College football winners and losers: What we think the first College Football Playoff bracket of 2024 will look like

The first set of College Football Playoff rankings are just days away.

The inaugural release of the rankings for the first 12-team playoff in FBS history are Tuesday night at 7 p.m. There’s nothing else major going on Tuesday, right?

With the playoff expanding to 12 teams, it’s important to note that the playoff bracket will not simply include the top 12 teams in the rankings. The top four seeds are served for the four highest-ranked conference champions while the fifth-highest ranked conference champion is also guaranteed a spot.

That leaves seven at-large berths for the seven highest-ranked remaining teams in the rankings.

Here’s how we think the projected bracket will look like when the rankings are released in a matter of days. Based on how wild this season has been so far, we think the playoff rankings will have some significant movement at the top over the next five weeks.

12. Boise State (7-1, projected Mountain West champion)

This pick is obvious. Boise State has been the best non-power conference team in the country by far and is the favorite to win the Mountain West with Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty. It’ll be a surprise if anyone but Boise State is the group of five representative in the playoff in December.

11. Alabama (6-2, at-large)

Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt looks better by the week now that the Commodores are 6-3 and the Tide shut out Missouri in their last game. A win over Georgia is the best victory anyone in that group of teams has and if past history is indicative of the committee’s future thinking, it will be valued highly. We’re betting the Tide will be the top two-loss team in the poll, though you can make a case for Texas A&M, LSU, Clemson and Iowa State in this spot.

10. Indiana (9-0, at-large)

You can make the argument that the Hoosiers should be even higher than this after their 47-10 win over Michigan State. But Indiana has a golden opportunity to move up the rankings before the season is over with a Nov. 23 game at Ohio State and a potential chance to play for the Big Ten title. As Mississippi State fans would remind you, it doesn’t matter where you are in the first set of playoff rankings.

9. Notre Dame (7-1, at-large)

The Irish still have that Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois hanging over their heads, but there’s been marked improvement in the way Notre Dame has played since a win over Louisville despite all the injuries the Irish have faced. The path to 11-1 is also very clear, with Florida State, Virginia, Army and USC remaining on the schedule. Who would have guessed at the start of the season that undefeated Army would be the toughest opponent out of the bunch?

8. Penn State (7-1, at-large)

The Nittany Lions are now 1-10 against Ohio State in James Franklin’s tenure after the Buckeyes’ win on Saturday. Penn State’s inability to beat top teams is a real thing. But this Penn State team is still really good and could even be penciled into the playoff at this point. The Nittany Lions’ final four games are against Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland. We’re not totally ruling out an upset, but the path is there for an 11-1 season.

7. Tennessee (7-1, at-large)

The Vols scored their first first-half points since Sept. 21 in a 28-18 home win over Kentucky on Saturday. It’s been ugly recently for the Tennessee offense, but the defense is stellar and the Vols have a big win over Alabama. Even if Tennessee loses to Georgia, a 10-2 season could be enough to make the playoff.

6. Texas (7-1, at-large)

The Longhorns were off in Week 10 after beating Vanderbilt a week ago and the schedule looks very favorable over the next three weeks. Texas has games vs. Florida, Arkansas and Kentucky before a road trip to College Station to end the season. That first game against Texas A&M since the two teams were in the Big 12 could very well be a semifinal game for the SEC championship game and a playoff elimination game for the Aggies.

5. Ohio State (7-1, at-large)

The Buckeyes outscored Penn State 20-3 after the Nittany Lions took an early 10-0 lead on Saturday and are now in what appears to be a three-team race for two spots in the Big Ten title game. The OSU offense’s ability to close the game out after a big goal-line stand with 5:13 to go in the fourth quarter is a big boost of confidence after the unit’s second-half struggles in a sluggish win over Nebraska in Week 9.

4. BYU (8-0, projected Big 12 champion)

The Cougars are the lone undefeated team remaining in the Big 12 after Iowa State lost to Texas Tech on Saturday. There are no ranked teams on BYU’s schedule remaining as the Cyclones’ loss now makes them the prohibitive favorites to make the Big 12 title game. Could BYU face Colorado in Arlington? The Buffaloes are now tied for second in the conference at 4-1.

3. Miami (9-0, projected ACC champion)

The Hurricanes keep playing with fire. Duke led at halftime before the Miami offense exploded in the second half on the way to a 53-31 win on Saturday. The Hurricanes have given up at least 30 points in four ACC games so far this season. That isn’t sustainable at all. But Cam Ward is playing like a possible Heisman winner at QB and keeps bailing the defense out. He threw for over 400 yards and had five passing TDs against the Blue Devils.

