College football coaches on the hot seat: Who’s feeling the heat ahead of this season?

As one of the most anticipated college football seasons creeps around the corner, so too does a most unusual coaching hiring cycle. We are a couple months or, perhaps, a few weeks away from the last “silly season,” as it’s known, before college athletics moves into a revenue-sharing model with athletes.

The question looms: Will revenue sharing impact firing decisions and future coaching contracts?

In the last three hiring cycles, colleges agreed to pay out nearly $300 million to fired head coaches, setting a record last year with $132 million in buyout cash — more than half of that going to one man, Jimbo Fisher ($76 million).

Just think: In the new model, that $300 million tab could fund as many as 20 college football rosters for at least a year each.

If the House antitrust settlement is finalized, schools will be permitted next fall to distribute as much as $22 million to athletes in a quasi-salary cap that will escalate each year. That’s an additional expense on athletic departments already financially stressed from overspending on such things as facilities and coaching contracts.

Already, there are signs of cutbacks. For instance, at Texas A&M, some athletic personnel contracts now feature a clause requiring a reworking of the deal if/when revenue sharing begins.

According to several coaching agents and administrators, they do expect schools to agree to fewer long-term, guaranteed contracts, such as Fisher’s deal or ones signed by Brian Kelly at LSU and Lincoln Riley at USC — deals that extend 10 years and feature whopping buyouts.

As for the silly season, maybe administrators will give a longer leash to their guy.

“Will people pay buyouts and then pay buyouts of other coaches when they know there is a $15-20 million rev-share coming?” asked one agent. “Will people do that outside of the Big Ten and SEC?”

Maybe we’ll learn more this year. There are a slew of power conference gigs that could open, at least one of them potentially setting off a domino effect that reverberates from coast to coast.

That job is, of course, Florida.

“Florida gets someone to leave a good job,” said one agent.

But there are plenty more jobs that could open this year. Let’s get to the list, much of which was compiled through conversations with industry insiders.

HOT

Billy Napier, Florida

Buyout: $25-27 million

Gone are the days where a coach automatically gets a fourth season. Napier, known as a patient program builder, feels like he’s got the Gators pointed in the right direction. But it might not matter. He’s entering the third season of a seven-year contract paying him about $7 million in salary. While his buyout is high, Florida’s fan base is restless enough that Napier needs a strong showing to calm the natives (eight wins? Nine perhaps?). The schedule is a miserable slate of top-25 teams, with a final onslaught of Georgia in Jacksonville, at Texas, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss and at Florida State. Whew.

Napier’s situation in Gainesville was made more interesting with the resignation last month of the school’s president, Ben Sasse. How does that impact Napier’s future and that of athletic director Scott Stricklin, the man who hired Napier? Kent Fuchs returns to campus as the interim president. He originally hired Stricklin in 2016.

Dave Aranda, Baylor

Buyout: *estimated at $20-25 million

*Baylor is a private school and thus their personnel contracts are not available for public consumption.

Aranda led the Bears to the Big 12 championship just three years ago, but he followed that with 6-7 and 3-9 seasons, the last of which nearly led to a firing decision from athletic director Mack Rhoades last December. Can he take advantage of a bonus, fifth season? A former LSU and Wisconsin defensive coordinator known for his X’s and O’s, Aranda and the Bears are recruiting well, something the coach himself attributes to renewed NIL resources from school donors and community brands. In fact, just this month, Baylor coaches wore shirts to practice emblazoned with the words, “We pay players.” In a parity-riddled, 16-team Big 12, the schedule isn’t the most difficult. In fact, the Bears’ toughest game is a trip to Utah that will be considered a non-conference game as it was previously scheduled.

Sam Pittman, Arkansas

Buyout: *$8-12 million

*Pittman’s buyout range is so wide because of an unusual buyout clause in his contract. It requires he be owed 75% of his remaining salary if he’s fired with a winning percentage of 50% or more. He’d be owed 50% of his salary if his winning percent is below that mark. He’s 23-25 at Arkansas.

Pittman, a journeyman offensive line coach, resurrected the program with a 9-4 season in his second year in 2021 that included a 4-4 SEC record. It was one of the best stories in college football. Since then, the Razorbacks have won four SEC games in their last 12 tries. On the cusp of a firing last December, Pittman, like Aranda, is getting an extra year to show improvement. That might hinge on his new offensive coordinator, Bobby Petrino, the former Arkansas head coach who many believe could replace Pittman in a return to the big chair. The Hogs’ SEC schedule is brutal enough — Ole Miss, Texas and LSU — but they travel to Big 12 power Oklahoma State in Week 2 as well.

WARM

Justin Wilcox, Cal

Buyout: about $15 million

Wilcox, 36-43 in seven seasons, returned the Bears to the postseason last year for the first time since 2019. He’s well respected in the industry and was even pursued in the past for jobs like Oregon. He’s also got a whopping buyout, a stiff price for a school like Cal, owner of the country’s biggest athletic department debt. Cal’s financial plight got tougher with the move to the ACC, where cross-country travel and a partial conference distribution could cost millions.

Clark Lea, Vanderbilt

Buyout: *estimated at $15-17 million

*Vanderbilt is a private school and thus their personnel contracts are not available for public consumption.

Entering Year 4 in Nashville, the 42-year-old Lea has nine wins. The Commodores followed a resurgent 5-7 season in 2022 with a 2-10 mark last year. Like so many small, private schools in FBS, Vanderbilt and its administration must make a decision ahead of the new revenue-sharing model: invest in football or not. Vanderbilt has shown, to a degree, investment. The school is spending more than $300 million in major upgrades to the football stadium — the biggest facelift in 40 years. Is Lea the right person to lead the program into the new rev-share world? It’s a question that may be answered in the team’s performance this season, when on the schedule are — gulp — teams like LSU, Tennessee, Alabama and Texas.

Kalani Sitake, BYU

Buyout: *estimated at $8-12 million

*BYU is a private school and thus their personnel contracts are not available for public consumption.

It’s hard to see the Cougars parting ways with one of their own and a guy who’s won 61 games in eight years. Sitake won 11 and 10 games in 2020-21 before a slide to 5-7 last year in the first season in the Big 12. The schedule is dicey. BYU gets all the preseason Big 12 favorites: Utah, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Arizona.

Other Power Four seats getting warm: Virginia (Tony Elliott), South Carolina (Shane Beamer), West Virginia (Neal Brown) and Pitt (Pat Narduzzi).

Group of Five seats heating up: Charlotte (Biff Poggi), Marshall (Charles Huff), Rice (Mike Bloomgren), East Carolina (Mike Houston), Temple (Stan Drayton), Southern Miss (Will Hall), Louisiana (Michael Desormeaux), Arkansas State (Butch Jones), Old Dominion (Ricky Rahne), Colorado State (Jay Norvell), Louisiana Tech (Sonny Cumbie), Northern Illinois (Thomas Hammock), FIU (Mike MacIntyre) and Ball State (Mike Neu).