Dallas Mavericks 2024-25 season preview: How Luka Dončić and Co. return to Finals and win it all

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

DALLAS MAVERICKS

2023-24 finish

Offseason moves

• Additions: Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie

• Subtractions: Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr.

• Complete roster

The Big Question: Can they find the right balance?

For most of last season, the Mavericks looked like a team pulling with equal intensity in opposite directions. A top-10 offense trying to cover for a bottom-10 defense; an MVP-caliber superstar in Luka Dončić and an excellent-when-healthy No. 2 in Kyrie Irving trying to carry a roster otherwise light on offensive creation; capable of toppling titans with breathtaking shot-making, still churning just to stay above .500.

You never knew which Mavs you’d see night to night — a “Schrödinger’s contender” level of uncertainty heightened by persistent injuries. A half-dozen rotation members missed significant time, prompting coach Jason Kidd to cycle through 35 starting lineups, tied for fifth-most in the league. Then, in early March, Kidd shuffled again, flanking Dončić and Irving with go-go-Gadget-armed defender Jones and trade-deadline arrivals Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington.

Jackpot:

The Mavs won 16 of their final 20 regular-season games — including two losses they punted to rest starters — with the NBA’s second-best defense in that span. They ripped through the Western playoff bracket, knocking off the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves while allowing just 111.1 points per 100 possessions — a mark that would’ve finished just outside the top three during the regular season. They’d found a formula: Luka + Kyrie + a massive, athletic defense = winning at a .757 clip, a 62-win pace, during the stretch run.

The math stopped adding up in the NBA Finals. The Celtics helped aggressively off of Dallas’ complementary players, daring them to make Boston pay for loading up to stop Dončić and Irving. They couldn’t: A Dallas team that finished the regular season top-three in 3-point attempts and makes mustered bottom-of-the-league long-range numbers against Joe Mazzulla’s defense, which held the Mavericks to a dismal 106.7 points-per-100 in a gentleman’s sweep, with Washington, Jones, Green and Maxi Kleber combining to shoot 43-for-106 (40.6%) from the field and 16-for-51 (31.3%) from 3-point land.

So: Enter Thompson, who has made the sixth-most 3-pointers in NBA history, has made more triples than anybody but Stephen Curry over the last two seasons, has finished first or second in the league in catch-and-shoot 3s eight times in the last 11 seasons, and who gives Dallas the kind of five-alarm flamethrower off of whom opponents can’t help.

General manager Nico Harrison (who has almost completely transformed this roster in the space of 18 months) is betting that by swapping Jones, Green and Hardaway for Thompson, Marshall (one of my favorite signings of the summer), Grimes (a year removed from shooting 39% from 3 for a playoff team in New York) and Dinwiddie (who shot 40% from 3 across parts of two seasons in his prior stint in Dallas), he has elevated the team’s shot-making and offensive fluidity to a degree that paves the way for a top-five offense capable of standing up against even the NBA’s most malevolent defenses. He’s also betting that, despite the clear point-of-attack downgrade from DJJ to Klay in the starting lineup, the Mavs will still be able to field a top-10ish defense — a unit adept enough at getting stops to survive the gauntlet of four playoff series.

That will demand a lot of Washington, now likely responsible for guarding the opponent’s best perimeter scorers; of rising sophomore Dereck Lively II, a revelation as a rookie who’ll need to take another step as a full-time mistake-eraser; of Kidd, again tasked with finding the right lineups; and, ultimately, of Dončić, now keenly aware of just how uncomfortable it can feel under a championship-round microscope.

It’s a big bet. If it pays off, though, the reward could be a big-ass gold trophy.

Best-case scenario

Klay proves to be exactly the offensive accelerant Dallas bargained for, which — combined with mostly healthy seasons for Luka and Kyrie — produces the NBA’s best regular-season offense. Lively leaps into the All-Defensive discussion, which — combined with Kidd effectively mixing and matching his perimeter rotation to cover for his stars — produces a top-10 defense. Dončić wins MVP as the Mavs top 50 wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2009-10 and 2010-11. Dallas becomes the first Western team since the KD-era Warriors to make two straight Finals — and, this time, has the firepower to finish the job.

If everything falls apart

Thompson struggles with accuracy, shot selection and lateral quickness, grinding both the offensive and defensive gears of what had become a smoothly operating Mavericks machine. Washington can’t replicate Jones’ work at the point of attack, and Kidd has to start robbing Peter to pay Paul with his lineup decisions, searching for workable two-way groupings to no avail. Irving again misses significant time to injury, which again heaps too heavy a workload on Dončić, leaving him sputtering come springtime. The Mavs still have enough talent to get into the playoffs, but lack the flexibility and physicality they found last season, bowing out early to a more well-rounded favorite.

Fantasy spin

Looking beyond Dončić and Irving, Dereck Lively II is Dallas’ next-best fantasy option. Lively opened training camp as the starting center, and being Luka’s primary rim-runner and lob threat has its perks. More minutes should equate to more fantasy production with rebounds and blocked shots.

Speaking of blocking shots, Daniel Gafford is worth drafting, even if he’s seeing fewer minutes in the timeshare with Lively. Gafford has shown he can be a viable fantasy asset in 20 minutes per night.

Lastly, let’s talk about the potential Klay Thompson revival with Dallas. Thompson is coming off his worst fantasy performance since his rookie year, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old looks motivated and hyped for what’s ahead. With so much gravity going to Luka and Kyrie, Klay will have plenty of opportunities to be the 3-point specialist fantasy managers need in the back end of drafts. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

The Mavs have won 50-plus in two of the last three seasons, and this year’s team feels deeper and more potent than those models. Even in a crowded West, I’ll take the over.