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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 6 Fantasy Football

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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 6 Fantasy Football

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 6 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

Five weeks ago, we probably would not have pegged this game as the best fantasy matchup of the week. And yet, here we are. Jayden Daniels is the QB2, trailing only his Week 6 opponent, Lamar Jackson.

The Washington offense passed a big test by getting past the Browns defense last week. Even if Cleveland isn’t what it was last year, they are a superior unit to some of those Washington dunked on in its previous games. We also saw some continued trends and signals that will matter in this game against a Baltimore defense that quietly allows the most passing yards in the league.

According to Next Gen Stats, Terry McLaurin has run a vertical route on 41.1% of his routes this season. This is the highest vertical route rate since his rookie season (42.7%). McLaurin has caught four of his 12 targets for 158 yards (10th-most in the NFL) and a pair of scores on vertical routes. McLaurin has already generated +7.4 EPA on vertical targets this season, more than what he amassed all of last year. The Daniels-to-McLaurin connection downfield has changed this offense. McLaurin ranks seventh in the NFL in air yards this year with 516; no other wideout has cleared 90.

We also saw continued progress from the rookie quarterback. Daniels has completed seven of eight passes for 113 yards on scrambles this season, He’s rushed for 244 rushing yards on such dropbacks but the fact he’s also choosing to throw when he starts to scramble really matters because that was a weakness in his scouting report.

He’s evolving. Daniels has now generated a +29.5 EPA on scrambles, the most recorded by Next Gen Stats since 2016.

On the Ravens side, we saw plenty of evidence that the offense fields one of the most deadly run games in the league. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson were demolishing teams on the ground. Instead of doubling down on that identity against the woeful Bengals defense, they took to the air.

Jackson threw for 348 yards and four scores in a win over their division rival. This was a reminder that, when this offense can protect up front and are incentivized to throw, they have the quarterback and pass catchers to be dangerous in a good matchup.

Zay Flowers was finally unleashed on downfield routes, Rashod Bateman was actually targeted as the perimeter threat and all three Ravens tight ends got involved. Obviously, the Bengals defense deserves a ton of (bad) credit but their Week 6 opponent in the Commanders rank 24th in dropback success rate allowed. Don’t rule out another big passing day from Jackson and Co.

The target squeeze and lack of volume concerns are always present but these receiving players can be fantasy options if you’re in a pinch.

The Lions are coming off their bye into an ideal spot to do what they do best: pound the rock.

Detroit has been more physical and determined as a run team than we’ve ever seen. They rank second in rushing success rate so far in the young season. The offensive line even gets a boost with center Frank Ragnow, who looks to have dodged a serious injury and may return in this game. A matchup against the Cowboys, who have struggled to defend the run and have now suffered cluster injuries up front is a serious advantage for Detroit. Expect a healthy dose of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

In the passing game, Sam LaPorta should be healthier coming off the bye after entering the season with a few maladies. The problem is, with the persistent use of the ground game and Jameson Williams’ emergence in the passing game, it’s a stretch to imagine his target total of 2023 returning this season. He’s still a fantasy starter at tight end, the ceiling is just diminished.

The Cowboys found something in both Rico Dowdle and Jalen Tolbert. The Week 5 film helped cement that. Expect to see plenty of both in what should be a shootout in this game.

Dowdle has out-snapped and out-carried Ezekiel Elliott in the last two weeks. Elliott is even losing passing-down work to fullback Hunter Luepke, who has run more routes than both backs in the last two weeks. Dowdle may not be an RB1 in fantasy but as long as he holds a 57% share of the carries on an offense that feels like it’s ascending, he will be in lineups.

Tolbert is fascinating, as well.

He stepped up last week to be the leading receiver in the first game after Brandin Cooks was placed on IR. Tolbert wasn’t used as a vertical X-receiver, which is the role I assumed he’d take. Instead, CeeDee Lamb took more reps at X and that opened things up for other pass catchers, Tolbert included.

This Cowboys offense desperately needs more options beyond Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Tolbert is playing like a guy who can be the answer. The Lions’ outside coverage is better than their slot defense but because Lamb plays all three positions, Tolbert gets some reps on the inside.

