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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 16 Fantasy Football

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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 16 Fantasy Football

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 16 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

The Steelers offense has by and large exceeded expectations with Arthur Smith at the OC gig and Russell Wilson under center. However, their previous matchup with the Ravens didn’t turn into the points-fest many people wanted to see and it was because their style of attack doesn’t necessarily match up with where the Ravens defense is most vulnerable.

On the season, the Ravens defense gives up 83.5 yards per game over the deep and short middle of the field, with 10.2 YPA. The unit overall has been much improved of late. Since Week 10, Baltimore is seventh in dropback success rate allowed. However, you can map some of their strong games defensively based on the teams they’ve played in this stretch (Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Giants) that actually activate the middle of the field. Bengals and Chargers, yes. Eagles and Steelers, not as much. The Giants are … the Giants.

While Wilson has been a nice hit for the Steelers, he still hasn’t consistently worked the intermediate middle of the field. It’s especially tough to imagine that happening without No. 1 receiver, George Pickens this week. Pickens has emerged as a true difference-maker this season and the passing game takes a huge hit without him.

On the Ravens side of things, everything is clicking. Even Rashod Bateman is on a tear with this team and is coming off another massive game against the Giants last week.

However, Bateman popped up with an injury this week. With that in mind, Zay Flowers needs to be a big factor for Baltimore in Week 16.

Typically the pure perimeter X-receivers are the big beneficiaries when an offense faces single-high because they get one-on-one matchups outside. Flowers and the Ravens break that mold. Per Fantasy Points Data, Flowers’ 2.85 yards per route run leads the team by a significant margin when the team faces single-high. He owns a 27.5% target share.

The Ravens love to scheme him open for shots off motion, deep outs or double moves as the flanker when those big windows are open outside. Since he can move to multiple spots, it’s hard to assign that single-high safety over the top of Flowers. The Steelers play more single-high than any other defense in the league.

We get a huge NFC East rematch that will go a long way in deciding the division but also be a proving ground for the ceiling of both teams.

While last week’s passing-game eruption from the Eagles was something we needed to see, I’d argue that we didn’t learn all that much about the team. We know the Eagles can throw all over a defense like Pittsburgh.

For this week, there are some overlaps between the Steelers’ and Commanders’ defense. Washington is ninth in terms of man coverage overall and Pittsburgh is 10th, per Fantasy Points data. That’s a good data point if you’re hunting a huge week for A.J. Brown or looking to start DeVonta Smith.

However, Dan Quinn and his group are much less single-high heavy than the Steelers (67.4%, highest in the league). How Jalen Hurts and co. attack some of those looks where the middle of the field is open will be critical in developing the upside case for this unit.

Washington had a troubling outing in their previous matchup with the Eagles. Their defense shut down Jayden Daniels and co. on offense. This was best expressed in the Quinyon Mitchell vs. Terry McLaurin matchup.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mitchell lined up against McLaurin on 20 of his 25 routes (80.0%), including 19 of 20 when he aligned wide (95.0%), in Week 11. Daniels never threw to McLaurin in Mitchell’s coverage.

A critical change since this matchup is that Kliff Kingsbury is finally moving his No. 1 wide receiver across the formation. It resulted in a big game for McLaurin last week.

The Eagles corners primarily play sides, with Darius Slay taking 93% of his snaps on the defensive left and Mitchell 95% on the defensive right. Moving to the other side more often will give McLaurin reps against Slay, and that’s a much more favorable matchup.

As long as Kingsbury keeps showing us new wrinkles on that side of the ball, McLaurin should be able to enjoy a better outing. After that, it just comes down to winning the line of scrimmage for the Washington offense, which is easier said than done considering Jalen Carter dominated this game last time out.

The Vikings offense has been on fire the last few weeks. They are getting some of the best wide receiver play in the league between Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who has actually been more productive of late.

Addison has the highest yards per route run against zone coverage since Week 12. With so much cloud and Cover 2 on Jefferson’s side, Addison has shredded single-coverage situations. He’s really stepped up as a contested-catch wideout this season. To this point, I haven’t really considered him in that “1B receiver” tier with the DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins types, but I may need to reconsider that. The Seahawks defense has been improved over the second half of the season but still struggles at outside corner. Those guys give up big plays and play grabby in coverage, leading to penalties. Addison and Jefferson will be a chore.