2. Georgia (7-1, projected SEC champion)

As Miami has been powered by its strong quarterback play, Georgia is looking for Carson Beck to find the form he displayed a season ago. Beck threw the go-ahead TD pass in the Bulldogs’ 34-20 win over Florida on Saturday but also threw three interceptions. He’s tossed 11 picks in his past five games as Georgia’s overall talent and depth have been much more of a reason for the Bulldogs’ success than Beck’s performances.

1. Oregon (9-0, projected Big Ten champion)

This is a no-brainer. We’ll be stunned if anyone else is at No. 1 on Tuesday night. The Ducks have wins over Boise State and Ohio State and took down Michigan 38-17 on the road on Saturday. With Maryland, Wisconsin and Washington remaining on the schedule, Oregon’s got a great path to a 12-0 season. The loss of WR Tez Johnson could be a major concern, however. Johnson suffered an apparent shoulder injury in the first half against the Wolverines and didn’t return to the game. He leads the Ducks with 64 catches. No one else on the team has more than 31.

Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers

Winners

Jacksonville State: Guess who’s tied for the lead atop Conference USA? The Gamecocks moved to 4-0 in the conference with a 31-21 road win over Liberty on Wednesday. Tre Stewart had 232 rushing yards and four touchdowns as the Gamecocks are tied with Western Kentucky for first. The two teams play in the final week of the season and could end up playing against each other in consecutive weeks.

Army: No Bryson Daily, no problem. Daily missed the No. 21 Black Knights’ 20-3 win over Air Force with an injury but the rushing slack was picked up by Kanye Udoh. He rushed 22 times for 158 yards and two scores as the Army defense held Air Force to just 2.9 yards a carry and had three interceptions. Army is now 8-0 ahead of a game next week vs. North Texas. A win there means we’ll get undefeated Army vs. Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23.

UConn: It’s time to give UConn some love. The Huskies are bowl-eligible at 6-3 after a 34-27 home win over Georgia State on Friday night. Mel Brown had 138 rushing yards and a TD while QB Nick Evers had two total touchdowns. The Huskies finish the season with three straight road games, but could conceivably go 2-1 with wins at UAB and UMass and a loss to Syracuse. Just one more win means the Huskies will have their best season since 2010.

Houston: Don’t look now, but the Cougars have a chance to get to a bowl game. Houston got its second straight win and third in four games with a 24-19 upset win over No. 17 Kansas State on Saturday. QB Zeon Chriss was 11-of-11 for 103 yards and a TD and rushed for another as Houston improved to 4-5 overall and 3-3 in the conference. With games against a reeling Arizona team and Baylor before the regular-season finale against BYU, it’s not implausible that Houston could finish Willie Fritz’s first season at 6-6. That’d be a big deal after starting the year 1-4.

Losers

Florida State: It feels like piling on at this point, but it’s remarkable just how bad Florida State is this season. The Seminoles are now 1-8 after a 35-11 home loss to North Carolina on Saturday. UNC RB Omarion Hampton had five TDs as he rushed 32 times for 172 yards and also had three catches for 93 yards. Florida State’s offense continues to be abysmal this season as the Seminoles are the only team in the country to not score more than 21 points in any game this season.

Hugh Freeze: The Auburn coach is haunted by Diego Pavia. The Commodores beat the Tigers 17-7 on Saturday as the Vandy QB beat a team coached by Freeze for the third time in three seasons. In 2022, Pavia was the QB at New Mexico State when the Aggies beat Liberty. In 2023, NMSU won a 31-10 stunner at Auburn. Pavia is one of the most entertaining QBs in college football and Freeze, well, Auburn is only entertaining if you’re an Alabama fan. The Tigers are now 1-5 in the SEC.

Nebraska: A week ago, Nebraska hung tough with Ohio State on the road in Columbus. Saturday, Nebraska lost 27-20 at home to UCLA. QB Dylan Raiola had to leave the game late in the fourth quarter after a big hit and trailed by as many as 20 points in the third quarter. Nebraska is 2-4 in the Big Ten and only needs one more win to make a bowl game. That’s doable, but the Huskers’ remaining schedule contains USC, Wisconsin and Iowa. There’s not a guaranteed win there.

Arizona: It’s getting ugly in Tucson. The Wildcats have now lost five straight after upsetting Utah 23-10 and are 3-6 overall and 1-5 in the Big Ten. Arizona lost 56-12 on Saturday at UCF as the Knights had 308 yards rushing and 602 yards of total offense. Arizona, meanwhile, had five yards rushing thanks to four sacks and 10 tackles for loss by the UCF defense. The Wildcats need wins over Houston, TCU and Arizona State to get to a bowl game.