Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Game 4 preview: Three things to watch, injury news, odds

Boston fans have the brooms out.

Mavericks fans want to see their team win one at home (then they can start to dream of a historic comeback).

The Celtics have been much the better team through the first three games of the NBA Finals, primarily because of their depth of talent. It’s not just that Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have been great, it’s been the ability to defend one-on-one and not send two to the ball, it’s been guys like Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1 and Jrue Holiday in Game 2 stepping up. Dallas role players have been schooled and their big star, Luka Doncic, has been targeted and exposed by the Boston offense.

Does any of that change for Game 4, or does the conversation turn to where to rank this Celtics team historically? Let’s break it down.

Betting odds for NBA Finals Game 4

Boston Celtics (-115) vs. Dallas Mavericks (-105)
Spread: Mavericks -1 | O/U: 211.5

Injury news, updates

• Kristaps Porzingis is officially questionable for Game 4 as he was for Game 3 (which he missed with a “torn medial retinaculum, allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon”). While Shams Charania of The Athletic reports there is a chance he could play, other reports — and a medical professional NBC Sports spoke with — think it’s unlikely he will return to this series. The injury is so rare that nobody knows for sure, but after winning Game 3 it seems doubtful Boston will push him to play in Game 4. Ultimately, Boston’s team doctors will make the call.

• Luka Doncic is listed as “probable” with a chest bruise he has played through for a few games now.

Three things to watch for in Game 4

1) Which team loses focus

It feels like a game where one team lets go of the rope.

I hope I’m wrong, I hope we get a close, dramatic game that goes down to the wire. I’m just not expecting it.

Does Dallas just roll over after a big run from Boston in the second or third quarter? Expect the Mavericks to come out of the gate with pure desperation and energy, but we’ll find out how mentally tough the Mavericks are when the Celtics make their inevitable run.

Does Boston know in the back of its mind it can close this out at home Monday and take its foot off the gas? I don’t expect it — Jaylen Brown won’t let them, Joe Mazzulla has made the team watch orca and hyena hunting videos just for this moment, and it’s not how these Celtics have played all postseason — but this team historically can have off shooting nights and coast a little. The pressure is not on them in Game 4, which can impact teams.

For the sake of the fans and all of us watching, let’s hope that’s not the case. However, this feels like the night someone lets go of the rope.

2) How well does Luka Doncic defend?

Rarely does a narrative around a player shift as fast as the one around Doncic. He has gone from “Why wasn’t he MVP?” after he carved up very good defenses in the Thunder and Magic to “He’ll never win until he learns to defend better” after Boston has targeted him.

“In this playoff series, when you talk about from the [first round against the] Clippers to today, his defense has improved,” Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said, defending his star. “But when you look at being involved in every pick-and-roll, there’s going to be mistakes that take place. That’s just the game of basketball. We’ve just got to limit those mistakes.

“But he is involved in every possession. That’s what the Celtics are very good at doing, is making sure when they go hunting, they get the guy that they want. And so for us, we’ve got to do a better job of protecting Luka.”

Asking any player to be the primary offensive creator and an elite defender is too much, and Doncic is wearing down and struggling in the fourth (Doncic has four fourth quarter fouls and three fourth quarter buckets in this series). Doncic also grew frustrated, which led to him fouling out of Game 3 when he picked up some bad reach-in fouls and increasingly started barking at the refs.

The problem comes back to Boston’s depth and relentlessness — they don’t roll out a player you can hide a weak defender on, and they are very intentional in how they go after Doncic or any weakness they see.

“Luka is a great player. I’m going to start by saying that. He does a lot for their team,” said Jaylen Brown, the primary defender on Doncic. “Offensively has the ball in his hands a lot. It’s a tough lift for him. He’s been tough. Even with that fourth quarter, those stats, he’s still been able to pretty much get to whatever he wants.”

Boston is not changing its game plan; it will hunt Doncic. He has to defend better, but Kidd is right that Dallas needs to do better in getting him off the ball and finding places for him to catch his breath.

3) Does Jaylen Brown lock down Finals MVP?

Jaylen Brown is the clear NBA Finals MVP frontrunner. He leads the Celtics in scoring, averaging 24.7 points a game while shooting 55.1% this series, all while being the primary defender on Luka Doncic. No other Celtic has been as consistent, and Brown’s
energy has propelled this team.

If the Celtics close this series out with a sweep Friday night — or even if it goes five games — Brown probably gets handed the Bill Russell Finals MVP Trophy.

However, Tatum — despite some shooting troubles at points in the series — is lurking and recency bias is real. If Tatum has a big game (or games) to close out this series while Brown struggles, the ground could shift.

It’s hard to see Brown having that kind of off game the way he has played all postseason, particularly against Indiana and Dallas (he was also the Eastern Conference Finals MVP). His play likely locks up the Finals MVP, but in a series without much drama, this is something to watch.