Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch: Should you add Pavin Smith?

Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where we review the top waiver wire adds and drops for each week of the MLB season.

The premise is pretty straightforward. I’ll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I’ll try to list the category where I think he’ll be helpful or the quick reason he’s listed. My hope is that it will help you to determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs or not.

For a player to qualify to be on this list, he needs to be UNDER 50% rostered in Yahoo! formats. I understand you may say, “These players aren’t available in my league,” and I can’t help you there. These players are available in over 50% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they’re available in many places and that can hopefully satisfy readers in all league types.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Adds

Hitters

Victor Robles – OF, SEA: 34% rostered
(CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME, SPEED UPSIDE)

Robles missed some time this week with a hand injury after one of the dumbest baserunning decisions I’ve seen in years. However, he returned to the starting lineup on Friday and then entered Saturday’s game off the bench, so he should be good to go. He’s an elite steals option with 13 steals over his last 21 games. Over that same stretch, Robles is hitting .475 with 17 runs scored, 10 RBI, and one home run. That has made him the 10th-ranked hitter in standard 5×5 formats. Given his runs and steals upside, he should be rostered everywhere, especially with a final series against the A’s on tap.

Jasson Dominguez – OF, NYY: 29% rostered
(PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, POWER UPSIDE)

We’ve been waiting for Dominguez to be promoted for months and now he has but nobody wants to add him. Dominguez hit .314 with 11 home runs, 43 runs, 35 RBI, and 16 steals in 58 games across three minor league levels (including his rehab games) this year. In his 10 games since being promoted, he’s hit just .219 but he does have a home run and four steals over those 10 games. We know he has true five-category upside and plays in a great home park, so I would go pick him up.

Otto Lopez – 2B/SS, MIA (25% rostered)
(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE)

Otto Lopez has taken over as the everyday second baseman for the Marlins, and is hitting .308 over his last 28 games with 13 runs, 13 RBI, three home runs, and five steals. That’s pretty solid five-category production that has made him the 75th-ranked player in standard 5×5 formats over that span. The Marlins offense isn’t great, but over their final six games, the best two starting pitchers they’ll face are Bailey Ober and Bowden Francis, so it’s not a schedule to run from. If you want speed, you could also turn to Jose Tena – 3B/SS, WAS (17% rostered), who has four steals over his last 13 games. Tena has hit .280 over his last 28 games so the batting average will also help, but those are really the only two categories where he’s giving you much production.

Pavin Smith – 1B/OF, ARI: 24% rostered
(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, POWER/RBI UPSIDE)

Smith is now the 8th-ranked hitter in standard 5×5 formats over the last two weeks and the 81st over the last month, which is his last 23 games. Over that stretch, he’s hitting .321 with five home runs, 13 runs scored, 16 RBI and one steal. Most importantly for his fantasy value, he has been playing every day, even since Lourdes Gurriel came off the IL. Now, that’s not a lock to continue. Since Gurriel has come back, the team has given Gurriel one day off and Jake McCarthy one day off and kept Smith in the lineup, but if Pavin cools down, he will easily find the bench again. You also have to consider that the pitchers he’s set to face for this week include Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, and Michael King. You can take a shot on Smith given his recent run, but I have a feeling this is the week he comes back down to earth.

Luke Raley – 1B/OF, SEA: 24% rostered
(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, POWER/RBI UPSIDE)

Raley has been a regular in the Mariners’ lineup for most of the season, but the production hasn’t been consistent. However, if you look at any of his rolling graphs, you see a steady drop in the strikeout rate and an increase in wRC+ and ISO. As he is making better swing decisions, the power is starting to materialize and, over his last 23 games, Raley is hitting .284 with 11 runs scored, six home runs, 16 RBI, and two steals. Given that he has 11 steals on the year and will chip in some speed; however, this is strictly a daily moves league add for me this week. The Mariners are set to face three left-handed pitchers this week and Raley could sit in all of those games if the rotation keeps as it’s scheduled.

Trevor Story – SS, BOS: 24% rostered
(RETURN TO HEALTH, SPEED UPSIDE)

While the rest of the Red Sox lineup has fallen apart, Story has come back and is hitting .289 over his last 12 games with two home runs, five runs scored, and four steals. With Rafael Devers now out of the lineup, the counting stat production should not be great in Boston, but Story has a decent schedule to end the season and could provide you with a solid batting average and stolen base production in the final week.

