College Football Playoff: Ohio State vs. Texas – prediction, odds, expert picks, QB matchup, trends and stats

Ohio State (11-2) may have suffered a humiliating flag-planting defeat at the hands of their archrivals Michigan, but they didn’t let that setback obscure the overall goal of winning the National Championship. They snuffed out Tennessee’s passing offense (14-of-31, 104 yards, 0-to-0 ratio) rendering the Vols unable to climb out of an early 21-0 first quarter deficit enroute to a 42-17 first round victory. Against Oregon, DC Jim Knowles held them to -23 rushing yards on 28 carries as OSU opened the game with 5 consecutive explosive 30+ yard touchdowns before the Ducks even scored a point.

OSU’s devastating offense ranks Top 10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and marginal efficiency. The main areas of weakness on offense are the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 78th with a 9.2% blitz down sack rate, and a somewhat elevated 10.2% blown run block rate that checks in at 94th nationally. 
Defensive OSU is elite, ranking first overall in FBS according to SP+. Their secondary is facing the fifth-fewest deep passes in the country, with just 9.3% of passes occurring 20+ yards downfield. OSU’s elite defensive line ranks fifth nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and second with a sensational 9.8%% sack rate, causing teams to rely on quick, structured throws. The Buckeyes are allowing a somewhat elevated 60.1% completion rate (63rd), but still rank 3rd overall in EPA/dropback, so the short yardage checkdowns and screens have not hurt them.

Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has Texas (13-2) in the postseason for the first time since 2009. While UT has run roughshod over the vast majority of their 22nd-ranked schedule, Texas was unable to avenge their only loss to Georgia losing a close 22-19 decision in the SEC Championship.

In the first round of the CFP Playoff, Texas ran for 292 yards and 6.1 YPC against an overmatched Clemson front to cruise to an easy 38-24 victory. It was a much more competitive double-overtime affair in the Quarterfinals against Arizona State, where a late interception and non-targeting call on the same play gave Texas an advantage late in the game that has ASU fans up in arms. The Longhorns hung on to win 39-31 despite being outgained 510-to-375 by the Sun Devils, though some of that deficit can be explained somewhat by game script with Texas being up 17-3 at half.

Offensively, the Longhorns are eighth in SP+, 13th in rushing success rate and third in explosive play rate (9.6%). UT also has a top-flight secondary that ranks first in yards per dropback allowed (4.1) and third with a 5.2% interception rate. They’re no pushovers in run defense either, ranking seventh in EPA/rush, and their pass rush is getting home at an 8.8% clip (sixth in FBS).

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

Game Details and How to watch 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final Texas vs. Ohio State

·       Date: Wednesday, January 10th, 2025
·       Time: 4:30 PM EST
·       Site: AT&T Stadium
·       City: Arlington, TX
·       TV/Streaming: ESPN

Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final Texas vs. Ohio State

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

The spread opened Ohio State -6/6.5, just under the key number of -7 after their complete evisceration of Oregon. BetMGM’s +200 is the best odds you’re getting on Texas pulling an outright upset, while BOL has the best line on OSU at -210. The game total is toggling between the 53.5-to-55 range in early trading.

Expert picks & predictions for Ohio State vs. Texas

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Ohio State has hit another gear in the CFP Playoffs, beating Tennessee and Oregon by a combined score of 83-38. Texas is coming off a harrowing 39-31 double-overtime victory over ASU in a game where they jumped out to a 17-3 halftime lead before stumbling their way through the second half. I have a hard time picking against the Buckeyes considering the constant pressure they’ve been getting while bringing just four rushers. I’m laying the -6/6.5 and taking the Buckeyes.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Quarterback matchup for 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final Texas vs. Ohio State

• Texas: The Longhorns boast one of the most prolific quarterback rooms in the country between starter Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning. Ewers has completed 66.5% of his throws for 3,189 yards, 7.9 YPA and a 29-to-11 ratio. Despite the respectable numbers, his PFF passing grade of 73.6 ranks 51st out of 94 qualifying FBS signal callers and is a noticeable decline from his 85.6 passing grade from 2023. Ewers is averaging a noticeably low 7.8 air yards per target which ranks 82nd out of the top 94 quarterbacks. HC Sarkisian has been fairly conservative with his play calling now that he has a certifiably elite defense to lean on, with the Longhorns throwing 35.1% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. His 48.6 PFF pressure grade ranks 52nd out of 89 qualifiers, so Ohio State’s front-four will be looked upon to bring the heat.

• Ohio State: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons running the Kansas State offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads OSU’s dominant offense that is defeating their opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game, which is the highest win differential in the nation. He’s completing a surgical 72.6% of his throws (2nd in FBS) and is working with future first-round NFL Draft wideouts in Emeka Egbuka and generational freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient pass attack ranks third in success rate (53.4%) and seventh in yards per dropback (8.3) despite throwing just 10.3% of their passes 20+ yards downfield (121st). Howard’s 84th percentile passing grade ranks 11th among power four signal callers and is the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous high being 72.7.

Ohio State vs. Texas: Betting Trends & Recent Stats

• Texas is 2-7 (.200) against the spread when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season, 11th-worst among Power Conference teams. (Average: .315)

• Quinn Ewers has thrown just one interception on 123 attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season, 2nd-best among Power Conference quarterbacks

• Texas is 8-7 (.500) against the spread when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season, 27th-best in FBS. (Average: .425)

• Texas has allowed just 9.1 yards per completion this season, best in FBS.

• Texas has allowed 100.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season, best in the SEC.

• Texas has allowed 17 rushing TDs on 136 carries in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, 2nd-best in FBS.

• Quinshon Judkins has averaged 6.2 yards from scrimmage per touch in the 1st half this season, best among Big Ten Running Backs. TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 20+ yards on 18 of his 274 carries since the 2023 season, 2nd-best among Big Ten Running Backs.

• Ohio State opponents have averaged 10.3 Passing Attempts per TD in the Red Zone this season, best among Power Conference teams. Ohio State’s defense has allowed a completion rate of just 38.7% when defending in the red zone this season,- best among Big Ten defenses.

• Ohio State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams;

• Ohio State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 33 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season, tied for worst among power conference Teams with Rutgers (0-30).

• Will Howard has been sacked 9.0 times on 343.0 pass attempts this season, 3rd-best among Power Conference Quarterbacks.

College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)