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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 3 Fantasy Football

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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 3 Fantasy Football

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 3 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

We are all rightly excited for the Texans’ passing game but the rushing attack has been a source of steady production. However, this week the Texans may be without both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. That would leave Cam Akers as the top back. Akers had a strong preseason and hung onto this roster. You’d have to be pretty desperate to start him in fantasy but he should not be on waivers this week.

The Vikings defense is one of the toughest for quarterbacks to go against. Brian Flores mixes up coverages post-snap and blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league. After Week 2’s loss, Brock Purdy came away impressed with what Flores did to harass him for four quarters:

C.J. Stroud is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the game. He consistently makes the right read and finds the defense’s weak point. This matchup will be one of the most enjoyable on Sunday.

So far, when he’s under pressure, Stroud has been great at working off-script and looking for his No. 1 wideout in Nico Collins. The star receiver has been targeted on 28% of Stroud’s throws under pressure. Given that the Vikings play more two-high defense than anyone in the league through two weeks, you wonder if slot receiver Stefon Diggs, on in-breaking routes, becomes more of a focal point.

On offense, the Vikings’ running game has been a big surprise through two weeks. Both Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler are in the top six in success rate on zone runs (minimum 15 carries), per Fantasy Points Data. Jones is an every-week starter, while Chandler is one of the better reserve holds. Houston obliterated Chicago’s run game last week and a repeat performance would go a long way to disrupting the passing game.

Sam Darnold is near the top of the league in just about every passing efficiency metric. He’s the most efficient quarterback when throwing to his first read, which makes sense when that read is Justin Jefferson. It sounds like the star wideout will be fine for this game, keeping Darnold in the high-end QB2 range for SuperFlex gamers.

The Eagles come into Week 3 fresh off a letdown, late-game loss last Monday night.

Offensively, the unit moved the ball well on the back of some timely Jalen Hurts runs but clearly missed A.J. Brown in the passing game. DeVonta Smith stepped up in his absence but there was an alarming amount of Britain Covey reps beyond that. For all the attention we’ve rightly given the Saints offense, their defense looks as good as ever this year. They will provide a stiff test for an Eagles offense that didn’t carry over the same appeal it showed in Week 1.

Moving onto that New Orleans offense, they’ve been one of the revelations of the 2024 season. The Saints lead the NFL in Offensive DVOA, EPA per play, net yards per pass attempt with 10.5 (the second-place team is at 8.3) and good old-fashioned points scored.

The Saints are a particularly bad matchup for the Eagles defense, which was obliterated on outside zone runs by Bijan Robinson on Monday night. Alvin Kamara’s 73.1% success rate on zone runs, per Fantasy Points Data, ranks third among backs with 20-plus carries. He’s averaging 5.58 yards per rush. Kamara can post yet another RB1 overall week in this spot, even if the touchdowns come down.

With the run game popping off once again, Derek Carr can look to exploit a defense that’s given up some long gains in the first two weeks with play-action shots. While it hasn’t turned into a big fantasy day yet, Chris Olave’s usage is ideal in this new offense.

I’ll be stunned if Olave doesn’t turn in a strong outing in Week 3. Rashid Shaheed has worked his way up the wide receiver ranks but Olave will get his as the top pass-catcher in this unit.

The Lions offense was one of the best units in the NFL last season, but it’s been spotty so far. The run game has remained excellent but there have been some less-than-stellar moments through the air.

Ben Johnson noted this week that the Lions are over-flush with playmakers, leading to some quiet weeks for some of the star players:

Sam LaPorta’s first read target share has dropped from north of 19% last year, per Fantasy Points Data, down to just over 8%. That’s a huge drop and has coincided with Jameson Williams’ emergence. The deep-threat receiver has made this offense more dangerous, there’s no doubt about that. Yet, you wonder if there won’t be a week where the Lions take a look at the film and offensive distribution and attempt to get back to a more steady style of football.

