Connect with us

Sports

Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 12 Fantasy Football

Published

5 hours ago

on

Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 12 Fantasy Football

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 12 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

We are looking at a significant referendum game on Sunday Night Football between two NFC teams, particularly when the Rams have the ball.

The Eagles defense is No. 1 in EPA per play and success rate allowed since they returned from a Week 5 bye week. They’ve received so many excellent performances from young players at all three levels. Linebacker Nakobe Dean has stabilized a long-problematic position on the Eagles defense and has formed a strong tandem with standout Zack Baun. On the front line, Jalen Carter has looked like one of the premier interior rushers in football of late. He single-handily wrecked Washington’s offense last Thursday night.

Even more critical may be the play of two rookies in the secondary. Right corner Quinyon Mitchell has been a premier coverage player on the outside. He’s played lock-down man coverage and rarely gets caught in zone. Mitchell will get a tough challenge in Puka Nacua, whom I think looks like a leveled-up player this year when playing the ball in tight coverage. All the motion the Rams throw at opponents makes it challenging for one player to cover Nacua a majority of his routes. That could make this a bigger challenge for Mitchell than some of the other receivers he’s locked down this season.

Per PFF, Cooper DeJean has taken 277 of 443 snaps this year as the slot corner. It’s hard to say what’s been more impressive about DeJean: his tackling, or coverage from the slot. Both skills will be needed against Cooper Kupp in Week 12. Kupp isn’t the same player from his 2021 season but he still reads zone coverage extremely well and is as reliable as any receiver. The way he works on option routes makes him a chore to cover. DeJean will need to bring his A-game.

For all the good players the Eagles have in coverage and some of the advantages the Rams bring to the table in the receiver room, this game will be won and lost up front. According to Next Gen Stats, Philadelphia has recorded the fourth-fastest average time to pressure (2.56 seconds) this season and has converted 24.8% of their pressures into sacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Rams have allowed pressure in 2.51 seconds on average in 2024, the fastest in the league.

If the Rams can’t block it up, this game could turn troubling quickly. Matthew Stafford’s 54.1 passer rating under pressure is among the lowest in football this season — that’s the same territory as Will Levis and Caleb Willams; not ideal company. If Carter and co. take over the game up front, they can win this game.

On the other side, the Rams defense has stepped up on the front line.

Their young pass rushers make this defense tough to play against and they rank third in rushing success rate allowed since Week 8. Stopping Saquon Barkley will be priority No. 1 and that pass rush has to win early and often. For all the good play up front, the secondary still has its holes. The Rams defense can’t allow A.J. Brown to run loose down the field. If he hits those trademark big plays and the Eagles get ahead on the scoreboard, their pass rush will be in a position to take over the game.

The vaunted Ravens offense stumbled last week against a difficult defense in the Pittsburgh Steelers. They won’t find a soft landing spot in Week 12 with a matchup against the Chargers.

Los Angeles has been one of the most fundamentally sound defenses in the NFL. The Chargers are the fourth-bet run defense this season by rushing EPA allowed but play with some of the lightest boxes among any stop unit. You have to wonder if they change that approach with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson coming to town.

If they don’t bring extra men into the box and stick with their usual defensive approach, the Chargers operate with two-high safeties more than almost any other unit. When Lamar Jackson faces two high defenses, he looks to push the ball downfield. Despite being the vertical X-receiver, Rashod Bateman leads the main pass-catchers with 2.79 yards per route run vs. two-high, per Fantasy Points Data.

The Chargers plan of attack against Baltimore is more straightforward to map. An offense that’s been inclined to chuck it and rip the ball downfield more than almost any other unit in recent weeks should keep it rolling.

The Ravens defense has been bleeding passing production all year and ranks 28th in EPA per dropback allowed. Some of their biggest issues have actually come from former All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith, who is on the injury report this week and hasn’t played well, regardless. Smith has had issues in coverage and communication errors over the middle have haunted this defense.

If the Ravens can’t defend the middle of the field, that’s an issue against the Chargers. Justin Herbert has been ultra-aggressive when ripping it in the intermediate area of the field. His two most consistent pass-catchers are Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly. The big-play slot receiver and tight end run their routes right in the sectors Baltimore has struggled to cover this season.

The Cardinals come off of their bye-week to big expectations. Not only are they the No. 1 team in the NFC West through 11 weeks, but they are the top-ranked offense in EPA per play and success rate since Week 8. This scoring unit has become everything that Cardinals optimists believed they could be.

Arizona has a settled offensive identity. It’s a power-run team that plays an old-school style of football with heavy personnel. I don’t think we’ll see schematic changes post-bye. The two players to watch are the rookie skill-position players and their deployment.

Trey Benson played on 28% and 27% of the snaps in the two weeks before the bye, a marked increase from previous contests. He also touched the ball 21 times and was effective with the ball in his hands. Benson isn’t going to unseat James Conner but adding his explosiveness would be a good change of pace. Impactful touches from Benson would go a long way to establishing his case as one of the top backup running back bench-stashes in fantasy.

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s usage has much more fantasy utility. It’s not a coincidence that Arizona’s ascension to the top of the league charts offensively overlapped with tweaks in Harrison’s deployment.