Most important Bills storyline: The Bills offense got off to a hot start in Weeks 1 to 3 with games against inferior opponents like the Cardinals, Dolphins and Jaguars. It’s been a totally different story against the Ravens and Texans the last two weeks. Look no further than the lack of separation by the outside receivers against quality corners.

The offensive line is also volatile in pass protection, which has made an untenable situation for the Bills on offense. It’s only going to get worse with slot receiver Khalil Shakir in danger of missing a second straight game and James Cook also missing practice this week. We could be looking at a dramatically undermanned Bills offense. Wideouts Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins against Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed is just such a mismatch in the Jets’ favor.

From a fantasy perspective, if Cook misses this game, rookie backup Ray Davis may not be a must-start but he should be 100% rostered. The run game for the Bills is still good and he brings a bruising element to their gap scheme.

Most important Jets storyline: The Jets fired Robert Saleh earlier this week and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich elected to remove Nathaniel Hackett as the play-caller. Ulbrich installed passing game coordinator Todd Downing in the role. Downing has never overseen an above-average offense during his time as a coordinator and his promotion likely doesn’t move the needle much. It doesn’t help that the Jets’ passing-offense design was one of the biggest problems, among many, for the whole operation.

It’s stunning just how little the Jets look to take advantage of the intermediate and short area of the field with their No. 1 wideout. Meanwhile, every other good offense is dominating this area in the modern NFL. This issue compounds a run game that just isn’t going anywhere. Unless Downing’s promotion comes with a serious overhaul of the concepts and approach, we’ll likely see the same old Jets offense against good defenses, especially since this is what Aaron Rodgers wants to do.

Most important Jaguars storyline: Over the last two games, Tank Bigsby has handled 42.6% of the team rush attempts to 36.2% for Travis Etienne Jr. This is not a fluke and it’s not going to change. Bigsby has earned the promotion. His 19% explosive rushing rate entering Week 5 led all running backs and then he added another pair of explosive runs against the Colts.

Bigsby is now leading the NFL in yards per carry. This is a huge transformation, a complete night-and-day difference from his rookie season after he lost his confidence amid mistakes last year. Meanwhile, Etienne has just two explosive runs this season across 69 total touches. Bigsby may not become the bell-cow back for this offense but he has made this thing a split. Both guys look like RB3/Flex options now, even though Etienne was drafted to be an RB1.

Most important Bears storyline: Caleb Williams and the Bears offense is coming off the best game of their season. Of course, it was against the Carolina Panthers but it still goes down as progress for the rookie passer. Williams has gotten better every week, which is what you want to see out of him. The Jaguars don’t profile as a much more difficult matchup. Their defense plays a ton of man coverage but ranks 32nd in dropback EPA allowed. Gashes will be available for Williams through the air.

We also have more clarity about how the Bears want to approach their offense after Week 5. Williams took 30 of his 35 dropbacks from 11 personnel and only three wide receivers saw the field for the unit. Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore all ran a route on 88.6% of the dropbacks. No other receiver ran a route. We want to see all passing offenses as concentrated as possible.

Most important Cardinals storyline: Marvin Harrison Jr.’s production has been up and down this season and that’s primarily because he plays the most difficult wide receiver position. Harrison lines up exclusively as an X-receiver and primarily runs low-percentage vertical routes. Harrison was an ultra-refined college player, so you can ask this incredibly difficult task from the young man, but just because you can, doesn’t mean you should … at least not all the time. Harrison would benefit from more position versatility in his deployment.

The Cardinals have a guy in Michael Wilson who played some X-receiver to end his rookie season in 2023. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has a chance to take this offense to another level by moving these wideouts across different alignments. The Packers rank 30th in dropback success rate allowed, so this is a spot for them to get rolling.

Most important Packers storyline: As of this publishing, we don’t know who will take the field for the Packers at wide receiver. It appears that Christian Watson avoided a serious ankle injury, so he could return this week. Romeo Doubs is back from his one-game suspension. If one or both of those guys get out there, it will be fascinating to see what happens to Dontayvion Wicks. The talented Packers wideout is a strong separator but his ball-skills are a mess. He misplayed some passes and dropped others. If the coaching staff keeps him out there ahead of these other guys, it will be a big statement, because he didn’t make the most of his chances. Jordan Love does share some culpability with Wicks for the misses because he could have been more accurate on a few throws but remember, these guys don’t have as many reps together. All of this can be ironed out in time if Wicks is able to earn it.

Most important Texans storyline: The Texans will play this game without their elite No. 1 wideout, Nico Collins. It’s a huge blow to the offense, despite the reputation of their wide receiver room. Stefon Diggs has been a great addition to the offense but he’s primarily been used as the underneath slot man. To my eye, Tank Dell just hasn’t looked like the same separator this season as he’s worked back from a major injury.

Dell could get rolling at any moment the further he gets from last year’s season-ending leg injury but we haven’t seen the explosive player we saw as rookie, yet. The Texans need that guy back right now. Xavier Hutchinson was the man to replace Collins in the lineup, running the third-most routes on the Texans last week. Hutchinson profiles as more of a big slot receiver who blocks well and wins underneath. With a full week to prepare for life without Collins, I wonder if we see him kick inside and Diggs move outside since the veteran has so much experience out there.

Most important Patriots storyline: Obviously, it’s Drake Maye making his first career start. Much hand-wringing has been done by the national media in the wake of the decision to throw him out there for Game 1 against the Texans. But the reality is, you have to play the guy at some point. It’s past time.

Maye’s ability to create off-schedule plays is needed for an offense that needs juice. He’s an extremely underrated runner at quarterback. Maye ran for 1,147 yards and 16 scores over his final two college seasons. The Texans defense showed last week they aren’t afraid to man up on lesser receiver rooms. Man-coverage defense encourages scrambling from quarterbacks, so don’t be shocked to see Maye take off a few times on Sunday.

Most important Buccaneers storyline: The Bucs are becoming a neat and tidy offense from a fantasy perspective. Considering that their defense struggles to defend the pass, this is important when we’re trying to project this team in shootout game scripts. The wide receiver room is run through Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The duo accounts for 47.1% of the team targets and operates in different roles. The backfield is tidy in its ambiguity. Over the last two weeks, the rushing work has been a near-even split, with Rachaad White owning a 39.2% share of the team carries and Bucky Irving at 37.9%. White is unlikely to completely get phased out of the groundwork, especially after Irving’s late-game fumble in Week 5, and has run 38 routes to 22 for Irving over the last two games. For now, we can consider this a straight committee, which is a muddled picture, but at least we know what to expect.

Most important Saints storyline: The deep passing game was the staple of the Saints’ aerial attack, especially deep shots off play-action. Derek Carr threw deep on 14.8% of his passes through Week 5, a top-six rate among quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus. With Carr on the shelf for multiple weeks, the Saints will turn to rookie Spencer Rattler. Those familiar with Rattler’s game in college know he has no issues letting it rip downfield. The key for the Saints will be keeping this game close so they can take the designed shots to the receivers off play-action. The Bucs rank 26th in dropback success rate allowed and have plenty of issues on the back end. Rattler should have no issues accessing all areas of the field from an arm talent perspective but Todd Bowles can heat up young quarterbacks in long down-and-distance situations and negative game script. Keeping Rattler out of those moments will be critical.

Most important Falcons storyline: The new Falcons coaching staff is finally proactively getting Drake London designed targets as the power slot player. I was desperately wanting to see this throughout his first two NFL seasons but he was often stuck at the X-receiver in Arthur Smith’s offense. This role is going to lead to major production.

London caught eight of his nine slot targets for 117 yards in Week 5. The Panthers’ middle-of-the-field coverage doesn’t stand a chance against Kirk Cousins when he wants to pepper London in this area.

The Bucs play the most zone coverage in the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data, but the Panthers don’t rank far behind at third. Cousins is just so good at reading those coverages out, over-the-middle slot targets will be natural answers. The hulking Falcons receiver looks like he’s in another smash spot and well on his way to returning value at his high ADP.

Most important Panthers storyline: Chuba Hubbard leads all running backs in rushing success rate at 67%. If you’re not familiar with the metric, it’s essentially a measure of gaining positive yards toward a first down on early downs and converting on third down. Hubbard has been the most efficient back in the NFL. Dave Canales has said since he was hired as the head man in Carolina that he was “going to show you how stubborn he can be with the run game,” but Hubbard has made his tendency to stick with the run anything but a reflection of hardheadedness — it’s working. Hubbard should be the focal point of the offensive attack in Week 6 with a matchup against the Falcons’ 30th-ranked run defense in success rate allowed on deck.

Most important Bengals storyline: We do all these thought exercises in the offseason about how the Bengals can evolve on offense in the future with Tee Higgins likely exiting in 2025. Then we get into the games and it’s so clear that not only the offense but frankly this entire operation doesn’t have a prayer unless Joe Burrow is out there throwing haymakers to his two stars on the perimeter. Luckily, Burrow and the offense appear to be clicking and firing off at near the height of their potential. With the way the defense is consistently giving up production on the other side, don’t expect the Bengals offense to take the foot off the gas.

As Scott Pianowski would say, this is your “Fantasy Carnival” team of the year.

Most important Giants storyline: I’m not saying that the Giants are a better offense without Malik Nabers because that would be stupid. However, it’s worth noting that in its first game without the rookie receiver, New York enjoyed its best offensive showing of the season. The Giants ranked fifth in offensive success rate last week in a strong win over Seattle. Malik Nabers has already been ruled out. That’s a shame going up against a Bengals team that is outright disastrous on defense. That said, the fact is Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll put together an efficient attack with mid-level receiver talent, something we saw them do in 2022. The biggest fantasy storyline is Tyrone Tracy, the rookie running back who shined as a pure rusher in his first extended action. Tracy would be a must-start option if Devin Singletary is absent or perhaps even limited in this game.

One reason to maybe watch: The Colts are likely facing a multi-week absence from top receiver Michael Pittman Jr. That’s a brutal development, especially if Anthony Richardson returns in Week 6 against an underrated Titans defense. A possible silver lining here is that Josh Downs should soak up more targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. You can argue that Downs is the team’s most reliable overall player and certainly their best separator.

Downs has run 73 routes over the Colts’ last three games and leads the team with a 27.4% target share. Both Richardson and Flacco have found him to be a comfortable player to look to and an easy guy to with whom to form strong chemistry. Unfortunately, Downs also missed time at practice this week, as did RB1 Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are one of the early leaders for the most snake-bitten teams by injuries on offense this season.

One reason to maybe watch: The Eagles are likely to get both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back coming out of their bye week. For the first time since Week 1, we’ll be able to see what was a fascinating passing game back at full strength. Back in that win over the Packers, we saw both Eagles receivers average over 3.0 yards per route run when the team used motion and Smith became a matchup advantage in the slot. Brown hasn’t played since and Smith missed most of Week 3 and 4 with a concussion. Brown is in a great spot this week with a matchup against a Browns team that plays the most single-high coverage in the league. All the ways the Eagles use motion to gain leverage outside should have him ready to rip big holes in this defense.

One reason to maybe watch: The Chargers are coming out of their bye week, and while this is an early one, we still typically use these games as progress landmarks for rookie receivers. In their Week 4 game, Ladd McConkey led the Chargers in route participation (82.8%) and was targeted on 29% of them, per Fantasy Points Data. On the season, he’s their most productive receiver but his film shows a player who could be even more involved. The Broncos play a ton of man coverage and have two great perimeter corners. Patrick Surtain II has only lined up inside on 8% of his snaps, per Pro Football Focus, so that should keep McConkey out of his crosshairs.

One reason to maybe watch: Justin Fields is coming off his shakiest game as the Steelers starting quarterback in terms of missing some open receivers and mistakes. They’re also dealing with problems in the skill-position department. Najee Harris has looked woefully overmatched as the lead back with Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson out, while there’s something odd percolating between George Pickens and the coaching staff. Fields has a good matchup this week against a Raiders team that plays man coverage at the 11th-highest rate, per Fantasy Points Data, and ranks 24th in rushing success rate allowed. He’s just running out of players he can count on in the Steelers offense, which is also dealing with cluster injuries on the offensive line.

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