Fact or Fiction: The Phoenix Suns have nowhere to go but up

Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.

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Fact or Fiction: The Phoenix Suns have nowhere to go but up

The Phoenix Suns, the NBA’s most expensive roster, who owe $188 million in luxury taxes — as much as the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers combined — are 15-17, outside the Western Conference’s playoff picture.

Is there any hope in the Valley of the Sun?

Phoenix clings to the idea that all is fine once everyone is healthy. Only the New Orleans Pelicans have lost more salary to injury this season, per Spotrac. The Suns are 8-4 when they field Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal together. Their projected starting lineup is 7-3. This is their reason for optimism.

Of course as soon as Booker returned from a sore left groin on New Year’s Eve, Beal left with a hip injury. Beal has not played more than 60 games in a season since 2018-19. He has missed 40% of his games over the past four years and has not been available for more than seven straight games this season. Durant is 36 years old. He has played more minutes than all but 27 players in the history of the NBA. Even Booker has missed an average of 19 games over the past three seasons. They have not been able to stay healthy.

So this year, as last year, we wonder what life might be like for the Suns if only they could find their footing. Durant, Booker and Beal finished last season with a 26-15 record, outscoring opponents by 6.6 points per 100 possessions, enough to reasonably believe they could do some playoff damage together.

Then came the playoffs. Durant, Booker and Beal took the court together and each performed well from an individual offensive standpoint, averaging a combined 71 points on 50/40/89 shooting splits. But as a collective they mustered only 106.8 points per 100 possessions, equivalent to the league’s worst offense, and were worse on defense (124.7 rating), losing in a first-round sweep to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

That trend continues, as the Suns have been outscored by 4.3 points per 100 possessions in Durant, Booker and Beal’s 197 minutes together this season. As we approach this season’s midway point, Phoenix owns a sub-.500 record, a game from the play-in tournament and four from a guaranteed playoff spot.

“It’s never easy, this league,” Suns head coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters after Tuesday’s loss, their third straight and sixth in seven games, via The Arizona Republic’s Duane Rankin. “We have guys who have won at a high level, who have high expectations, high standards. … We’ve got to find ways to get better. These are not easy times, but guys will find a way through it. We’ll find a way through it together.”

You could hear the pleas in Budenholzer’s voice for them to stay connected or get connected or at the very least keep from fracturing fully. It was the same message reserve center Mason Plumlee sent prior to their loss to the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies: “Wins and losses be what they are in the moment, but I really like our team, how we communicate, how we respond. I feel great about us going forward.”

There is what the Suns are telling us and what they are showing us, and what they are showing us is an average team, even when healthy, and they are rarely healthy. For as much movement as Budenholzer has injected into the offense, they are who they were on that end — a top-10 unit that should be better. No amount of motion can alter the fact that their three stars are more redundant than complementary.

And they are bad on defense, a bottom-10 outfit, allowing 115 points per 100 possessions. Worse than they were last season, when their middling defense was a factor in the firing of head coach Frank Vogel. There is no path to a championship-caliber defense in Phoenix, not with the three stars the Suns have at the helm, not with Tyus Jones as their starting point guard, not with Jusuf Nurkić as their starting center.

The second apron, plus a lack of draft assets, makes a move on the margins almost impossible. The Suns, for example, could not compete with the Los Angeles Lakers for Dorian Finney-Smith’s services. And what would that have accomplished anyhow? As it is with the Lakers, marginally better is still sub-contention.

So what do the Suns do? Pay exorbitant luxury taxes this season and next, and then pay Durant at age 38, when his current contract expires, perpetuating mediocrity for the remainder of Booker’s prime? That is an insane strategy, even for a new owner, Mat Ishbia, who seemingly cares not for financial loss.

Yet it is the path the Suns are on.

It took more than three years for the Lakers to unravel the mistake that was trading for Russell Westbrook. If it takes the same amount of time to unpack the deal for Beal, which was undoubtedly also a mistake, Booker will be 31 years old on the other side of it, approaching the end of his current contract.

The idea that the Suns were in on the Jimmy Butler sweepstakes, reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania at one point, was laughable. That or any deal for a star would have required someone assuming the $157 million remaining on Beal’s contract, which is not happening — especially not for a package that elevates the Suns into contention. Nobody is going to do Phoenix a favor for so significant a cost to themselves.

As fresh as the facade may look — Durant, Booker and Beal have played only 53 games together — this is a teardown. There is no road to a championship that runs through an aging Durant and an overpaid Beal. The Suns took two big swings, and given the opportunity they would almost certainly take two mulligans.

If the Suns want to salvage Booker’s prime, there is no option but trading Durant — now, not when he is a 37-year-old expiring contract next season. Maybe he can fetch them some pieces to expedite a rebuild. Worry about moving Beal when they have the flexibility to do so. Hope it does not take so long as to cost them Booker’s faith in the franchise, too. This is the reality the NBA’s most expensive roster now faces.

That is not even a hot take, by the way. The hot take: If winning a title is the ultimate goal, the Brooklyn Nets — the tanking team that traded Durant to Phoenix in February 2023 — are better positioned than the Suns, what with their own draft pick (and a shot at Cooper Flagg), plus a clean salary cap sheet. That flexibility allows for upward mobility, whereas the Suns, well, they are stuck, save for one exit strategy.

Determination: Fiction. The Suns have somewhere to go but up, somewhere they should go: Blow it up.