Bruce Robertson: Scotland has declared a national housing emergency – now what?

In May, the Scottish Government finally acknowledged the scale of the housing emergency. Previously confined to major cities such as Edinburgh and Glasgow, a number of local authorities are now discussing similar declarations and it is now recognised as a national issue. Whilst the emergency stance
from the government is new, we have been living with this reality for some time. The question on everyone’s lips is what next? What are the solutions and how can we deploy them quickly? It is undoubtedly a complex situation but there are some key learnings the government can take forward to increase the supply of housing in line with need.

Making more of less

The crux of the issue is a lack of space. However, when we look at Scotland’s cities more creatively, with an eye to regenerate, suddenly more sites become feasible. Regeneration and conversion schemes will play a vital role in quelling the housing emergency as brownfield sites, such as vacant industrial spaces, offer ideal opportunities for redevelopment. Glasgow is a shining example of a city which has seen an increase in affordable housing as a result of regeneration projects. This said, it has more brownfield opportunities than other cities such as Edinburgh.

SME developers are in a prime position to take on conversion and regeneration projects. What’s more, there is definitely an appetite for a more strategic approach which focuses on local needs and prioritises having the right product in the right location. In fact, this was one of the main takeaways from a Lending Update event we held last year in Edinburgh.

On a more practical level, SME developers require transparent and robust financial and political backing. A wider array of flexible financing solutions will allow them to make a start on developments and provide the housing which is urgently needed.

Student accommodation demand

Students in Scotland have particularly borne the brunt of a lack of residential accommodation. Glasgow and Edinburgh require 22,000 and 17,000 extra beds respectively to meet demand. In fact, when it comes to purpose-built student accommodation, Glasgow has the largest gap between supply and demand in the whole of the UK. In some cases, students are unable to enrol on courses due to a lack of accommodation.

PBSA developers are ready to plug this gap but unfortunately, there are a multitude of planning obstacles which make it difficult for developers to build. SME developers often offer an in-depth understanding of local needs and student accommodation can be an ideal asset class to make the most out of brownfield opportunities and have a beneficial impact on the wider residential housing market.

Sunnier forecasts for Scotland

It is easy to get caught up in somewhat gloomy economic forecasts and forget the many positives that the Scottish housing market has to offer by comparison with the rest of the UK. For example, Savills UK Housing Market Update May 2024 revealed that, at 1.4%, Scotland was the only region to enjoy positive annual growth, as of January 2024. Historically, Scotland has been more resilient than the South of England and continues to be a safe bet for developers.

When we take a glass half-full view, Scotland is in a relatively robust position. The market remains attractive to developers who are eager to plug the gaps in student accommodation and increase housing through regeneration schemes. However, if there is to be progress, SME developers must be supported by reducing planning obstacles and offering more flexible financing solutions.

At the time of writing, a UK General Election has now been called putting a short timeline on political certainty, which the markets already seem to have priced in. With continued falls in inflation too, surely we move ever closer to a long-anticipated interest rate cut. Developers are ready to go, the market just needs to make it possible for them to act.