Parker Meadows – OF, DET: 21% rostered
(TEAM IS ON FIRE, POWER/SPEED UPSIDE)

I want all pieces of this surging Tigers lineup right now, but I have also been a fan of Meadows’ for a while now. The outfielder is producing solid numbers of late, hitting .292 over his last 12 games with two home runs, 7 runs scored and 7 RBI. His speed has dried up a bit of late, but we know he can run, so there’s a chance he grabs a couple of bags this weekend, and the Tigers have one of the best records in the AL since the All-Star break and are on the fringes of playoff contention, so it’s not bad to pick up shares of this offense right now. Another deeper league outfield option is Mike Yastrzemski – OF, SF (3% rostered), who is seeing a bit of a power surge with five home runs over his last 11 games while driving in 11 runs over that span. He is hitting just .216 in those 11 games, so you have to be OK taking a poor batting average.

Hunter Goodman – C/1B/OF, COL: 20% rostered
STARTING JOB, GAMES IN COORS FIELD)

Goodman continues to play relatively regularly for the Rockies, starting about five games a week at catcher or DH. That’s lovely to hear with Colorado having six games at home this week to end the season. Goodman is the 39th-ranked hitter in standards 5×5 formats over the last two weeks, going 8-for-32 (.250) with five home runs and 11 RBI. His game-to-game results have been inconsistent, but we’ve seen him put up big games at Coors Field, so that’s what you’re banking on here. The six games at Coors are also reason enough to add Brendan Rodgers – 2B, COL (14% rostered) and Charlie Blackmon – OF, COL (6% rostered).

Nolan Schanuel – 1B, LAA: 13% rostered
(CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME, SPEED BINGE)

What if I told you that Schanuel was fourth in all of baseball with five steals over the last two weeks? He only has 10 on the season, so it’s unclear where this came from but perhaps the Angels have just said “Screw it” with their first baseman and decided to let him run like the rest of the team. Schanuel is also hitting .348 over his last 13 games with eight RBI, so there has been some production across the board. His first series this week against the White Sox is appealing, but he could face a trio of Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, and Nathan Eovaldi this weekend, which is less appealing for the left-handed-hitter. You could also add Kyle Manzardo – 1B, CLE (6% rostered) who has settled in as the DH against all right-handed pitchers and is hitting second in the Guardians order while batting .310 over his last 12 games with two home runs and five RBI. The 24-year-old top prospect struggled mightily in his first taste of the big leagues, hitting .207/.241/.329 with seven RBI across 87 plate appearances. However, he has been great at the Triple-A level with a .946 OPS and 20 homers across 83 games, and his bat has always been well-respected by scouts, so it might be time to scoop him up. The Guardians are set to face only right-handed pitchers this week; however, they do only have five games, so keep that in mind.

Jose Iglesias – 2B/3B, NYM: 12% rostered
(STARTING JOB, RUNS UPSIDE)

With Jeff McNeil out for the year, Jose Iglesias is starting every day for the Mets and has gone 21-for-52 (.404) over the last 13 games with 12 runs scored. He’s also chipped in one home run and one steal over that time, but you’re adding him because you know the Mets are going to try and win every game, and his batting average and run production has been really strong. He’s going to move down in the order when Francisco Lindor comes back, but I still think he’s a viable option in deeper formats. I’m less convinced about Luisangel Acuña – SS, NYM (27 % rostered) because he is directly taking Lindor’s spot in the lineup. I know he has been great, hitting .385 with three home runs over his seven games as a starter, but remember that he has some issues with consistent contact and was also just decent at Triple-A this year, hitting .258 with seven home runs, 50 RBI, and 40 steals in 131 games. We know Lindor is coming back to take over shortstop, so where does that leave Acuña? That’s a bit too risky for me in weekly lineup lock leagues.