The passing game is just more dangerous and consistent with Harrison running more of those intermediate routes. Kyler Murray and Harrison have developed strong chemistry on those digs and outs. If Harrison continues to see targets on those routes, he’ll become a more stable weekly bet.

The Seahawks come into this game off a big win over the 49ers. Seattle is now jumbled at 5-5 with San Francisco and Los Angeles in the NFC West, so this is a critical game.

Seattle still feels like a team operating under a first-year coaching staff. We’re seeing tweaks on both sides of the ball as Mike MacDonald and Ryan Grubb try to settle their units.

Offensively, the biggest change in recent weeks has been the role of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Getting a 100-yard performance with DK Metcalf in the lineup was a big deal. JSN’s 9.4 air yards per target wasn’t at the level of his outlier 17.5 from Week 9 but it still marks a change. The targets for JSN felt more intentional than in previous weeks, where he was simply a dump-off option. The second-year receiver worked in combo routes alongside Metcalf — which weaponized both players — and saw a bump in his targets on third down. That’s how you get the most out of this talented receiver.

Most important 49ers storyline: The 49ers offense just lacks teeth. Their success rate and EPA metrics are still high but, without Brandon Aiyuk, peak Deebo Samuel or a fully healthy Christian McCaffrey, this unit doesn’t feel as dangerous as it once did. The plays to Jauan Jennings have been absurdly efficient but even he doesn’t offer verticality. The 49ers have to be a mistake-free, efficiency-based unit more than ever. With Brock Purdy coming into this game with a shoulder injury, that just adds another layer of difficulty to a unit already finding life more challenging than usual.

Most important Packers storyline: Green Bay ranked 27 out of 28 teams in neutral pass rate in Week 11. In conjunction, we saw the big receivers like Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson get a playing time bump. Watson ran a route on 70% of the dropbacks, which was his highest route participation of the season. The second tight end, Blake Sims, also saw the field more than usual. The Packers made a concerted effort to get their heavier personnel on the field and establish the run. It’s worth wondering if this is a one-week blip because of the matchup or a sign of things to come. It worked against Chicago as the Packers had the fourth-best dropback success rate and ninth-best rushing success rate among Week 11 offenses. Green Bay always leans more run-heavy than most think and any greater tilt toward the ground game would make it even more difficult to project their constantly rotating pass-catchers.

This embedded content is not available in your region.

Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Most important Vikings storyline: The Vikings have started to back off Aaron Jones in recent weeks. He started off the season as one of the most effective rushers in the league this September but that’s not been the case of late. Jones played a whopping 92% of the snaps in Week 8 and his touches have gone down every week since. We even saw Cam Akers handle 10 rushes last week. It might not be the worst idea to keep Jones fresh by allowing Akers to take some of the grinder carries off his plate. If Jones can regain some of that explosive ability, he has a nice matchup this week. The Bears rank 23rd in rushing EPA allowed since Week 8 and have been particularly vulnerable off the edge. Jones has long been one of the premier outside runners in the game.

Most important Bears storyline: You never see a playbook get a full overhaul when a team changes coordinators mid-season. You’re too far downstream to install a whole new playbook. However, you can see a new voice added a few wrinkles. Several changes were added to the Bears offensive approach that fit this variety. The first was DJ Moore’s role, which focused more on getting him in space and taking off some of the burden of downfield, low-percentage routes.

Getting the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands was a priority, as was giving him the freedom to take off if routes weren’t open quickly. Williams added 4.63 EPA on scrambles in Week 11, the second-most among quarterbacks. Geno Smith ranked No. 1 and that’s due to running in the game-winning touchdown. We still have a long way to go with the Bears offense approaching full viability but getting Moore involved on YAC-based routes, allowing Williams to be used as a rusher and getting Rome Odunze more first-read targets will help. We saw all three in Week 11.

Most important Lions storyline: Over the last two weeks, Jameson Williams has a mere 17.5% target share but has been earning the high-yield looks. His 18.9 average depth of target is the third-highest among pass-catchers with double-digit targets in that span. Williams is squarely in the role that lifts the roof off of the offense. The Colts’ pass defense plays simple coverages and makes mistakes on the back end. He’s never the safest play on the board but with so many receivers on bye in Week 12, this looks like a spot to chase Williams’ ceiling.

Most important Colts storyline: Week 11 was without a doubt the best game of Anthony Richardson’s career. He was effective as a chain-mover and downfield passer. Josh Downs snaring an early vertical shot from the slot seemed to settle the whole offense and his young quarterback down. Those two guys have an underrated connection and it’s just not been discussed enough how little time they have playing together. The last two games with Richardson starting have been some of Downs’ best as a pro. He’s in line for another big outing in Week 12 against a Lions defense that’s really turned the corner but has a clear interior weakness. Detroit allows the most yards per game to slot receivers this season.

