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Blackhawks Greatly Overlooked by Season-Opening Playoff Odds

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3 months ago

October 4, 2024

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Blackhawks Greatly Overlooked by Season-Opening Playoff Odds

The Chicago Blackhawks made a number of strong additions in the offseason to start things moving in the right direction. Not only is the team more mature and experienced, there has been a ton of competition and a very bright future ahead.

Despite adding a cast of Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, Ilya Mikheyev, Pat Maroon, Craig Smith, TJ Brodie, Alec Martinez, and Laurent Brossoit, odds have the Blackhawks finishing 29th in the league rather than 31st like last season. While this would be an improvement like Kyle Davidson and the team hoped the moves would lead to, it is still greatly overlooking the group.

According to Moneypuck, the Blackhawks have a 7.7% chance of making the playoffs this season. Only the Anaheim Ducks (4.7%), Columbus Blue Jackets (0.6%), and San Jose Sharks (0.2%) have a worse chance.

The Blackhawks finished last season with 52 points and are projected to finish around 76.9 points this season. The cutoff is usually 92-94 points. It was 98 points in the Western Conference in 2023-24, but only 91 points in the Eastern Conference. This varies, but it is almost always higher than 91.

The team is already projected to have a big jump in points, just not nearly enough to contend for a playoff spot. But that isn’t factoring a lot of different changes the Blackhawks made that will make a difference.

Goalies Are a Game Changer

By making the changes they did, the Blackhawks now have two very capable goalies. This is miles ahead of where the team started last season. Petr Mrazek is a talented and underrated goalie. He was healthy and performed very well throughout the season, giving Chicago a chance to win every night. He and Connor Bedard should share the biggest impact on the team from last season.

While Mrazek played well, backup Arvid Soderblom just wasn’t up to the standard the Blackhawks needed him at. He went 5-22-2 and that’s a record that is nearly impossible to counter and still see the team make the playoffs. He got into 32 games as well since it was the plan not to overplay and potentially injure Mrazek.

The difference this season will make is that Brossoit is more than ready to step into a 1b role and play more than he has. He finished last season as the backup in Winnipeg with a 15-5-2 record, a 2.00 GAA, .927 SV%, and three shutouts. Soderblom had a 3.92 GAA, .879 SV%, and no shutouts. The difference a second strong goalie will make could be astronomical.

Competition & Improvement

Davidson wasn’t repeating the same mistake from last season. Instead of leaving spots open for the younger players to step into immediately, Chicago added more than enough veterans so that one way or another, the spots on the roster were going to be earned.

This has mostly resulted in a little more development time for the young players, but that will ensure the Blackhawks are a solid NHL team and those players just starting out their professional careers are more than ready to step into the NHL in the future.

While the Blackhawks will not only have the best group of a good deal of options to pick from this preseason, players on the team have another year of development and improvement under their belt coming into 2024-25. Players like Bedard, Philipp Kurashev, Alex Vlasic, and Lukas Reichel are expected to take steps forward on top of the experienced veterans filling out the lineup.

Chicago has a 2.3% chance to make the second round, a 0.3% chance to finish first in their division (regular season), and a 2.8% chance to finish in 2nd wildcard spot. Crazier things have happened than a much-improved team having everything come together and get into the playoffs after finishing low in the standings the season prior. And while the Blackhawks don’t need another top pick as Davidson said, the odds of them getting the first overall is still an 8% chance.