The Cardinals defense has some holes to attack given their personnel but they’ve played well through two weeks. They mix up coverages on the back end and only blitz on 21.3% of opposing dropbacks. They’ve been one of the best tackling teams in the league thus far. You’re starting all of these Lions players in fantasy but how Detroit attacks Arizona will go a long way to telling us how it may split up work through the year.

On the other side, the Cardinals offense looked like the unit I expected to see this year in Week 2 after a slow Week 1.

In Week 1, per Pro Football Focus, Kyler Murray threw deep on 9.7% of his attempts and didn’t register a completion. Last week, he threw deep on 23.8% of his throws, completing all five for 156 yards and three touchdowns. The Cardinals have the personnel to throw out big players and sting you deep on the back of a good running game. That’s what I expect to see the rest of the way.

The Lions’ defense is an improved unit this season, but they’ve shown some vulnerabilities in the slot. Both Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin registered big games against this unit. Given that the Cardinals want to be a heavy-personnel team, tight end Trey McBride should be the best bet to take advantage of any middle-of-the-field weakness. He runs just under half of his routes from the slot. Meanwhile, interior receiver Greg Dortch is a deep sleeper in this fun and likely high-scoring NFC matchup.

Most important Ravens storyline: The Ravens’ run game hasn’t quite hit the full extent of its potential with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry just yet. Still, they rank fourth in success rate on the season. The Cowboys have been one of the league’s most generous rushing defenses through two weeks, and the Saints were able to push them around up front. This should be a huge week for Henry if the Ravens want to control this script from the jump.

Most important Cowboys storyline: The Cowboys’ passing game has just been a touch shaky thus far. It’s worth noting that we haven’t seen them in a standard game script, as they dominated against Cleveland and were then boat-raced out by the Saints. Odds are that a game against the Ravens should be more competitive. Dak Prescott has only been under pressure on 26% of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus, so the offensive line play has at least been passable. Getting tight end Jake Ferguson back will be a big boost, while the quiet emergence of Jalen Tolbert, who logged nine targets and made some plays last week, would go a long way to pushing this offensive ceiling higher.

Most important Jaguars storyline: The Jaguars are a classic boom/bust passing game right now. While there’s not much in the way of down-to-down consistency, Trevor Lawrence does lead all quarterbacks in deep-throw rate this year. He’s been particularly aggressive throwing down the deep middle of the field. That’s the way you want to beat a strict Cover 2 team like the Bills. If the Jaguars hope to pull off this upset, they’ll need rookie Brian Thomas Jr. to haul in a few deep over or post routes against Buffalo.

Most important Bills storyline: The Bills run game is one of the best in the league. They’re blowing open holes up front for James Cook behind an offensive line that specializes in gap scheme runs. Cook has the third-highest yards before contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data, among running backs with 20-plus carries. He’s not the most powerful back nor does he break many tackles, but when he gets a lane, he gives you explosive runs. Cook looks like a top-12 back for the rest of the season. This should be the week Josh Allen gets more involved as a rusher, too. The Jaguars play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, which incentivizes scrambles from mobile passers.

Most important Packers storyline: It sounds like there’s a good chance Jordan Love suits up for this game. While that’s obviously great news, let’s not immediately shoot the expectations for this passing game back up to the moon. There’s almost no shot that Love is 100% and through two weeks, the Titans are one of the best teams at creating interior disruption. Given that the Packers showed they can win with their run game last week, don’t be shocked if they lean on a slow-paced, rush-first approach to get through this week.

Most important Titans storyline: Calvin Ridley leads all pass-catchers with a 60% share of his team’s air yards. Three of his Week 2 receptions came against Sauce Gardner for 71 yards and a touchdown, making up for one killer drop. Ridley also leads the Titans with a 21.7% target share, while two running backs rank inside the top four. The Titans have been an extreme check-down offense under Will Levis, which isn’t much of a shock. However, this type of vertical game usage is not what we normally expect from Ridley. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets more base route usage when/if DeAndre Hopkins gets healthier but for now, he should be ranked in the same volatile WR2/3 borderline with guys like George Pickens.

Most important Bears storyline: Much has been made of the struggles in the Bears’ passing game but that’s caused many to overlook their miserable rushing game. Chicago has gained 155 yards on the ground at a measly 3.5 yards per carry. The line play is poor and the plan to make DeAndre Swift the clear-cut lead back is not going well. This week, we’ll get a movable force facing off with this stoppable object. The Colts have been run on an NFL-high 76 times this season for 350 yards. They couldn’t stop the most obvious run-first game plan imaginable with Malik Willis under center for the Packers last week. If Swift and co. can’t get it rolling in this spot, then we have a long way to go before we can consider this backfield in fantasy.

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Most important Colts storyline: It sounds like Josh Downs will make his season debut in this contest. When I watch this team play, especially their erratic quarterback, the more I think they need Downs. The second-year receiver is the most consistent separator on the team and is reliably always in the right place. Richardson had a strong connection with Downs on second-reaction plays as a rookie and that just isn’t the strength of the other supporting receivers on this roster like Alec Pierce and AD Mitchell. Downs isn’t a fantasy option this week but he may be on the radar in Week 4 and beyond if he settles into the role I expect.

Most important Chargers storyline: The player deployment in Los Angeles has been close to perfect on offense. The staff has tasked J.K. Dobbins to be the explosive runner in their man/gap scheme and he’s rewarded them with several big gains. Rookie Ladd McConkey has been ideally used as a slot receiver who has already looked like a pro working back to the quarterback against zone coverage. It’s only a matter of time until he pops.

Then, there is 2023 first-rounder, Quentin Johnston.

There’s no denying Johnston had a disaster rookie season but he was also set up to fail with his deployment in the old offense. This staff is using him in ways that make sense with his game and he’s responding while playing fast. The Chargers may not be the sexiest offense in the world but there’s some underlying positive signal here that may manifest in easier matchups. Unfortunately, this game against Pittsburgh doesn’t qualify but we should continue to monitor the player usage.

The most important Steelers storyline: Through two games, the Steelers’ run game hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders. What was expected to be a top-tier ground attack ranks 29th in rushing success rate. There are multiple possible explanations. This staff wasn’t fully prepared for Justin Fields to be the multi-week starter to begin the year and as such, I don’t think the quarterback run game has been all that hot to start. Explosive running back Jaylen Warren is also coming off a preseason injury. Perhaps with more time on task with Fields and a healthier Warren, we’ll see this run game pop. For now, Fields doesn’t have a high weekly ceiling and neither Harris nor Warren are locked-in high-end RB2s.

Most important Dolphins storyline: Skylar Thompson’s career 4.19 adjusted yards per attempt really shows how much juice is removed from the offense when he’s under center. He’s had three years of experience in this system but doesn’t have the same accuracy and quick release Tua Tagovailoa brings to the table. Everyone in this Miami offense gets a severe ding in the projections with a backup under center. Miami ended up signing Tyler “Snoop” Huntley off the Ravens’ practice squad and he may find his way into the QB1 spot soon enough.

Most important Seahawks storyline: DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined for a whopping 68.2% of the team targets in Week 2. The way they were used, working off each other in the route concepts of this new offense, was gorgeous:

The way Ryan Grubb’s offense is structured right now creates so many layups for Geno Smith. He has the second-lowest off-target throw rate in the NFL and his deep-throw rate ranks 21st this year after finishing at 12th in 2023. Smith is also top six in passes over the middle of the field with a +13% completion rate over expected, per Fantasy Points Data. If the Seahawks offense can keep both these results and receiver usage up, they’ll go down as a serious value attack in fantasy drafts.

Most important 49ers storyline: The 49ers’ warship has taken on injuries with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel dealing in the midst of multi-week absences and now George Kittle is dealing with a hamstring. The onus will now fall to the newly extended Brandon Aiyuk to carry the lion’s share of the passing work. The Rams defense has been fillet by perimeter receivers in Jameson Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. the last two weeks. There’s no reason Aiyuk should leave this game with fewer than 10 targets. Meanwhile, rugged and reliable Jauan Jennings will be called upon to step up and may make for a deep flex play.

Most important Rams storyline: How much juice is left in this offense? The Rams will walk into this game without multiple starting interior linemen and both of their star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford is the type of quarterback we can trust to keep an offense viable despite personnel deficiencies but this is getting close to a breaking point. Kyren Williams remains an RB1 based on a projectable workload. Demarcus Robinson is still a flex-worthy WR3 based on volume. How much longer will that last if cracks continue piling up in the dam? We’ll get our first glimpses of an answer this week.

Most important Chiefs storyline: The Chiefs running back rotation is at the forefront of many minds as they prepare to take the field without Isiah Pacheco. There’s little doubt that Andy Reid and co. will plan to roll out a committee to replace their RB1. That doesn’t mean that’s how the story ends. Rookie runner Carson Steele has a chance to grab the bull by the horns and gain an edge if he looks good off the bat:

You hopefully aren’t in a position where you need to start a Chiefs back in Week 3. If you do, Steele is the favorite to lead the team in carries and the trust factor can’t be overstated. No one likes this answer but the reality is that we’ll know much more about this situation after we see the rotation in action than we can possibly guess right now.

Most important Falcons storyline: Kirk Cousins played much better football in Week 2 than in his Atlanta debut. It felt like he continued to heat up as the game progressed, culminating in the two-minute drive to win. If Cousins continues to stack good weeks, the outlook for the entire offense heats up. The panic level for Bijan Robinson and Drake London should be quite low.

The bigger question is Kyle Pitts, who has not been a priority target to this point:

That could change as soon as this week against a Chiefs defense that has ceded production to tight ends in order to glove up wide receivers. Pitts was always going to be more gameplan-specific than Robinson and London, but much of this comes down to Cousins’ play. If the veteran passer can open up the offense more, that downstream effect will carry its way to Pitts.

One reason to maybe watch: Malik Nabers heat-check. Everyone loves Nabers as a prospect so it’s no surprise that your favorite dynasty fantasy analyst was rushing to take a victory lap after Nabers posted an awesome Week 2 stat line. Nabers is averaging an outrageous 50% first-read target share, per Fantasy Points Data, and has been given a mix of targets at all three depths. The opportunity and the Week 2 results are electric; I’d just like to see it against a non-Commanders defense. Cleveland provides an excellent chance to figure out just how volatile Nabers will be in what’s overall still a poor Giants ecosystem.

One reason to maybe watch: The rise of Chris Godwin has caused some consternation among fantasy managers who drafted Mike Evans. There’s a chance that panic lasts another week. The Broncos usually have Pat Surtain shadow top wide receivers and, as you’d expect from one of the game’s premier corners, the results have been positive:

George Pickens did have some strong moments against Surtain and had big plays called back due to penalties. It’s a reminder that a guy as good as Mike Evans can still get his, but it’s a difficult matchup. My enthusiasm for Godwin remains quite high this week and if he again out-produces his teammate, we can’t say it was impossible to see coming.

One reason to maybe watch: The Andy Dalton replacing Bryce Young storyline is obviously fascinating. The Panthers pulled the plug on last year’s No. 1 overall pick with stunning swiftness, as they were simply not playing credible football with Young under center. The question now is whether the veteran quarterback can push guys like Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen and this run game to viability.

The Raiders deserve some publicity here as the much better team. We saw their passing offense came together last week with Davante Adams as the vertical target-earner and Brock Bowers as the underneath volume hog. Those two have combined for a whopping 64.5% of the team’s first-read targets, per Fantasy Points Data, and that will not be changing any time soon.

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