Most important Chiefs storyline: The Chiefs may get Isiah Pacheco back in this game and it’ll be just in time for a matchup with a Panthers’ run defense that’s been among the worst in the NFL. From a success rate standpoint, the Chiefs’ run game has been a top-five attack with Kareem Hunt as the lead back. However, anyone with eyeballs can see Hunt has left a lot of big plays on the table due to a lack of juice. His 1.4% explosive rushing rate is the lowest among backs with 100-plus carries. Pacheco may not be fully healthy in his return to action and it’s a good idea to use Hunt to take some of the grinder carries. That said, Pacheco’s big-play ability will make a difference on just a handful of touches. This offense needs someone to create the explosives they aren’t getting through the air.

Most important Panthers storyline: The Panthers will get two big players back on offense this week. In the passing game, veteran receiver Adam Thielen will get back from a stint on IR. Thielen was starting as the big slot receiver for this team in the last two seasons, but rookie Jalen Coker has given them quality reps in that position. It would be odd for a team in the Panthers’ position to take a developing rookie off the field. Whoever takes the majority of the reps in the slot has a great matchup, as Kansas City allows more production to slot receivers than almost any other defense.

Rookie running back Jonathon Brooks will likely make his season debut. This will be Brooks’ first NFL action, so it would be a huge surprise if he takes a big slice of the pie away from Chuba Hubbard, who has been one of the most efficient backs in the league this season.

Most important Buccaneers storyline: Mike Evans will suit up for the Buccaneers for the first time since Week 8.

That Ravens loss feels like a whole different lifetime for this Bucs team. In the three games since, Cade Otton leads the team with 29 targets; running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are second and third. You just don’t see many offenses that get such little output from the wide receiver position. Otton should be able to remain in his role as the power slot replacement for Chris Godwin. He’s been getting the tight coverage targets over the middle and the screen looks. Evans will immediately walk into a completely vacant role as the top perimeter pass-catcher and vertical threat. He has a chance to be a WR1 in fantasy with Baker Mayfield playing as well as he has this season.

Most important Giants storyline: The Giants will start Tommy DeVito in Week 12, placing Daniel Jones on the bench for the first time this season. DeVito averaged 7.2 yards per attempt throwing outside the numbers in 2023, while Jones has averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt on throws outside the numbers this season. The now-former starter’s 25.8% completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards is the second worst among qualifying quarterbacks, per PFF. Jones just leaves so many open vertical plays on the field. I’m not convinced DeVito will be an upgrade for Malik Nabers, but he’s at least willing to try to push it downfield.

One reason to maybe watch: Beyond any revenge-game narratives, it bears watching Jonnu Smith in this matchup. Many fantasy gamers have been confused as to why the once-heralded Dolphins wide receivers aren’t producing near their assumed standard. Well, a big part of this development is that the Jonnu Smith plays are … really good.

Since Week 8, Smith ranks sixth in team offensive success rate on his targets. Other tight ends in that area are Brock Bowers, George Kittle and Trey McBride. That’s the company Smith is keeping; good things happen when his team throws the ball in his direction. The receivers deserve credit for clearing the space for Smith to run after the catch on those looks and pile up the efficiency. However, the Dolphins don’t have much incentive to change up their volume distribution just for the sake of your fantasy teams, given the effectiveness of the overall unit.

One reason to maybe watch: Jayden Daniels hasn’t just been off his game the last two weeks. Statistically, he’s been one of the most inefficient quarterbacks in the sport. Daniels ranks 24th in adjusted net yards per attempt over the last two weeks among quarterbacks with 20-plus dropbacks. He was third in Weeks 1-9. Most troubling is that Daniels’ pressure-to-sack ratio of 50% is tied with Joe Flacco for the most among quarterbacks. The offensive line hasn’t allowed a ton of pressure but Daniels has just turned almost all of those moments into negative plays. Washington has played two of the better defenses in the league in the last couple of weeks in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Dallas operates on the other end of that spectrum but their pass rush has improved with Micah Parsons back on the field. This is a good moment for Daniels to get his Rookie of the Year campaign back on track if he can withstand the pressure from the Cowboys.

One reason to maybe watch: Nico Collins only ran a route on 55.3% of the team dropbacks, falling in behind both Tank Dell and John Metchie III. Obviously, he is the team’s best receiver and we should expect that number to push toward 80% when he’s fully ramped up. Does that start this week? The Texans need it. The Titans aren’t a great team, but their defense presents some problems, especially in terms of creating interior pressure. Houston has been one of the worst teams in football at picking up blitzes and blocking up stunts. If those issues creep up, C.J. Stroud will need Collins available as the quick answer.

One reason to maybe watch: The Broncos are a good team. The Raiders sink this game into the doldrums of the week. We’re keeping an eye on the weekly Bo Nix ascension.

Nix is executing the Broncos offense. That unit is much better designed than it was to start the season and they have some intriguing pass-catchers. Most of the Broncos wideouts are big-bodied players who can present themselves as reliable targets over the middle. That aligns well with Nix’s skill set and allows Denver to work well against zone coverage. Courtland Sutton is the only fantasy starter of the bunch but the rest of the big receivers help lift the floor of the passing attack. I’ve even enjoyed how Sean Payton has mixed Marvin Mims Jr. into the equation as a gadget receiver and designed rusher. Denver should be able to clear this Raiders team with ease if its claim to the AFC’s playoff push is legitimate.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading