CFP players to watch, key to the game: Tennessee at Ohio State

The marquee game of the first round comes with the reward of facing No. 1 seed Oregon. The winner of Saturday night’s game between the Volunteers and Buckeyes will travel to the Rose Bowl to play the undefeated Ducks on New Year’s Day. Tennessee has played in the Rose Bowl twice and its most recent appearance came in 1945.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | TV: ABC/ESPN | Line: Ohio State -7.5 | Total: 46.5

How these teams got here

Tennessee: There wasn’t much drama about the Vols making the College Football Playoff. A 36-23 win over Vanderbilt in the final week of the regular season — after Vandy took a quick 14-0 lead — cemented Tennessee’s spot in the bracket. It simply became a matter of where Tennessee was going to be seeded.

The Vols’ two losses came on the road at Arkansas and Georgia. UT lost 19-14 at Arkansas on Oct. 5 and then 31-17 at Georgia on Nov. 16. UT’s best win is a 24-17 victory over Alabama on the third Saturday in October. That’s the only ranked team Tennessee beat, as NC State and Oklahoma both ended up with 6-6 seasons.

Ohio State: By now you know the Buckeyes lost at home to Michigan in the final week of the regular season. That game denied Ohio State a rematch with Oregon after the Ducks beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in Eugene earlier in the season. Ohio State has two wins over teams in the playoff field; it beat Penn State 20-13 on the road to start November and also easily dispatched Indiana 38-15 at home on Nov. 23. Ohio State has allowed seven or fewer points in six of its 12 games this season.

How the QBs stack up

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava is 199-of-303 passing for 2,512 yards and 19 TDs in his first full season as the Volunteers’ starter. As the run game has powered Tennessee’s offense, Iamaleava has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in seven of Tennessee’s 12 games this season, but he’s also completed more than 60% of his passes in all but one game this season. He’s boosted his touchdown total over the past two games, throwing for four TDs each in wins over UTEP and Vanderbilt to end the season.

Former Kansas State QB Will Howard has had an up-and-down season in Columbus. He’s 227-of-314 passing for 2,860 yards and 27 TDs with eight interceptions. But his performance in big moments could be better. He failed to crack 200 yards passing against both Penn State and Michigan (and threw for 201 yards against Indiana). He had a great statistical game against Oregon, completing 80% of his passes and throwing for 326 yards, but he slid down as the clock expired on the final play and Ohio State didn’t get a chance to attempt a game-winning field goal.

Players to watch

Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson: The junior is one of the best running backs in the country and has been the most productive rusher in the SEC this season. Sampson has 256 carries for 1,456 yards and 22 TDs over 12 games while also catching 19 passes for 141 yards. Sampson has rushed for over 100 yards in all but two of Tennessee’s games this season and has gotten at least 20 carries in eight contests. He’ll get the ball early and often against Ohio State.

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith: The freshman sensation has had a phenomenal season full of spectacular catches. But he’s also been quiet over Ohio State’s last two games. Smith has 57 catches for 934 yards and 10 TDs this season, but he totaled just eight grabs for 69 yards in the Buckeyes’ games against Indiana and Michigan. Those are the two quietest games of the season for Smith and his third-least productive game came against Penn State (four catches for 55 yards). He’s had at least 70 yards receiving in every other game and will need to come up big against a top-10 opponent on Saturday night.

Key to the game

As the over/under indicates, this will not likely be the offensive shootout that many would have predicted before the season began. These two teams have offenses that can hit for a big play at any moment. But both teams have relied on excellent defenses all season long as the offenses have dealt with serious bouts of inconsistency.

That’s a big reason why Tennessee has to avoid the penalties that have plagued it all season long. Just two teams — New Mexico and UTSA — are penalized more per game than the Vols (8.5). Ohio State, meanwhile, is one of the least-penalized teams in college football at just 4.3 flags per game.