However, don’t overlook T.J. Hockenson in this matchup. The tight end has averaged over 5.5 yards per route run vs. man coverage since Week 12, easily leading the team. He’s been a key chain-mover on late downs. The Seahawks play man coverage at the highest rate on third and fourth down.

Seattle looks like it’ll have Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker back for this game. The former is obviously huge. Seattle will still be at a disadvantage facing this pass rush behind its leaky offensive line. However, Smith is a much better sack-avoider than Sam Howell, who posted a 22% sack rate in limited action last week.

Look for Smith to rely heavily on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this game. Per Fantasy Points Data, when Seattle has faced two-high coverage since Week 10 — Minnesota has been among the most two-high-heavy defenses this season — JSN paces the team with a 3.2 yards per route run, while DK Metcalf sits just above 1.0. It’s not a coverage look that favors deep outside-the-number passes to begin with, and Seattle’s quarterbacks rarely have the time to uncork those throws behind their offensive line.

The return of Walker makes the backfield complicated. Seattle has gotten some of the best rushing performances of the season in the last few games with Zach Charbonnet operating as the feature back. He’s been able to establish a clear rhythm as the top dog. If this backfield is split again, neither back is an easy projection.

Most important Texans storyline: The Chiefs are set to get Hollywood Brown on the field for the first time this season. It also appears likely Patrick Mahomes will play in this game. Their connection will be critical to monitor. While most will be interested in Brown’s role as a speed threat, I’m more curious about his usage in the intermediate area of the field.

Right now, I’d say Xavier Worthy is playing better football the last month or so than he was at the beginning the season. I think you can count on him enough to be the primary lid-lifter while Brown operates on some more base routes. We may not see Brown get fully ramped up until the postseason but how he’s deployed in his first game back will be critical to track.

Most important Chiefs storyline: The Chiefs allow the most yards per game to slot receivers and rank 20th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 10. Unfortunately, the Texans are pretty ill-equipped to take advantage of either weakness that’s cropped up in Kansas City’s stop unit. Houston is the 31st team in rushing success rate in games Joe Mixon plays and doesn’t have a true target-earning slot receiver. The Texans offense will likely continue its limp toward the NFL postseason.

Most important Rams storyline: The Rams are one of the best zone-beating teams in the NFL. All three of their most efficient receivers, Puka Nacua (1st), Tutu Atwell (7th) and Cooper Kupp (15th) have a yards-per-route run rate over 2.0 when they face zone coverage and rank inside the top-15 across the NFL. The story against man coverage is quite a bit different. Nacua has an absurd 4.10 YPRR vs. man coverage on the year, ranking second behind only A.J. Brown. They are the only receivers north of 3.55. They are having unreal elite seasons.

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Kupp ranks 30th and Atwell 43rd out of 102 qualifiers. It’s not like those results are overly poor but it’s clear who the lead man-beater on the team is at this point. The Jets play man coverage on 51.3% of the opponent’s late-down dropbacks this season.

Most important Jets storyline: Aaron Rodgers has played like a top-five quarterback over the last two weeks. His 0.35 EPA per dropback is fourth behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jared Goff. He ranks fifth with 10.3 adjusted yards per attempt while averaging 9.5 air yards per pass (sixth-most). Even as a scrambler, he’s been highly productive and useful for the offense. Rogers is behind only Allen and Jayden Daniels in EPA added on scrambles the last two weeks. This is all too little too late for the Jets but it can create a productive fantasy environment for the skill position players down the stretch against two high-powered offenses in the Rams and Bills the next two weeks.

Most important Cardinals storyline: Trey McBride isn’t just having a record-breaking season in terms of his zero touchdowns relative to 89 receptions, it’s also the most bewildering. Now, let’s compare it to the other two most recent zero-score seasons by high-volume players. Jakobi Meyers saw 81 targets in 2020 and didn’t score a touchdown. While I am and have always been a huge fan of Meyers as an underrated player, at the time he was a second-year UDFA playing in the Cam Newton version of the Patriots offense. The more recent example was Diontae Johnson who saw a whopping 147 targets (86 catches, fewer than McBride) but didn’t find the end zone. While Johnson is a good player he’s a certifiably weird one who was playing in an offense manned by Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky.

