Bus accessibility, affordability, and reliance across Scotland

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In a 2021 SPICe blog, we explored Scottish Government data on bus accessibility. In that blog, we looked at data on bus accessibility broken down by urban rural classification and by deprivation. This blog updates some of the detail and builds on accessibility analysis by looking at the reliance on and affordability of bus transport.

We wanted to look at the affordability of bus connections between towns and the nearest key services such as jobcentres, hospitals, or banks. However, as it turns out, our work produced more questions than answers, highlighting some important data gaps in the process.

For context, bus fares in Scotland are not regulated, and services and availability are not centrally controlled. In many cases, what is available and the cost of it will depend on small local providers.

Recent statistics

Our 2021 blog was based on bus accessibility data for 2019. Whilst the Scottish Government hasn’t updated this, there are more recent statistics which illustrate the use of buses in Scotland.

The Scottish Transport Statistics 2022 showed that 234 million journeys were made by bus in 2021-22. Pandemic-affected years aside, this is a historic low since the statistical series began in 1989-90. In 2018-19, the last full year of data pre-pandemic, there were 373 million journeys. This incomplete recovery is not surprising as, pre-pandemic, journey numbers have fallen every year since a peak of 487 million in 2007-08 (a 54 per cent drop).

Almost two fifths of these journeys were made under the National Concessionary Travel Scheme. There were 1.5 million people with National Concessionary Travel cards in Scotland in 2022, which mostly focus on providing free travel for under-22s, over-60s, and people with disabilities.

The bus industry received £329 million in funding from local or central government in 2021-22. £223 million of this was Scottish Government support for concessions schemes, £55 million was local authority support, and £51 million came through the Scottish Government’s Bus Service Operators Grant (since replaced by the Network Support Grant). Passenger revenue in 2021-22 stood at £265 million in Scotland.

Transport Statistics show that bus fares in Scotland decreased by 3 per cent between 2017 and 2022 in real terms (adjusting for the effects of inflation). In cash prices, i.e., viewing fare increases in the way that a consumer would, fares have risen by almost 11 per cent over the same time. The impact of fare increases has been slightly less than Great Britain as a whole, where fares have risen by 14 per cent in cash terms and stayed the same in real terms.

Who might rely on buses?

It’s interesting to consider how many people do not have access to a car and might be reliant on bus services. According to the Scottish Transport Statistics 2022, those who had used a bus the previous day were most likely to be those in employment, young adults or those aged 60-69 (i.e., those already targeted by concessionary schemes), and those in the 20 per cent of people with the lowest income.

Adding to that, looking at car use from the same statistical release, people from ethnic minority groups, people looking after the home or family, people who are unemployed, and those on low incomes are the least likely to hold a driving license. Just over a third (34 per cent) of single parents, and 38 per cent of people living in the most deprived areas of Scotland, have no access to a car.

The results from TATIS 2021 are slightly different, as different measures are being used. In this case, a social survey is used. Transport and Travel in Scotland (TATIS) 2021 statistics are based on the results from the Scottish Household Survey. These contribute to the Scottish Transport Statistics, but because the overall collation approach differs, the statistics may tell a different story between the two.

This data also suggests that those on a low income or younger age groups are most likely to use a bus, along with those living in deprived areas. Sample sizes on non-White ethnicities are too low to tell a full story.

The TATIS 2021 statistics look at where people live based on Scotland’s Urban Rural Classification. Unsurprisingly, bus use was highest in large urban areas, with 42 per cent of adults using the bus monthly or more frequently. In small remote towns this was 15 per cent and 17 per cent of people had no access to a car. In accessible rural areas, 17 per cent of people had used a bus within the past month and 6 per cent of people had no access to a car. And in remote rural areas, 12 per cent of people had used a bus recently, and 8 per cent of people did not have the option of using a car.

How bus services support people

The Scottish Household Survey 2021, which is one of the data sources that contributes to the Scottish Transport Statistics , asked people who DID drive how difficult they thought doing day to day activities might be without a car. Unsurprisingly, many people thought it would be very difficult. Almost three-quarters (72 per cent) of people thought going to a supermarket without a car would be difficult, and 57 per cent said going to a GP would be difficult.

The stats show us that although the majority of people in Scotland have access to a car, many, especially in areas where there are no rail services are still reliant on the bus. Many of these people might be the most vulnerable in society.

We were curious about how those reliant on buses accessed essential services, as defined the Scottish Government’s list of key services, like banks and hospitals.

The Scottish Access to Bus Indicator (SABI) can help to set out some of this detail. It gives a score for the accessibility of bus services in each data zone (around 7,000 small areas in Scotland with roughly equal populations) and provides an objective measure of accessibility to public transport by bus in Scotland. The scores range from 1, for least accessible, to 10, for most accessible. This is based on routes, bus stops and timetables. It doesn’t, however, consider the extent to which people rely on buses to reach essential services, or the affordability of connections.