Jesus Sanchez – OF, MIA: 7% rostered
(POWER UPSIDE, FAVORABLE SCHEDULE

As we know by this point, if Jesus Sanchez has left-handed pitchers on his schedule, you can’t play him. Well, the Marlins have six games next week and none are against lefties, so it might be time to fire Sanchez up. His power has dried up a bit of late, but none of the pitching matchups this week scare me, unlike this past week when he faced some decent arms, so I’m scooping up Sanchez in many formats. Another deeper league outfield add is Garrett Mitchell – OF, MIL (5% rostered), who has seemingly taken a starting outfield job away from Blake Perkins. Over his last 23 games, Perkins is the 70th-ranked player in standard 5×5 formats, hitting .284 with six home runs, 14 runs scored, 12 RBI, and four steals. The Brewers have a solid slate of upcoming arms to face, but they will get two left-handed pitchers, which could mean two games on the bench for Mitchell so keep that in mind.

Ramon Laureano – OF, ATL (7% rostered)
(PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, COUNTING STATS UPSIDE)

Laureano has also taken a starting job away from Jarred Kelenic (again) and is hitting .350 over his last 10 games with two home runs, five runs scored, and eight RBI. With Laureano now as an everyday starter, I think he needs to be picked up in basically all leagues that start five outfielders.

Trey Sweeney – SS, DET (2% rostered)
(STARTING JOB, HOT TEAM, POWER UPSIDE)

We’ve mentioned Sweeney here before, and the way the Tigers are cooking right now, you need to consider adding all pieces of this lineup. Over his last 12 games, Sweeney is hitting .342 with two home runs, six runs scored, and nine RBI. He has had some decent power/speed production in the minors, and with Detroit trying to go all out for every win this week, I’m interested in scooping up shares of Sweeney.

Jonathan Aranda – 1B, TB: 1% rostered
(STARTING ROLE, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE)

It feels like we’ve been talking about Aranda for years now, but the former top prospect has not been able to get it going at the MLB level. However, he seems to be getting another chance for the Rays as the primary first baseman. Over his last 12 games, Aranda is hitting .333 with four home runs, eight runs scored, and six RBI. Obviously, the poor team context around him could hurt his counting stats upside, but the Rays only face one lefty over their final six games, and the pitching matchups set up pretty nicely, so I’d been adding Aranda if I needed a corner infielder.

Pitchers

Lucas Erceg – RP, KC: 47% rostered
Erceg is still the closer for a reeling but solid Royals team. He has just one save over the last two weeks, but has a 1.59 ERA over those 5.2 innings. On the season, Erceg has a 3.53 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts with 11 saves in 58.2 innings, so he has been a solid reliever all year.

Aroldis Chapman – RP, PIT: 40% rostered
Chapman has four saves in his last four appearances, which is, you know, pretty good. He does have a 4.50 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over that span, but if you’re just chasing saves, I get it. You can also go with Porter Hodge – RP, CHC (36% rostered) who has four saves over his last five appearances, but also has a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and closes for a slightly more dependable team.

Luke Weaver – RP, NYY: 25% rostered
It sure seems like Weaver is the closer in New York for now. We can’t rule out Clay Holmes getting the job back, but Weaver hasn’t allowed a run over his last 7.1 innings while striking out 17 batters and picking up the last two saves for the Yankees. There may still be some committee action here, but Weaver looks to be at the top of it.

Edwin Uceta – RP, TB: 21% rostered
Edwin Uceta came off of suspension and was back to his spot at the top of the high-leverage ladder in Tampa Bay. Even with his struggles before the suspension, Uceta has been tremendous for the Rays and has two saves in his last five appearances. He’s stepped into the Rays’ primary high-leverage role with Pete Fairbanks hurt which means he’ll pick up some saves but primarily face the best hitters in the opponent’s order. In the event that causes him to pitch earlier in games, Manuel Rodriguez – RP, TB (4% rostered) has been snagging the save chances. Garrett Cleavinger – RP, TB (4% rostered) has also been getting some save chances when there are left-handed hitters up at the end of games.

Richard Fitts – SP, BOS: 3% rostered
I wanted to highlight Fitts because he doesn’t appear in the streamer list below because he’s not currently set to start a game. However, with the Red Sox out of playoff contention, it seems likely
that the team will shut down Tanner Houck, who has been dealing with a “dead arm” and Fitts will get a start in Toronto to end the season. The rookie has pitched 15.2 scoreless innings in his first three career MLB starts; however, he does have just seven strikeouts over that stretch, so you’re not getting tons of upside there.

STREAMING STARTER OPTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK (ranked in loose order)

I’ve started breaking down the waiver wire pitchers for the upcoming week in a new weekly article, so you should check that out here. However, I’ll copy and paste the list (without the analysis) below.