Alabama vs. Michigan prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, best bets, and recent stats

Michigan (7-5) is not the juggernaut of a program who ran through their schedule undefeated enroute to a national championship last year, as their 90th ranked SP+ offense has dramatically reduced their ability to keep pace with the rest of the expanded Big Ten. UM went 4-2 through the first half of the schedule, but then dropped 3-of-4 to @Illinois (21-7), Oregon (38-17) and @Indiana (20-15), before scorching Northwestern 50-6. However, the 5-loss season was all but forgotten by the Michigan faithful when they went into the Horseshoe and planted big “M” on midfield after a thrilling 13-10 victory over the Buckeyes. The Wolverines finally settled on former walk-on QB Davis Warren who emerged from an early-season three-QB rotation to win the job. UM ranks second-to-last nationally (134th) in passing explosiveness and plays at the 131^st slowest pace in the country. Their run defense is stout ranking 16th in success rate allowed, while UM’s secondary ranks 15th in pass explosiveness but is allowing a 61.1% completion rate (74th) and is a few notches down from their dominant 2023 version.

Despite losing to Tennessee 24-17 and getting upset by Vanderbilt 40-35 despite a 99% post-game win expectancy, Alabama (9-3) was still in control of their own destiny to make the CFP Playoff heading into their Week 13 tilt with Oklahoma (6-7). However, the Tide and QB Jalen Milroe got smothered by the Sooners’ defense, completing 11-of-27 passes with three interceptions in the humiliating 24-3 blowout loss which ultimately sunk their playoff hopes and landed Bama in this SEC vs. B10 Blue Blood showdown with the Wolverines. The Crimson Tide have been explosive on offense once again, ranking 5th in 20+ yard play rate (9.1%) and 13th in marginal explosiveness, with the passing game leading the way courtesy of a 49% pass success rate (11th). Defensively they rank 9th nationally and rank 10th in EPA/dropback. However, the Bama pass rush is a shell of their former selves, ranking 84th in sacks per dropback (5.2%) and 66th with a 35% pressure rate.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

Game Details and How to watch the 2024 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Alabama vs. Michigan

· Date: Saturday, December 31st, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Raymond James Stadium
· City: Tampa, FL
· TV/Streaming: ESPN

Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for 2024 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Alabama vs. Michigan

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

• Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (-500), Michigan Wolverines (+375)

• Spread: Crimson Tide (-13.5)

• Over/Under: 43.5 points

We got an Alabama -11.5/-395 opening line which has now bumped up to -13.5 with a -600 moneyline in some spots and is inching closer to the key number of -14. The total on the other hand, has held steady at 43.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Michigan is dealing with a slew of impact opt outs, including their two-star DTs Graham & Grant, CB Will Johnson (Inj.), LT Myles Hinton and both RBs Kalel Mullings/Donovan Edwards. I cannot help but think that the Ohio State game was Michigan’s icing on the cake, and I question how much seasoned talent will be on the field for UM. Accordingly, I’m taking Alabama to score OVER 27.5 points.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Quarterback matchup for 2024 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Alabama vs. Michigan

• Michigan: The quarterback three-man-weave between Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle failed in their effort to replicate departed QB JJ McCarthy’s success. Orji was notably behind the others in terms of passing acumen, producing just 148 passing yards on 43 attempts before mercifully being pulled in favor of Indiana transfer Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was barely serviceable before retiring and turning the job back to Warren. Since being reinserted into the starting role against Michigan State in Week 9, Warren has been a steady, if unspectacular, steward of the UM offense completing 63.6% of his passes with a 6-to-9 TD/INT ratio while averaging a mundane 5.7 yards per pass attempt. To his credit, Warren threw 6 interceptions through his first three starts, but since regaining the job in Week 9 he has turned the ball over just three times while fielding a respectable 68th percentile PFF offensive grade on the year.

• Alabama: QB Jalen Milroe took over the Alabama starting quarterback job in 2023 and proceeded to average 10.0 yards per attempt with a 23-to-6 ratio while earning an 88.7 overall grade that ranked 14th nationally. A great deal of Milroe’s value derives from his legs, rushing 313 times for 1,250 yards and 32 touchdowns over the last two years with an 85.3 run grade that ranked 3rd in FBS last year. His passing acumen has lagged a bit this season averaging 9.1 YPA with a 15-to-10 ratio and an 81.2 passing grade that ranks 23rd overall. Milroe made major strides handling the pass rush this season, going from a 31.9 pressure-to-sack rate to a much improved 17.1%.

Alabama vs. Michigan: Betting Trends & Recent Stats

• Davis Warren has not completed a pass for 40+ yards on any of his 202 total passing attempts since the 2023 season, worst among Power Conference quarterbacks

• Michigan are 2-6 (.250) against the spread when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season, 11th-worst in FBS. (Average: .440)

• Michigan’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 5.8% of 293 attempts this season, the 2nd-worst rate among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts this season, 23rd-best among FBS defenses.

• Michigan are 1-4 (.200) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season, 10th-worst among Power Conference teams. (Average: .424)

• Kalel Mullings has rushed for 10 or more yards on just 16 of his 185 carries this season, tied for 4th-worst among Power Conference running backs.

• QB Davis Warren has thrown for first downs on just 23% of his pass attempts with 7-10 yards to go this season, 5th-worst among Power Conference Quarterbacks. Establishing manageable 3rd Down situations will be vital for Michigan.

• Ryan Williams has gained 40+ yards on 7 of his 45 receptions this season, best among Power Conference Skill Players.

• Germie Bernard has gained 20+ yards on 17 of his 46 receptions this season, 4th-best among Power Conference Skill Players.

• Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on just 63-of-436 rushing attempts (14% TFL%) this season, 3rd-worst in the SEC.

• Michigan has gained 1,603 yards on 179 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season, worst among Big Ten skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season, 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

• Jalen Milroe has thrown 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season, most among SEC Quarterbacks

• Alabama has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 3 of 379 attempts this season, 2nd-best in the SEC.

College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Open to Now)

• Texas +1000 to +300

• Ohio State +700 to +375

• Oregon +900 to +400

• Georgia +500 to +550

Highest Ticket%

• Ohio State 12.3%

• Texas 9.7%

• Georgia 9.7%

Highest Handle%

• Ohio State 15.0%

• Georgia 13.6%

• Texas 10.4%

Biggest Liabilities

• Arizona State

• Notre Dame

• Boise State

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)