A case study

We started our research with a single town.

Selkirk, a former mill town in the Scottish Borders, situated on the A7 between Galashiels and Hawick. Its population of around 5,380 (including the Bannerfield estate) and its location makes it an accessible small town according to the urban rural classification. The town has had a falling population since the decline of the weaving industry in the 1980s and 1990s. As is the case in many rural areas, Selkirk train station closed to passengers in the early-1950s.

On the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), Selkirk has a mixture of better off and worse off areas. The Bannerfield area, however, is one of the most deprived places in the Scottish Borders. For employment it ranks within the most deprived 10 per cent of Scotland, and for health, income, and crime it ranks within in the second most deprived areas of the country. The SIMD Indicators show what data is used to create these scores.

On the Scottish Access to Bus Indicator, the Bannerfield area scores a 3, where 1 is the lowest possible score and 10 is the highest.

Selkirk has some local services, including a GP surgery and schools, but it has no hospital or Jobcentre. The last bank branch in Selkirk closed in 2022, and the only way to access face-to-face banking in town is a half hour visit from the RBS mobile bank on a Monday.

Both the nearest bank branch and Jobcentre are in Galashiels, five miles away, while the Borders General Hospital is 7 miles away.

We see here an example of an area where those who are worst off, with poor access to transport, are most reliant on buses to access essential services. Unless those people are eligible for concessionary travel, they will be paying £5.80 for each single (one-way) bus journey with Borders Buses they make to access those services (along with accessing employment out with the town).

Can bus affordability and reliance be mapped?

After building our first case study, we had hoped to replicate this in a more systematic and comprehensive way, to show towns and populations across Scotland which might be more reliant on bus services.

What we found is that this isn’t possible. There are some key data gaps. For instance, bus ticket prices are not systematically monitored, and especially not at any meaningful level of disaggregation.

We also considered narrowing down our search to most relevant locations (based on SIMD or SABI scores, for instance). However, again, there are some important data gaps that prevent us from doing this effectively, including the level of detail on access to services used in SIMD indicators.

Instead, we identified a geographically diverse sample of small towns without a rail connection. Then, we checked what key services are not available locally, and where the nearest ones are. Finally, we searched online for the ticket prices for these connections.

The towns that stood out were:

• Newton Stewart, a remote small town in Dumfries and Galloway, has a population of 4,090 and mixed SIMD rankings by area, and SABI score of 4. It costs £7.20 for a Stagecoach day rider ticket to travel 43 miles to the Jobcentre and the Citizen Advice bureau in Dumfries, or to the hospital in Stranraer 26 miles away.
• Banchory, an accessible small town in Aberdeenshire, has a population of 7,440 and has very low deprivation levels. The lowest-ranked SIMD area has a SABI score of 4. To travel the 19 miles to Aberdeen for the nearest hospital and Jobcentre it costs £8.60 for a Stagecoach day ticket.
• By comparison, Portsoy is a remote rural area in Aberdeenshire with a population of 1,690. Roughly half of the population lives in an area that falls within the 4th most deprived in Scotland. With a SABI score of 1, it would cost someone £17.20 to travel 50 miles to the nearest hospital in Aberdeen, and £11.00 to the Citizen Advice bureau in Turriff, 16 miles away, both using different Stagecoach day tickets.
• Inveraray, a very remote rural area in Argyll and Bute, has a population of just 570. It would cost someone £18.30 for a return journey to the jobcentre and hospital in Oban 37 miles away on the CityLink service, and £6.50 to travel the 25 miles to the bank, police station, Citizen Advice bureau, and library in Lochgilphead using a West Coast Motors day ticket. Inverary is a good example of where SIMD data is problematic because the population in the area is so low and dispersed, and it isn’t surprising that it has a SABI score of 1.

What our findings show

This analysis shows that remoteness, rurality, and low population are not necessarily the only indicators of poor bus accessibility, and that bus accessibility and affordability does not necessarily relate to deprivation.

Even using the same bus company doesn’t give any consistency – the Stagecoach operated journeys in our examples range from 8 pence per mile for a return trip from Newton Stewart to Dumfries, to 34 pence per mile to go from Portsoy to Turriff. At 82 pence per mile, the return trip from Selkirk to the nearest hospital is the most expensive of those we looked at, despite Selkirk being an ‘accessible small town’. For context, this is well above the HMRC mileage rate of 45 pence per mile for business-rated driving.

Policy context

It’s important to remember that not everyone will need to pay for their bus travel. The Scottish Government offers free travel for people over the age of 60, and on 31 January 2022, the new Young Persons’ Free Bus Travel Scheme was launched, which provides free bus travel for everyone living in Scotland between the ages of 5 and 21. Before the Young Persons’ scheme was introduced, those aged 16-18 and young volunteers aged 19-25 were also entitled to discounted bus and rail travel.