By any metric available, McBride is having a wonderful season and is without question a top-five player at his position. He also plays in an offense that, for all the frustrations some of their pass-game players have provided in fantasy football, ranks 10th in EPA per play. He’s also scored a touchdown as a rusher. That’s what makes this all so strange and untenable. Perhaps he breaks the drought through the air in Week 16 against the Panthers.

Most important Panthers storyline: Over the last three weeks, no running back has seen more playing time in his offense than Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers back has taken 90.4% of the team’s snaps in this span and handled 57 opportunities. He certainly didn’t have a big game last week but he’s in an ideal rebound spot in Week 16. The Cardinals defense has been better in the second half of the season but the run-stop unit is still an issue. They rank 31st in rushing success rate allowed since Week 10, ahead of only Hubbard’s own Panthers. We could see plenty of big runs in this contest.

Most important 49ers storyline: Issac Guerendo got some excellent usage in Week 15. Despite some questions about his role coming into the game, he ended up playing 77% of the snaps, while the RB2 on the team only played 3.8%. Even better, he was the only running back on the team to receive a rush attempt. He was also an active participant in the passing game, running a route on 65% of the dropbacks and gathering a 12.9% target share.

Now that he’s not going to play in this game, we have very little indication that the coaching staff is ready to trust Patrick Taylor Jr. with any significant work. Given the way Deebo Samuel Sr. has played this season, especially last week after sounding off on social media regarding his lack of production, it’s unlikely he’s about to get more work from the backfield. The 49ers offense has been suffering all season without their usual production from the run game. It could be even worse than usual in Week 16.

Most important Dolphins storyline: Tua Tagovailoa is coming off one of the worst games of his I can remember. Tua went 3 of 10 for 43 yards, 1 touchdown and three interceptions on passes of 20-plus yards, per Next Gen Stats. The downfield game just hasn’t been there for Miami this season and it was less fruitful than ever in Week 15. On the other side, he is top-five in yards per attempt (7.1) and EPA per dropback (+0.25) on quick passes, per NGS. The 49ers have not given up much production on those quick throws this season. Their defense has started to take on serious water from an injury perspective, so it’s hard to know how instructive that data is at this point of the season. Neither team is going anywhere this year but both offenses will be looking to finish the year on a high note.

Most important Buccaneers storyline: The Cowboys defense was able to put a stop to the recent (relative) hot streak by the Panthers offense and give Bryce Young his worst game in months. It was primarily thanks to a game-wrecking effort from Micah Parsons up front. The Buccaneers offensive line will be tested in Week 16 but this is quietly one of the best units in the league. New figures on this team like Liam Coen and Bucky Irving have gotten the headlines. However, don’t overlook the play of rookie Graham Barton at center as a big reason why this offense has taken a leap. Several young holdovers like Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke have improved this season, as well. Tampa Bay needs this crew to continue their strong play to get through this week.

Most important Cowboys storyline: In Week 15 Rico Dowdle set a career-high in yards from scrimmage for the third straight week. He took 25 carries for 149 rushing yards. Dowdle has just been cranking out successful runs on the vast majority of his carries. He’s been an extremely efficient rusher. Over the last four weeks, Dowdle has handled 85% of the backfield carries and averaged 120 rushing yards per game, second among all backs in this span. There’s no question Dowdle has taken advantage of some great matchups against the Giants, Bengals and Panthers the past three weeks but that’s all we can ask from a rusher; crush the cakewalk spots. It’s not as if he will go against a juggernaut this week, as he draws a Bucs defense that allows the 10th-most rushing yards per carry this season.

One reason to maybe watch: The Falcons had no choice but to bench Kirk Cousins at this stage. It remains to be seen if Michael Penix Jr. will be a tangible upgrade but Cousins was averaging 5.4 adjusted net yards per attempt in games against non-Bucs opponents this season.

At different points this season, I felt that, despite his clear limitations, Cousins would keep the floor afloat for the offense and adding Penix to the mix would create too much volatility. Given how badly Cousins had regressed of late physically on top of the mistakes, that floor had crashed out. Penix may not be ready to access the ceiling of this unit but his getting the start doesn’t change the floor outlook for the pass-catchers. The Giants’ injured defensive line and leaky secondary provide a soft landing spot for his first start.

