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Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Texas vs Arizona State – Best bets, odds, expert picks, QB matchup, trends, and stats
Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has Texas (12-2) in the postseason for the first time since 2009. While UT has run roughshod over the vast majority of their 22nd-ranked schedule, Texas was unable to avenge their only loss to Georgia losing a close 22-19 decision in the SEC Championship. Offensively, the Longhorns rank 8th in SP+, 13th in rushing success rate and 3rd in explosive play rate (9.6%). They were able to produce a staggering 292 rushing yards and 6.1 YPC on Clemson in Round 1 and 243 rushing yards on Texas A&M in the regular season finale, so the Texas run game is finally humming. UT also has the advantage of falling back on an elite secondary that ranks 1st in yards per dropback allowed (4.1) and 3rd with a 5.2% interception rate. They’re no slouches in run defense, ranking 7th in EPA/rush, and their pass rush is getting home at an 8.8% clip (6th in FBS).
In 2023 Arizona State (11-2) earned just two FBS victories. Former Oregon OC Kenny Dillingham took over a struggling program in the wake of HC Herm Edwards’ departure. With a year to reconfigure the roster behind them, ASU experienced one of the biggest turnarounds in college football going from one win to 11 heading into the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. ASU was competitive in both their losses, falling 24-14 to @Cincinnati (31%-win expectancy) and 30-22 to @Texas Tech (63%-win exp.), but went undefeated at home. The Sun Devils’ offense is bolstered by an excellent pass attack that ranks 11th in EPA/Dropback, and an efficient run game that boasts a 52.2% rush success rate. Despite their expert efficiency Arizona State lacks explosion, averaging a middling 8.9 yards per successful rush (98th). Defensively ASU’s secondary allowed an elevated 43.3% passing success rate (97th), while their pass rush recorded a disappointing 30.5% pressure rate (107th) and 4.3% sack rate (114th). WR Jordy Tyson (shoulder) is not expected to suit up, but he’s not completely ruling it out either.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to watch Arizona State vs. Texas – Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
· Date: Wednesday, January 1st, 2025
· Time: 1:00 PM EST
· Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· City: Atlanta, GA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN
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Game odds for Arizona State vs. Texas – Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
The spread opened Texas -13.5 before briefly dipping to -12.5, followed by a market re-correction to the original -13.5. Similarly, the money lines have barely budged from the open of Texas -500 and ASU +550. The game total is still hanging at 52.5, but we’re seeing some books down to 51.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“ASU is covering at a staggering 11-2 rate this year while leaning 8-5 to the Over. However, ASU couldn’t light up the scoreboard against the better B12 defenses, going Under 52.5 against Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Kansas State and BYU. Texas is 9-2 to the Under versus the current line and scored 27 points or less in 5 of their previous 7 games heading into their first-round matchup against Clemson. Throw in the fact ASU ranks top-20 nationally in run-rate and 107th in seconds per play, and I’m not sure they have an extra gear to play catchup without WR Jordyn Tyson if they get down 2 scores. With these factors in mind, I’m taking the Under 52.5 points.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
Quarterback matchup for Arizona State vs. Texas – Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
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Texas: The Longhorns boast one of the most prolific quarterback rooms in the country between starter Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning. Ewers has completed 66.4% of his throws for 2,863 yards, 7.6 YPA and a 26-to-10 ratio. Despite the respectable numbers, his PFF passing grade of 71.2 is a noticeable dip from his 85.6 passing grade from 2023. Ewers is averaging a noticeably low 7.4 air yards per target which ranks 86th out of 89 qualifying signal callers. HC Sarkisian has been fairly conservative with his play calling now that he has a certifiably elite defense to lean on, with the Longhorns throwing 35% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. His 48.6 PFF pressure grade ranks 50th out of 89 qualifiers, a deficiency that was exploited by Georgia’s dominant front line.
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Arizona State: QB Sam Leavitt transferred in from Michigan State in the offseason and managed to win the starting job outright in fall camp. He has emerged as one of the top underclassmen quarterbacks of 2024, completing 63.2% of his passes for 2,663 yards, 8.0 yards per dropback and a 24-to-5 ratio. Leavitt has displayed poise beyond his years, as the first-year starter ranks 2nd nationally with a 78th percentile pressure grade and 13th with a 90.1 PFF overall grade. With his impressive passing acumen, it’s easy to forget just how mobile Leavitt is, having run for 383 yards and five touchdowns with a 78.1 run grade that ranks 17th in FBS.
Texas vs. Arizona State: Betting Trends & Recent Stats
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Texas is throwing to running backs on 22.1% of team pass attempts, 16th-most in FBS. Quintrevion Wisner was targeted 46 time in the regular season, 2nd-most among SEC running backs. RB Jaydon Blue has dropped 6 fumbles since the 2023 season, which leads all SEC running backs over the last two seasons.
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Texas has averaged 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season, 29th-best among FBS skill players.
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Texas are 1-8 (.100) against the spread when in a one score game since the 2023 season, 2nd-worst in FBS. (Average: .469)
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Jahdae Barron led all SEC defensive backs with 5 interceptions this season.
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Texas is winless (0-2) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season, worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .461)
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Texas has allowed 100.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– best in the SEC.
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Gunnar Helm has been targeted 17 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, most among SEC Tight Ends
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Arizona State is undefeated (7-0) against the spread when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .536.
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Arizona State is 4-9 (.308) against the spread when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2023 season, 22nd-worst in FBS. (Average: .437)
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Arizona State’s TEs have 31 receptions in 13 games (just 2.4 per game) this season, 5th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Texas’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs this season, 18th-worst among FBS defenses.
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Arizona State has sacked opposing QBs on just 5.1% of pass attempts this season, 20th-worst in FBS.
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Arizona State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.1% of 334 attempts this season, 10th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.9% of attempts this season, best among SEC defenses.
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Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.2% of 472 attempts this season, 9th-best among FBS offenses. Arizona State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.7% of attempts this season, best among Big 12 defenses.
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Arizona State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 2 of 448 attempts this season, tops in the Big 12;
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BetMGM College Football Highlights: Quarterfinals
Most bet games (tickets)
1. Notre Dame-Georgia
2. Penn State-Boise State
3. Texas-Arizona State
4. Ohio State-Oregon
Most bet teams (tickets)
1. Georgia -1.5
2. Penn State -10.5
3. Oregon +2.5
4. Texas -13.5
Most bet teams (handle)
1. Georgia -1.5
2. Penn State -10.5
3. Texas -13.5
4. Ohio State -2.5
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