College football preseason rankings: No. 12 Boise State stands atop Group of Five field

Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.

In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff and the rest of the field will be filled out by seven at-large teams.

Who will lift the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?

Previous previews: Nos. 13-25

No. 12 Boise State

Last season in 100 words

The Broncos got off to a sluggish start a season ago. Boise State was blown out in the season opener at Washington and then lost at home to UCF. A loss at Memphis dropped the team to 2-3 and Boise State needed a late surge to get back to .500.

That late surge came as the team changed coaches. Andy Avalos was fired in November as the Broncos were 5-5 following a win over New Mexico. Boise State won its final two games of the season under interim coach Spencer Danielson to make the Mountain West title game. There, the Broncos beat UNLV.

Why Boise State can make the playoff

We think the Broncos have the best chance of any Group of Five team to make the playoff for a few reasons. Liberty has a great chance to go undefeated in Conference USA again, but the Flames’ blowout loss to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl a season ago may cause the selection committee to value schedule strength more than it did in 2023.

The American Athletic Conference could also prove to have too many contenders at the top. Teams like Memphis, Tulane and UTSA all enter the season with playoff hopes. But it’s easy to see the AAC winner going 10-2 or even 9-3 because of how much parity there is at the top of the conference.

Enter Boise State. Last season was disappointing and it still resulted in a Mountain West title. This year, Boise State returns all 11 starters on a defense that got a lot better as the season went on. The offense will have a new QB in USC transfer Malachi Nelson, but the former five-star recruit should be an upgrade over Taylen Green (now at Arkansas).

The strength of the defense should be a pass rush that will terrorize opposing QBs in the Mountain West. Pass rushers Andrew Simpson and Ahmed Hassanein combined for 19 sacks a season ago, while middle linebacker Marco Notarainni contributed three. Leading tackler Alexander Teubner can make plays all over the field and leads the secondary.

Key player

Jeanty is the best running back casual college football fans haven’t heard of. After rushing for 821 yards as a freshman in 2022, Jeanty exploded for 1,347 yards and 14 TDs on just 220 carries in 2023. He’s also a big part of the passing game. Jeanty had 43 catches for 569 yards and five TDs. He’s the team’s leading returning receiver.

Jeanty is a potential first-team All-American candidate and will again be the focal point of Boise State’s offense. If the Broncos make the playoff and Jeanty has a big season, he’ll get some Heisman votes.

Biggest game

The Washington game a season ago showed that Boise State had work to do and that the Huskies were a force to be reckoned with. Avoiding another blowout loss to the Ducks this season is vital for Boise State’s playoff hopes.

A close loss — let alone an upset win — would go a long way to showing that Boise State is deserving of a playoff berth, especially if Oregon is a national title contender like many expect. In the Mountain West, Boise State’s biggest game is an Oct. 26 trip to UNLV in a rematch of last season’s title game.

Boise State is our pick to make the playoff largely based on a belief the Week 2 game against Oregon won’t be a 37-point loss like it was to Washington and because of a manageable Mountain West schedule. A 12-1 season and a Mountain West title is on the table for the Broncos. And if that happens, it should be plenty good enough to get Boise State in the College Football Playoff no matter what any other Group of Five team does.