One reason to maybe watch: Well, we aren’t watching for the Browns offense anymore. Getting Dorian Thompson-Robinson behind center after the understandable benching of Jameis Winston is a huge letdown for fantasy managers exclusively.

On the other side, the Browns play single-high at the second-highest rate among defenses, per Fantasy Points Data. As you’d expect, Ja’Marr Chase is going nuts against single-high with 60% of the team touchdowns and 3.14 yards per route run. However, much of his work has come on big plays in the open field, averaging 7.1 YAC per reception. Tee Higgins has been the shot guy vs. single-high. His 32% first-read target share is not far behind Chase (35%) and he has 400 air yards in nine games, while Chase has 672 in 14 games. Higgins popped up with a late-week injury in Thursday’s practice but if he’s available this week, he’s in a nice spot to rip some big plays.

One reason to maybe watch: The Colts’ passing game continues to be shaky but they’ll operate on the other end of the matchup spectrum after playing in Denver last week. Since Week 10 the Titans’ pass defense has fallen apart. Tennessee ranks 28th in EPA per dropback and 29th in dropback success rate allowed. Here’s how the Colts’ route participation played out in Week 15 with Alec Pierce suffering a midgame concussion: Michael Pittman Jr. at 97.7%, Josh Downs 86%, Adonai Mitchell 46.5% and Pierce 44.3%. Despite Mitchell getting more playing time, Pittman and Downs owned the target share with 9 and 8 targets, respectively. If anyone is going to take advantage of this beat-up secondary, it’s those two players.

One reason to maybe watch: Last week, we saw the Patriots use Christian Gonzalez to track the Cardinals’ top outside receiver around the field. That worked out well for the Patriots secondary overall and Gonzalez, in particular, showed out.

I can’t think of a worse offensive matchup for a game plan like that than the Buffalo Bills. The Bills don’t have a No. 1 receiver but they can hurt you in so many different ways. We’ve seen them go spread and shred to the wide receivers and then get heavy personnel on the field to attack with the backs in the span of two weeks. Joe Brady is operating at an extremely high level as the Bills offensive play-caller. How they approach this game will be fascinating but it’s worth noting the Patriots have been more vulnerable to tight ends and slot receivers. They have given up 90 yards to slot receivers since Week 10.

One reason to maybe watch: The Lions offense should be the same dynamic force, even with David Montgomery out of the mix. Jahmyr Gibbs may well end up the top back in fantasy football with the backfield all to himself. On the other side, how their defense holds up and whether they continue to lean into their man-heavy tendencies on the backend after cluster injuries will be key. The Lions have played man coverage on 47.1% of opponent dropbacks since Week 10, per Fantasy Points Data, the highest rate in the league. Almost all of the Bears numbers against man coverage are hideous. However, if you’re looking for a silver lining, DJ Moore leads the Bears with 24 first-read targets, receptions and yards vs. man coverage this season, per Fantasy Points Data. And 16% of those targets have been designed plays like screens and such and he’s gained 6.3 yards after the catch per reception vs. man. At the very least, he looks in line for some scammy production.

One reason to maybe watch: The deck has been completely cleared for Brian Thomas Jr. to be the engine of the Jaguars passing game.

The dynamic rookie receiver earned this promotion long before the departure of injured veterans. In my opinion, he’s looked like an even better and more consistent player post-bye. His first-read target share is up from 22% in Weeks 1 to 11 to 37.5% in Weeks 13 to 15, per Fantasy Points Data. It’s pretty easy to see he’s the No. 1 player in the concept now, where it was more spread out with the veterans present before. This boost in usage has been key in offsetting any damage done to his weekly outlook playing in a brutal environment. Thomas gets a matchup with a Raiders defense that’s allowed the 12th-most yards per game to outside receivers since Week 10.

One reason to maybe watch: Other than the fact that this doozy of a game will be the final game that decides a few fantasy football semi-final matchups? I’m tracking whether the Packers can continue to push the ball down the field. While the run game under Josh Jacobs has been electric since returning from the bye, we haven’t seen enough of the successful shots downfield to the outside from Jordan Love. That changed in Seattle last week. Per NFL Pro, Love had his second-highest deep-throw rate (22.2%) of the season. Despite that, he was still extremely efficient overall. The deep passing game being a consistently impactful addition, especially off play-action, is where this offense can really launch to another level.

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