Big Ten Championship prediction: Penn State vs. Oregon – Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, trends, and stats

Despite a rather turbulent opening games against Idaho and Boise State (37-34), Oregon (12-0) made the necessary adjustments that allowed the Ducks to finish the regular season undefeated. The Ducks’ #2 SP+ offense ranks top-10 nationally in success rate, EPA/play and expected turnover margin. In spite of ruthless efficiency metrics, Oregon isn’t quite as explosive as their 2023 version, ranking 86th in passes of 20+ yards (15.1%) and 94th in yards per successful rush (9.0). Defensively their secondary is superb, ranking 5th in pass success rate, but OU has been susceptible on the ground ranking 80th in EPA/rush and 75th in yards per successful rush.

The Nittany Lions (11-1) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a thrilling Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC where PSU posted an 86%-win expectancy. They were so dominant that each of their other 10 victories carried near perfect 94%+ win expectancies, as PSU exhibited a non-Ohio State mastery of their B10 schedule. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 3rd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 8th in marginal efficiency. There are flaws though, with PSU checking in at a dismal 97th in yards per successful play and 85th in explosiveness, showing a reluctance to take chances downfield. The Nittany Lions Defense has been elite once again, ranking 3rd in SP+ and their lockdown defensive backfield allowing just 5.0 yards per dropback. Projected Top 15 2025 NFL Draft selection Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 17th overall with an 8.3% sack rate and 10th with a 40.3% pressure rate.

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Game Details and How to watch the Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs. Oregon

· Date: Saturday, December 7, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Lucas Oil Stadium
· City: Indianapolis, IN
· TV/Streaming: CBS

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Game odds for the Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs. Oregon

The latest odds as of Tuesday morning courtesy of BetMGM:

The spread opened at an even Oregon -3 and toggled between -2.5 and -3.5 before currently reaching a consensus at -3.5 at time of print. The time to be Oregon’s moneyline was at the open, with -148 spiking to a current range of -170 and -180. Conversely PSU dropped at +124 and is now available at a high of +155. We got an initial game total line at 51.5 that has since dipped to 49.5 at most shops.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Wisconsin just took Oregon to the limit in a 16-13 nailbiter, while Penn State escaped with a one-point victory over Minnesota two weeks ago. With these two teams pretty closely matched in my opinion, and PSU very much in play on a neutral site field, I think the value is on Penn State on the moneyline for a tidy +150 return.”

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Penn State and Oregon betting trends & recent stats

• Star Penn State TE Tyler Warren ranks 2nd among Power Four tight ends with 101 targets. TE Oronde Gadsden leads with 103 targets.

• Nicholas Singleton has rushed for 10+ yards on 12 of his 47 carries in the 2nd half this season (25.5%), which ranks 2nd-best among Power Four Running Backs. UCF RB RJ Harvey leads with a 27.4% 10+ yard rush rate.

• Penn State has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 35 carries in the Red Zone this season– best in the Power Four.

• Drew Allar has completed 71.6% of his passes this season, 5th-best of all qualified quarterbacks. Oregon’s defense has allowed a completion rate of just 55.5% this season, 13th-best among FBS defenses.

• Oregon’s secondary has been at their best when the game is on the line, allowing just 2 first downs on 28 targets in close & late situations, the lowest completion rate allowed among P4 programs.

• Terrance Ferguson has been targeted 15 times in the Red Zone this season, 2nd-most among P4 Tight Ends. Syracuse TE Oronde Gadsden ranks 1st in the P4 with 16 RZ targets.

• QB Dillon Gabriel has completed 76% of passes in close & late situations (19-of-25), the 3rd-highest mark in the P4. Washington QB Will Rogers is #1 completing 17-of-21 passes (81%).

• Oregon is 1-5 (.167) against the spread when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season, tied for 6th-worst in FBS (Average: .440)

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)

• Oregon +400 to +350

• Georgia +400 to +450

• Notre Dame +1400 to +900

• Alabama +4000 to +2200

Highest Ticket%

• Ohio State 13.2%

• Texas 10.9%

• Georgia 10.2%

Highest Handle%

• Ohio State 16.1%

• Georgia 14.3%

• Alabama 11.7%

Biggest Liabilities

• Colorado

• Alabama

• Ohio State

Quarterback matchup for Penn State at Oregon

• Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar sustained a knee injury and was questionable in the leadup to their pivotal Ohio State game, but the grizzled vet managed to gut it out in the 20-13 loss. Despite the slight step back against OSU, Allar ranks 12th nationally with an 87.4 PFF overall grade and is handling the rush expertly, rating 6th in FBS with a 70th% under-pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks 2nd in passing success rate and is achieving first down yardage on 62% of their completions (8th). With Allar entering his third, and potentially final, season in Happy Valley, the time is now for Penn State to challenge for the national championship.

• Oregon: Dillon Gabriel is in the midst of his sixth collegiate campaign, amassing an impressive 18,140 passing yards and 149-to-32 ratio over his illustrious career. He is completing 73.5% of his throws (#2 in FBS) for 8.7 YPA and a 24-to-6 ratio for the still undefeated Ducks, but his 6.9 ADOT is the lowest average target depth among 93 qualifying signal callers. The short-range passing game emphasis accounts for Oregon’s uncharacteristically low 15.1% explosive pass rate that ranks 86th in FBS. Oregon is currently sporting a crisp 73.6% passing completion rate (1st in FBS), and Gabriel will have the benefit of star WR Tez Johnson’s presence in the lineup after he returned to action last Saturday.

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