College Football Playoff: Tennessee at Ohio State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QBs, trends, and stats

Tennessee (10-2) obliterated their first three non-conference opponents by a combined score of 191-13. That is not a misprint. Their first misstep occurred in Week 4 when @Arkansas backup QB Malachi Singleton ran for an 11-yard touchdown with 1:11 remaining in the game to 19-14. They churned out a pair of one-score wins over Florida and CFP Playoff snub Alabama, which has unquestionably been UT’s biggest win thus far. Tennessee’s once dominant offense is sustaining drives effectively with a 48.2% success rate, but they aren’t hitting big plays that often, ranking 115th in yards per successful play and 108th in marginal explosiveness. The vaunted Vols defense ranks 4th overall in SP+ while boasting arguably the best run D in the nation, averaging a 26.2% stuff rate (4th) while leading the nation in both yards per rush (3.5) and EPA/rush.

Ohio State’s (10-2) powerful offense ranks Top 10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and Red Zone touchdown rate. The main area of weakness on offense is the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 76th with a 9.3% blitz down sack rate and 55th in overall sacks per pressure (17.3%). Defensively OSU is elite, ranking 1st in FBS according to SP+. The Buckeyes are facing the seventh-fewest number of deep passes in the country with just 9.9% of passes defended coming 20+ yards downfield. Of course, their ferocious defensive line ranks 5th nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and 2nd with a crisp 10% sack rate. The Buckeyes are allowing a somewhat elevated 60.3% completion rate (62nd) but still rank 3rd overall in EPA/dropback so the short completions have not hurt them.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

Game Details and How to watch 2024 College Football Playoff: Tennessee at Ohio State

· Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Ohio Stadium
· City: Columbus, OH
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN

Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for 2024 College Football Playoff: Tennessee at Ohio State

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

• Moneyline: Ohio State (-275), Tennessee (+225)

• Spread: Ohio State (-7.5)

• Over/Under: 46.5 points

The spread opened at Ohio State -7/-238 and has since added the hook at -7.5 and shot up to a market-high of -280 on the OSU moneyline. Tennessee’s ML has improved from +195 at open to +230 at ESPNBet. The initial game total of 46.5 is steadily ticking up and showing 47.5 in some spots.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Five of Ohio State’s last six games have gone Under the 47.5-point game total, with the lone exception being a statement game against Indiana. Tennessee scored 28 points or less against six of their seven SEC opponents, excluding Mississippi State’s pathetic defense. I could easily see an OSU/Michigan type script, with Tennessee’s excellent run defense slowing the game down and shortening possessions. I am backing the Under 47.5 points in a somewhat contrarian play.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Quarterback matchup for 2024 College Football Playoff: Tennessee at Ohio State

• Tennessee: QB Nico Iamaleava arrived on campus last year as a highly touted five-star recruit with a tantalizing athletic profile. After serving as a one-year understudy to Joe Milton, Nico has completed 65.7% of his passes for 2,502 yards and a 19-to-5 ratio as The Vols’ starting quarterback. While his 81st percentile passing grade is a solid mark, HC Josh Heupel has protected Iamaleava by having him attempt 30+ passes just twice this season. His 11.1 ADOT ranks 6th in FBS, proving that he isn’t afraid to be aggressive and take chances down the field. Nico is still adjusting to SEC caliber pass rushers, as he unfortunately ranks 3rd among Power Four signal callers with an elevated 26% pressure-to-sack rate.

• Ohio State: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons running the Kansas State offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason . The former Wildcat now leads OSU’s ninth-ranked SP+ offense that is defeating their opponents by an average of 26.8 points per game. He’s completing a superb 72% of his throws (3rd in FBS) and is working with future first-round NFL Draft wideouts in Emeka Egbuka and generational freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient pass attack ranks 3rd in success rate and 8th in yards per dropback despite throwing just 10.9% of their passes 20+ yards downfield (115th). Howard’s 82.8 PFF passing grade ranks 12th among P4 signal callers and represents the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous high being 72.7.

Tennessee at Ohio State: Betting trends & recent stats

• Tennessee has tackled opponents for a loss on 90-of-422 rushing attempts this year, good for a 21% TFL rate that ranks 2nd-best in the SEC. Ole Miss leads the conference at 26.2%.

• Despite HC Heupel’s reputation for building high-flying offenses, UT is running the ball at above average rates on both standard downs (61.8% = 44th) and passing downs (48.8% = 6th).

• Tennessee RBs have averaged 204.0 rushing yards per game this season, 2nd-best among FBS programs. Boise State leads with 231.5 rushing yards per game from their running backs. (AKA – Ashton Jeanty)

• UT kicker Josh Turbyville has averaged touchbacks on 85% of kickoffs this season, 5th-best among FBS kickers.

• Tennessee has allowed just 10.9 receiving yards per game to RBs this season, 3rd-best in FBS.

• Tennessee has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 350 attempts this season, tied for the best mark among Power Conference teams.

• Ohio State’s opponents are holding the ball for an average of 30.7 seconds per play, which is the longest plays per second faced of any defense in the FBS. Avg = 27.1) The OSU D ranks 1st nationally in points per scoring opportunity (2.48) and Red Zone touchdown rate (34.5%).

• Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.2% of 344 attempts this season, 28th-best among FBS offenses. Tennessee’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.6% of attempts this season, 3rd-best among SEC defenses.

• Ohio State has averaged 12.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season, 22nd-best among FBS skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season, 16th-best among FBS defenses.

• TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 10 or more yards on 26 of his 108 carries this season, best among FBS running racks.

• Ohio State has allowed 13 touchdowns on 377 completions since the 2023 season, best in the Big Ten.

• Ohio State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 29 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season, tied with Rutgers (0/30) for the lowest mark among Power Conference programs.

BetMGM College Football Highlights: First Round

Most bet games (tickets)

1. Ohio State-Tennessee

2. Indiana-Notre Dame

3. SMU-Penn State

4. Clemson-Texas

Most bet teams (tickets)

1. Tennessee +7.5

2. Indiana +7.5

3. SMU +8.5

4. Clemson +10.5

Most bet teams (handle)

1. Tennessee +7.5

2. Indiana +7.5

3. SMU +8.5

4. Texas -10.5

College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)