There are also UK-wide schemes which will apply to Scottish residents. For instance, people who are unemployed and get Jobseekers Allowance or Universal Credit may be able to apply for a Jobcentre Plus Travel Discount card, which gives users 50 per cent off some rail and bus travel.

There has been debate around the capping of bus fares in England, and calls to implement them in Scotland.

The Scottish Government’s response to this has been to highlight that its concessionary bus travel schemes are the most generous in the UK, with free travel for under-22s, over-60s, and people with disabilities. More than 2.3 million people are eligible for free bus travel. As of January 2023, the uptake rate of the Young Persons Scheme was 60.7 per cent, with 69.3 per cent of 12–15-year-olds being card holders, and 71.5 per cent of 16-21-year-olds having claimed their card.

The Under 26 Concessionary Fares Review (August 2022), included a useful overview of concession schemes across all modes of transport, and found that:

• Concessionary fares schemes only provide value where they are matched with available services;
• Concessionary fares schemes are not necessarily available to everyone who experiences cost as a barrier to transport; and that,
• Lack of, and limited, transport services can result in increasing journey costs.

Public transport regulation

It’s interesting to compare the Scottish Government’s policy approach to bus services against other public transport modes:

• In rail services, the Scottish Government took the decision to nationalise Scotrail from March 2022 and, under the grant agreement between the Scottish Government and ScotRail, fare rises – which take effect every January – are capped at the same rate as rises to the Retail Prices Index (RPI) from the previous July. As of the beginning of October 2023, the Scottish Government is trailing a six-month removal of peak rail fares. It also commissioned the Fair Fares review, which has been delayed but is due to report by the end of 2023.
• The Scottish Government also contracts out and regulates ferry services. As of 2015, after several years of pilots, the road equivalent tariff was introduced across all services, meaning that island and remote mainland residents using ferries would pay no more than the equivalent cost of travelling the same distance by road. Fares have been frozen on the on the Northern Isles and Clyde & Hebrides ferry networks since January 2023 (currently until March 2024), and Government subsidised CalMac is currently trialling a scheme which gives islanders priority on booking car spaces on ferries.

By comparison, there is comparatively low regulation of buses beside the concession schemes. Transport Scotland sets the national policy framework on buses which is delivered by bus operators, local authorities, Regional Transport Partnerships, and the regulatory authorities. The majority of bus services in Scotland are operated on a commercial basis by private bus companies. Provided that an operator registers a service with the Office of the Traffic Commissioner they can operate any route they wish to any timetable. Local transport authorities can provide subsidy for services that are not provided on a commercial basis, but this is entirely up to the local authority.

More questions than answers?

As we said at the start of this blog, there are several questions this analysis raises, as well as some data gaps, and our research highlighted .directions that further analysis could explore. These include:

• Exploring the uptake of concession schemes to understand the extent to which they are being used. Currently, data on concession schemes is not disaggregated to a level which might effectively show who might not be captured by schemes. For instance, for adults aged 60+ scheme sample sizes on ethnic minorities are too low to show uptake and use in these groups, and disability is not broken down to subcategories to allow a full understanding of accessibility needs. There is no such breakdown for the other concessionary schemes. It would also be useful to compare reach and uptake of bus concession schemes against those for other modes of transport.
• Further mapping work to gain a more thorough picture of where in Scotland may not be just lacking in bus accessibility, but where people might also be most reliant on using buses to access essential services. This would include towns without rail connections, and areas where services exist, but are limited. At present, SIMD indicators consider people’s access to a GP, Post Office and Retail by public transport, but as our analysis has shown there are other essential services that people may be struggling to reach.
• Understanding what role local authorities play – which ones are subsidising local services, which aren’t, and what impact might their decisions have?
• Comparing the affordability of bus services to nationalised rail services, and to other modes of public transport regulated and subsidised by the Scottish Government.
• Adding to analysis by exploring the equalities, environmental and economic impacts of low bus accessibility.
• Looking into passenger numbers on local bus services, and precariousness of routes, particularly following changes to passenger numbers post-COVID.
• Expanding the affordability analysis by looking at changes to bus fares, especially in comparison to inflation and regional wage growth. It would also be interesting to look at the affordability of buses in urban areas – cities may be better connected, but how prohibitive can the cost of a bus journey be in accessing some of the essential services explored here?

Wojtek Krakowiak and Ailsa Burn-Murdoch, Financial Scrutiny Unit, SPICe

Data notes:

Population figures are taken from NRS mid-2020 settlement estimates for residents of all ages.

Prices correct as of 2 November 2023, taken from operator websites.