Betting trend highlights Patriots’ continued offensive ineptitude

Betting trend highlights Patriots’ continued offensive ineptitude originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

If you like points, the New England Patriots’ Week 5 matchup is not for you.

The Patriots, who own the NFL’s worst scoring offense at 13.0 points per game, are hosting the Miami Dolphins, who are down to third-string quarterback Tyler Huntley and have scored 25 points total over their last three games since losing Tua Tagovailoa to injury.

So, it may not surprise you that the over/under for Patriots-Dolphins is set very low. In fact, the 35.5 point total for Sunday is the lowest of any NFL game through five weeks of the season.

Unfortunately for the Patriots, this is familiar territory.

New England also had the NFL’s worst scoring offense last season — tied with the Carolina Panthers at 13.9 points per game — but had a representative defense, meaning it played in a decent amount of low-scoring games.

So, again, it may not surprise you that the Patriots were featured in the game with the lowest projected over/under of the 2023 season — as well as the second lowest. Here’s a look at those contests:

• Week 18: Patriots vs. Jets — 28.5 over/under (Result: Jets 17, Patriots 3)

• Week 14: Patriots at Steelers — 30.5 over/under (Result: Patriots 21, Steelers 18)

To recap: The Patriots played in the two games projected to produce the least points in the 2023 season, and the game projected to produce the least amount of points in 2024 to date.

New England’s defense earns a small share of credit here, but this trend is more about a Patriots offense that’s been inept for at least the last 21 regular-season games. New England was one of just three teams that failed to reach 30 points in a single game last season, in a league where 30 or more points were scored in 123 games combined.

In fact, the Patriots haven’t scored 30 or more points since Week 6 of the 2022 season, a 32-game streak that’s the longest in the NFL.

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There’s plenty of blame to go around when discussing New England’s continued offensive shortcomings, from Bill Belichick’s misses in the NFL Draft to a revolving door of offensive coordinators since Josh McDaniels’ departure to a failure to acquire high-end offensive talent in free agency.

But the harsh reality is that no team in the NFL has scored fewer points than the Patriots since the start of the 2023 season, which explains why they have the league’s second-worst record (5-16) in that span.

It also explains why the calls to start rookie quarterback Drake Maye are growing louder. This team won’t be relevant until it has at least a serviceable offense, and if the unit continues to underperform with Jacoby Brissett under center — the Patriots have scored 16 total points in their last two games — there’s a strong argument to see what the rookie can do, regardless of what the offensive line looks like in front of him.

Patriots-Dolphins is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.