College Football Playoff projections: How good are Miami’s chances of making the postseason?

Did Miami’s loss to Syracuse knock the Hurricanes out of the College Football Playoff entirely?

Miami will surely drop from No. 6 after its 42-38 defeat to the Orange. But how far will it fall? And if the Hurricanes are in the provisional 12-team field on Tuesday, will they stay in the official field on Dec. 8?

It may come down to the ACC title game — a game that Miami isn’t a part of. By losing to Syracuse, Miami lost its chance to play SMU for the conference title. The Mustangs will instead play Clemson.

If SMU wins, Miami should have a solid shot at making the field. If Clemson wins, the Hurricanes could be in real trouble. SMU at 11-2 would have a much better case for the final at-large spot than a 10-2 Miami team.

Here’s our best guess for what the bracket will look like in the penultimate set of rankings.

First-round byes

1. Oregon (12-0, projected Big Ten champion)

The Ducks are the biggest lock of anyone to make the College Football Playoff. A convincing win over Washington capped an undefeated regular season and the Ducks head to Indianapolis to play Penn State for the Big Ten title.

2. Texas (11-1, projected SEC champion)

The Longhorns took down Texas A&M on Saturday night and should maintain their spot as the No. 2 seed and also move up to No. 2 in the rankings.

3. SMU (11-1, projected ACC champion)

Welcome to the first-round bye party, SMU. The Mustangs will be the top-ranked ACC team on Tuesday night and play Clemson for the ACC title on Saturday.

4. Boise State (11-1, projected Mountain West champion)

It’s status quo for Boise State after the Broncos beat Oregon State on Friday. Can Arizona State or Iowa State be convincing enough in the Big 12 title game to knock the Broncos from this spot if Boise State beats UNLV on Friday night?

First-round matchups

No. 12 Arizona State (10-2 projected Big 12 champion) at No. 5 Penn State (11-1, at-large)

The Sun Devils are playing the Cyclones for one spot and are hoping for some help from UNLV and Clemson. A loss by Boise State or SMU gives the Big 12 champion a first-round bye. Penn State could even end up as the No. 1 overall seed next Sunday if the Nittany Lions take down Oregon for the Big Ten title.

No. 11 Miami (10-2, at-large) at No. 6 Notre Dame (11-1, at-large)

We don’t think Miami falls below a three-loss team like Alabama or South Carolina on Tuesday night. The committee has generally tiered teams by their number of losses and has had Miami higher than the AP Top 25 voters have. Notre Dame will host a first-round game in the College Football Playoff. It’s just a matter of where the Irish are seeded.

No. 10 Indiana (11-1, at-large) at No. 7 Georgia (10-2, at-large)

The Hoosiers have to feel really good about their playoff chances. They saw teams like Miami and Clemson lose before beating Purdue 66-0. Georgia is probably in the playoff even with a loss to Texas in the SEC title game. If the Bulldogs win they have a first-round bye. If they lose, they aren’t hosting a first-round game.

No. 9 Ohio State (10-2, at-large) at No. 8 Tennessee (10-2, at-large)

Could the Buckeyes go on the road to open the College Football Playoff? We think that’s unlikely. The two SEC title game participants are ahead of the Buckeyes in this projection along with both Big Ten title game teams. If Penn State loses convincingly to Oregon, will the committee keep them ahead of the Buckeyes despite Ohio State’s head-to-head win? Tennessee, meanwhile, should feel pretty confident about its chances of having a home game.