Among 8 NFL head coaches with new teams, what are odds of someone going one-and-done?

Now that the major points of the offseason have passed, attention has turned to what’s actually possible for the upcoming NFL season. The new crop of NFL head coaches will take the stage soon and there has been tumultuous history with first-year head coaches in recent years.

Seven coaches have been hit with the dreaded one-and-done tag since the 2018 season and the idea of coaches getting canned after one season is not as rare as it used to be. Carolina’s Frank Reich was the last, losing his gig after 11 games in 2023.

Here’s a look at the new head coaches and what might trip them up and have them wind up in the NFL’s saddest fraternity.

(It’s unlikely that any of these guys will be fired, so just humor this).

Look, Commanders fans might not like this thought but this is a volatile situation that Quinn is walking into. As stated in the introduction, it’s unlikely that any of these head coaches get fired during or immediately after Year 1, but there are some things working against Quinn, mainly that he wasn’t the first choice of the new ownership group that recently bought the Commanders. It was incredibly clear that the Commanders were all in on Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson before he decided to stay in Detroit. Quinn may end up being fine in the long run, but a rookie quarterback on a bad team with a shaky offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) isn’t the most stable footing to be on. There’s a lot of room to improve from the Commanders’ 4-13 record from a season ago so Quinn may not have to jump too high to impress people.

The scenario in which Morris gets fired is straightforward: Kirk Cousins has a season so bad the Falcons wind up in the top five of next year’s draft. It’s an unlikely one, but Morris has taken a job that has considerable expectations, even though the Falcons spent the eighth overall draft pick on Michael Penix Jr., a quarterback who isn’t expected to play this year. The Falcons have been a 7-10 team over the past three years and the addition of Cousins is expected to get them back into the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 season. That’s a lot of pressure for a new head coach with team owner Arthur Blank showing he’s running out of patience with the lack of success around the organization.

Mayo probably has one of the smallest risks of being a one-and-done. The only way that this would happen is if the Patriots put together a season on par with what the Panthers did last season. Mayo is going to have a long leash, especially if Drake Maye is the player many think he is.

Speaking of the Panthers! Given the recent turmoil and turnover involving their quarterback and head coach situations during the David Tepper era, nothing is off limits here. However, the Panthers have to choose stability at some point, right? Even if it’s just for the sake of it. They’re locked into Bryce Young for at least the 2024 season, so Canales should have security past this season, even if it is a disaster. Tepper can’t afford to hire another head coach in 2025. Well, he can, but, you know.

Callahan being a one-and-done would be surprising given how the Titans have set themselves up to be competent this offseason. This isn’t a bad team and they’ve attempted to give Will Levis a chance to succeed with moves they’ve made this offseason. Callahan is in the same boat as Mayo where it would take an unforeseen catastrophe of a season for him to lose his job.

Pierce is in a bit of a different spot because he was the interim coach last season for a surge that ended up getting him the full-time job. He actually might be at risk here if the Raiders go on a slide (possible given their quarterback room) and take a few steps back from last year because he has familiarity with the program. He’s taking over in full for the first time, but he’s not new to the Raiders.

The Seahawks would have waited an eternity for Macdonald. He’s impervious to getting fired this season.

The only way Harbaugh loses his job this season is if he scares everyone with his steak and milk habits. He’s going to have an incredibly long leash to get this job done, which makes sense given his strong track record as a head coach.