College Football Playoff: Indiana at Notre Dame – prediction, odds, expert picks, QBs, trends, and stats

Indiana (11-1) has taken the college football world by storm in HC Curt Cignetti’s first season at the HC of IU program. The Hoosiers rattled off four straight easy wins to start the year before toppling Maryland 42-28. IU extended their Big Ten-win streak over Nebraska/Washington/@Michigan State before grinding out a taxing 20-to-15 win over Michigan where Indiana carved out a 97%-win expectancy. The Hoosiers’ offense has been one of the most potent units in the country, ranking 1st in success rate (54.8%) and 2nd in EPA/Play. While Indiana’s 40.3 PPG offense gets a lot of attention, their 10th ranked SP+ defense also ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 4th in explosive play rate. If there’s a weakness on each side, Indiana’s run game lacks big play ability ranking 114th in yards per successful rush (8.5), while their secondary is allowing a 61.6% completion rate (84th).

Notre Dame (11-1) has bounced back admirably from a brutal Week 2 loss at the hands of 7-5 MAC program Northern Illinois, winning 10 straight games to punch their ticket to the CFP Playoff. The main critique of the Irish stems from their soft 63rd ranked schedule that includes signature wins over Texas A&M, Louisville and USC. To their credit, all of Notre Dame’s victories have come by at least 10 points or more with the exception of a 31-24 win over Louisville, so they’re certainly handling business. Though ND lost two NFL-caliber tackles from last year’s offensive line, they haven’t lost a step in the run game ranking 2nd in EPA/rush while averaging 6.7 YPC and a sensational 3.94 yards after contact average that ranks number one in FBS. Their secondary is certifiably elite, ranking 1st nationally in passing success rate (29.7%), EPA/dropback and completion rate (48.7%). Their run defense has some issues, ranking 129th in stuff rate and 65th in success rate, but still check in at a rock-solid 11th in EPA/rush.

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Game Details and How to watch Indiana at Notre Dame

· Date: Friday, December 20, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Notre Dame Stadium
· City: South Bend, IN
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN

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Game odds for Indiana at Notre Dame

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

• Moneyline: Notre Dame (-300), Indiana (+240)

• Spread: Notre Dame (-7.5)

• Over/Under: 50.5 points

The spread opened at Notre Dame -8.5 but has bumped down to -7.5 in early trading and could continue to tick down as the week progresses. Indiana’s moneyline opened at +245 and has held relatively steady while Ohio State has improved from -305 to -275. The game total opened at 51.5 and is down to 50.5 across the board at time of publishing.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“A true Cinderella story, Indiana has taken the nation by storm in HC Curt Cignetti’s first season. While the Hoosiers are averaging over 40 points per game, they weren’t able to score with the same potency against Ohio State and Michigan. Notre Dame’s stingy defense has held every opponent except for Louisville and USC under 20 points. However, the Trojans hung 360 passing yards and 35 points on ND last week, who dearly missed CB1 Benjamin Morrison in the contest. I think Indiana can create enough offense to clear their reasonable 20.5 point team total.”

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Quarterback matchup for Indiana at Notre Dame

• Indiana: QB Nathan Rourke spent his first four collegiate seasons at Ohio before transferring this offseason, which has proved to be a brilliant decision with Rourke leading the Hoosiers to an 11-1 record. He’s completing 71.5% of his passes (#4 in FBS) with a sensational 27-4 TD/INT ratio and a 91.7 PFF passing grade that leads the entire nation. He is challenging secondaries downfield too, ranking 8th among Power Four programs with a 10.1-yard ADOT, so his elite completion rate isn’t a product of checkdowns or screens.

• Notre Dame: QB Riley Leonard spent his first three seasons at Duke, breaking out in 2022 but regressing in 2023 due to a nagging ankle injury that hampered his productivity, completing just 57% of his throws with a 3-to-3 ratio. Now completely healthy, Leonard is completing 65.8% of his throws with a 16-to-5 ratio and an 87.6 PFF offensive grade that ranks 9th among Power Four signal callers. His dual-threat mobility allows Leonard to evade the rush with an 11% pressure-to-sack rate (5th in P4) and post three consecutive seasons with a rushing grade of 80% or higher.

Indiana at Notre Dame betting trends & recent stats

• Notre Dame DB Xavier Watts has intercepted 12 passes since the 2023 season, the most among FBS Defensive Players.

• Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% since the 2023 season, the best mark in FBS.

• Jadarian Price (ND) has rushed for 10 or more yards on 20 of his 89 carries this season, tied for the 4th-best among FBS Running Backs.

• Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.6% of 324 attempts this season, 29th-worst among FBS offenses. Indiana’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.0% of attempts this season, 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

• Notre Dame is 19-4 (.792) against the spread when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season, 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .539)

• Notre Dame has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 72 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season, 7th-worst in FBS.

• Indiana’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.4% of 327 attempts this season, 9th-best among FBS offenses. Notre Dame’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season, T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

• Indiana has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 365 attempts this season– best rate in the Big Ten.

• Indiana isn’t just winning games outright, as they’ve gone 9-3 against the spread which is the 2nd-highest cover margin in FBS. The Hoosiers’ prolific offense is also responsible for their 9-3 record to the Over.

• Indiana has tackled opponents for a loss on 82 of 346 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season, 2nd-best in FBS.

• Indiana is 8-1 (.889) against the spread when making 7 or more explosive plays this season, 3rd-best in FBS. (Average: .540)

• Indiana has allowed 99.3 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season, best in the Big Ten.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

“Oregon, Georgia, and Texas are the favorites to win the College Football Playoff. We will be cheering for the chalk as all three of those teams are good results for the sportsbook.” – Cameron Drucker, Senior Trader, BetMGM

Line movement (Open to Now)

• Oregon +900 to +350

• Texas +1000 to +350

• Georgia +500 to +375

• Ohio State +700 to +475

Highest Ticket%

• Ohio State 12.6%

• Texas 10.7%

• Georgia 9.6%

Highest Handle%

• Ohio State 15.9%

• Alabama 13.1%

• Georgia 13.0%

Biggest Liabilities

• Alabama

• Colorado

• Ohio State

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