets per game). This usage ranks top 10 among all receivers in the past month.

Despite Aidan O’Connell taking over at QB in Week 13, Meyers was still able to produce at a high level. Dating back to last season, Meyers has now played eight games with O’Connell under center and he averages over 13 fantasy points in these contests.

This week Meyers gets one of the best matchups you can find for a fantasy receiver. He’ll take on the Bucs who allow the third-most receiving yards per game and sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. Last week, Tampa allowed 99 yards and a touchdown to 34-year-old Adam Thielen. Expect another strong showing from Meyers this week.

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Sleeper of the week: Zach Charbonnet @ AZ

On a week with six teams on bye we may have to dig deep to find some players to start in Week 14. Enter Charbonnet, who, despite being the RB2 on his own team, has some real standalone value. We saw this last week when Charbonnet totaled 41 yards and a touchdown on six touches. His snaps have increased in four straight games, and he’s even taking work away from Kenneth Walker III in key situations. In Week 13, the Seahawks subbed out Walker after he lost seven yards on a red-zone carry and brought in Charbonnet who would go on to score the game-winning eight-yard touchdown.

Charbonnet remains the backup to Walker, but he’s a versatile back who can catch passes and operate in the red zone. This week he faces the Cardinals’ 21st-ranked tackling defense. Charbonnet is a top-three insurance option for the fantasy playoffs but he’s also someone you can start if you’re in a bind this week.

Bounce back of the week: Jauan Jennings vs. CHI

Jennings has been quiet the past two weeks after being one of the hottest topics in fantasy at the beginning of November. But this needs more context because it’s hard to blame this two-game slump on Jennings. Last week he played in a bad weather blizzard in Buffalo. Despite this, he still managed to lead the team with 56 receiving yards; no other player on the 49ers topped 20 yards and Jennings’ 56 yards made up 60% of Brock Purdy’s passing production.

A week prior against the Packers, Jennings operated with Brandon Allen as his QB. This was an unideal situation, but Jennings was still able to earn a team-high seven targets and produce five catches for 40 yards despite playing with a QB who completed just 58% of his passes.

But now we enter Week 14 and Jennings gets good weather conditions and a healthy Purdy back under center. This is enough for me to go back to Jennings as a start in fantasy. He still leads the 49ers since their bye week with a massive 32% target share which is more than double George Kittle and 10% higher than Deebo Samuel’s usage during this time. Jennings remains the No. 1 receiver on the 49ers; make sure he’s in your lineups this week.

Must-start of the week: Rico Dowdle vs. CIN

Dowdle is finally earning a serious workload in Dallas. Over the past two games, he’s averaged 22 touches and over 100 total yards. In Week 13, Dowdle produced the first 100-yard rushing game of his career on Thanksgiving against the Giants with four runs of 10+ yards according to PFF, which was the most he’s had in a game this season. Dowdle earned 96 yards after contact in Week 13, another career high.

He’s trending in the right direction as we approach the fantasy playoffs. Dowdle was able to take advantage of a strong matchup last week and he’ll get another great spot this week. Dowdle and the Cowboys will face the Bengals on Monday Night Football. Cincinnati’s defensive line has been suspect all season and this continued last week against the Steelers. Najee Harris totaled 129 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 13. Expect Dowdle to have another solid day; he’s a must-start this week with six teams on bye.

Trending up: Jonathon Brooks

Brooks suited up for the second time this season in Week 13 and his usage improved dramatically. In his first appearance back in Week 12, Brooks played just 9% of the Panthers snaps and only saw 11% of the team’s rush attempts. But in Week 13 against the Bucs, his usage increased to 21% of the snaps and his rush attempts tripled to 33% of the team’s carries. Neither Brooks nor Hubbard did much on the ground in this game, but Brooks did look healthy as a runner and pass-catcher.

Brooks caught all three of his targets, including his first reception which went for an explosive play of 15+ yards where he made two different defenders miss in open space. If this usage trend continues, Brooks will become a weekly FLEX option as the fantasy playoffs approach and the Panthers have a great fantasy postseason schedule for their RBs. They’ll face the Cowboys, Bucs and Cardinals who all rank in the bottom half of the league in run defense. Brooks is trending up and you can FLEX him this week if you’re in a bye-week bind.

A backfield to watch: Kansas City

Isiah Pacheco returned for the Chiefs in Week 13 against the Raiders. We were told Pacheco would have no limitations entering this Black Friday matchup, but it was hard to actually believe this would be the case. The Chiefs were 13-point favorites against a poor Raiders team. It was unlikely Pacheco would see a full workload.

In his first game since Week 2, Pacheco played 33% of the Chiefs snaps and handled 47% of the backfield carries. Pacheco turned this usage into eight touches for 49 yards. His 6.1 yards per touch delivered greater efficiency than Kareem Hunt has shown in eight of his nine games this season. In Week 13, Hunt saw his worst usage of the year, playing just 40% of the snaps and turning nine touches into 15 total yards.

Pacheco had an explosive run of 34 yards in this game which was twice as long as any run Hunt has had this season. Expect Pacheco to be ramped up in the next one to two games and for Hunt’s role to reduce even more. If you’re in a bind this week, you can drop Hunt for someone you can actually start in Week 14.