College Football Playoff projections: Is Tennessee stuck on the outside looking in after losing to Georgia?

How would you rank the top teams in the SEC?

Georgia’s win over Tennessee on Saturday was further proof of how even the league is at the top of the conference. The Bulldogs have wins over the Vols and Texas, but lost to Ole Miss and Alabama. The Rebels lost to LSU and Kentucky. Alabama has losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

At the very least, Missouri and LSU took themselves out of playoff consideration on Saturday with their losses. The Tigers from Columbia lost 34-30 after they gave up a late TD drive to South Carolina and LSU lost 27-16 at Florida.

Assuming South Carolina is also out of playoff contention with three losses, there are six SEC teams in the mix for the College Football Playoff. And deciphering how the committee will rank those teams feels like something out of an advanced-level calculus class.

Here’s our best guess as to how the playoff bracket will look Tuesday. The committee could surprise us with Boise State and BYU.

First-round byes

1. Oregon (11-0, projected Big Ten champion)

The Ducks shouldn’t move off the top spot despite a close shave against Wisconsin. Dan Lanning’s decision to go for a fake field goal late in the game would have been the most second-guessed decision of the season had Wisconsin won. Instead, Matayo Uiagalelei sealed the game with an interception and the Ducks head into a bye in Week 13.

2. Texas (9-1, projected SEC champion)

The Longhorns got a brief second-half scare from Arkansas but made that a short-lived experience with a clutch touchdown drive. Texas’ downfield passing game needs to get sorted out, however. Quinn Ewers was 20-of-32 against the Razorbacks but threw for just 176 yards. The Longhorns host Kentucky in Week 13.

3. Miami (9-1, projected ACC champion)

Miami was off on Saturday and should move up a couple spots in the rankings thanks to losses by Tennessee and BYU. The Hurricanes are in great shape to make the ACC title game with two more wins. They hold the tiebreaker over Clemson thanks to a win over Louisville.

4. Boise State (9-1, projected Mountain West champion)

Yes, the Broncos could find themselves in the top four on Tuesday. We’re not sure what the committee was doing last week when BYU moved up three spots after a 22-21 win at Utah. It wasn’t a convincing win, and it was clear from the first set of rankings that the committee wasn’t sold on the Cougars. Given that initial ranking, we think BYU will get dropped below Boise State after it lost at home to Kansas.

First-round matchups

No. 12 BYU (9-1, projected Big 12 champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (9-1, at-large)

Similar to Georgia after Week 12, this could be only a temporary demotion for the Cougars. A win at Arizona State in Week 13 could boost them back up above Boise State. But a loss could be devastating and drop the Cougars out of the Big 12 title game entirely. Ohio State started slowly but scored 21 points in the second quarter to put away Northwestern at Wrigley Field on Saturday. The Buckeyes should stay at No. 2 in the rankings.

No. 11 Georgia (8-2, at-large) at No. 6 Penn State (9-1, at-large)

Welcome back to the playoff field, Georgia. Our line of thinking in the SEC goes like this: The Bulldogs should be ahead of Tennessee because of Saturday’s win and Ole Miss should be ahead of Georgia because of its win in Week 12. And by that logic, you can’t put Alabama ahead of Georgia either. Like Oregon and Ohio State before it, Penn State got a blowout win against Purdue on Saturday.

No. 10 Ole Miss (8-2, at-large) at No. 7 Indiana (10-0, at-large)

Both teams were off Saturday. Ole Miss moves up a spot thanks to Tennessee’s loss and we’d be surprised if Indiana wasn’t the No. 5 team again in the rankings. The Hoosiers head to Columbus in Week 13 for the marquee game of the day. A win puts Indiana in the Big Ten title game against Oregon. A loss means the Hoosiers need Michigan to beat the Buckeyes in the final week of the season to have a shot at the conference title.

No. 9 Alabama (8-2, at-large) at No. 8 Notre Dame (9-1, at-large)

Yes, we’re fully aware that our SEC rankings logic above ignored Tennessee’s win over Alabama. However, we think there will be some recency bias at play with the committee. And that could be devastating for the Vols. Tennessee has games against UTEP and Vanderbilt remaining. A 10-2 season may not be good enough for the playoff if Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia all finish with that same record and the Crimson Tide sneak into the SEC title game.

Alabama had an easy win over FCS opponent Mercer on Saturday, while Notre Dame made quick work of Virginia. The Fighting Irish play undefeated Army in Week 13.